recession and stock market performance chart


How does the stock market predict a recession?

    The stock market looks ahead, and economic reports are reviews of the past. Stock prices often fall months before a recession begins, which also means that they often bounce back up before the recession is declared over. You can miss an entire downturn if you only follow the news.

Which stocks perform better during a recession?

    Some sectors tend to perform better than others during a recession. For example, defensive stocks —such as consumer staples and healthcare—are typically less affected by an economic downturn than cyclical stocks—such as energy and industrials. This is because consumers still need to buy food and health care even when times are tough.

Is the S&P 500 down in a recession?

    Looking at the past performance of the S&P 500 should give investors reasons to be cautiously optimistic right now. The index is currently down around 18% and was more than 20% below its previous peak just a few weeks ago. There's not much more room to fall for the S&P 500 to reach the median level of decline during a recession.

What is the probability of a recession four quarters ahead?

    As the table indicates, the estimated probability of a recession four quarters ahead estimated from this model is 10 percent when the spread averages 0.76 per- centage points over the quarter, 50 percent when the spread averages -0.82 percentage points, and 90 percent when the spread averages -2.40 percentage points.
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