[PDF] Historical Presidential Betting Markets
Wagering on political outcomes has a long history in the United States As Henry David Thoreau (1848 [1967], p 36) noted: “All voting is a sort of gaming
[PDF] Political betting markets, like the now defunct Intrade, can provide
In this year's midterm elections, those interested in campaigns had a seemingly vast array of polls and predictions to choose from Richard S Grossman argues
[PDF] Manipulating Political Stock Markets - Yale Economics
TradeSports operates one of the largest online prediction markets 7 It ran the most influential market on the 2004 US Presidential election, which attracted more
[PDF] Markets vs polls as election predictors: An historical - UT liberal arts
Prediction markets have drawn considerable attention in recent years as a tool for fore- casting elections But how accurate are they? Do they outperform the
[PDF] NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HISTORICAL POLITICAL
of political futures markets back to 16th Century Italy, 18th Century Britain, and 19th Century United States In the United States, election betting was a common
[PDF] Polls, Prediction Markets, and Financial Variables Roberto - Dialnet
electronic bets on the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election of the United States explain the stock market performance and the currency exchange rates for
[PDF] Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election - Data Science Quarterly
29 sept 2020 · Abstract This paper reviews three election forecasting methods: economic and voter behavior models, opinion polls, and prediction markets
[PDF] Matthew Shaddick transcript - Refinitiv
The worldwide betting markets give Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden a 61 chance of winning this year's U S election, versus 36 for President
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