climate change economic collapse

Will climate change cause economic collapse?
The severe economic and financial consequences of climate change are also clear, particularly given the enormous shortfall to date in spending on adapting to what is to come.
Crop failure will lead to much higher food prices and millions of economic refugees ._{20 juil. 2023}
The immediate loss of life, homes and property is immense — but it is also signalling a new economic era of 'climateflation'.
As scientists declare that this extreme weather is the new normal, climate-induced inflation is here to stay.
The most pronounced impact has been on food prices around the world.

How much money will be lost to climate change?

The global cost of climate change damage is estimated to be between $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion per year by 2050.
This includes the cost of damage to infrastructure, property, agriculture, and human health.
This cost is expected to increase over time as the impacts of climate change become more severe.

How does climate change affect economic losses?

Economic Impact
As the global mean temperature rises, various sectors will be adversely impacted, such as agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality and labor.
Taken together, these effects could cost roughly 0.7 percent of GDP for every 1°F increase in temperature on average.

Extreme weather, climate and water-related events caused almost $1.5 trillion of economic losses in the decade to 2019, up from $184 billion in the 1970s, according to a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report. The real figures are likely to be even higher, as many losses go unreported.

The Need For Spatial-Dynamic Models

Motivated by these observations, we came to realize the need for economic climate assessment models that take both temporal and spatial dimensions explicitly into account. As temperatures and sea levels change, individuals and firms will respond, and an important part of that adaptation will materialize between, rather than within, locations. Incor

Temperature Change Across Latitudes

In 2015, we used this framework to study the effect of global warming on sectoral specialization, trade, and mobility.2As a first pass, a one-dimensional framework that focuses on differences across latitudes and ignores differences across longitudes is reasonable: a mere 5 percent of the world’s variance in temperature occurs within latitudes. Thi

Modeling The World’S Geography

To more precisely quantify these costs and the spatial frictions faced by agents adapting to climate change, we needed a model with realistic geography. Although a one-dimensional model may be enough to analyze the main effects of rising temperatures across latitudes, it does not suffice to convincingly assess the economic effects of climate change

The Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise

One of the main consequences of a warming world is the global rise in sea levels, expected to surpass half a meter on average by the year 2100. To assess the economic impact of the inundation of coastal areas, we joined forces with climate scientists who generated probabilistic sea level rise projections for various locations around the globe.4Alth

The Geography of Global Warming

In recent work, we have turned our attention from sea level rise to global warming, using a more comprehensive and sophisticated assessment model. We allow changes in local temperatures to influence three local characteristics.5First, changes in temperature affect local productivity, with the impact depending on the location’s initial temperature.

Trade and Migration as Adaptation Mechanisms

In addition to migration, trade also has the potential to act as a powerful adaptation mechanism. There are, of course, situations where the scope for trade to mitigate the impact of climate change is limited. For example, if global warming affects the productivity of all local firms similarly and if changes in temperature are spatially correlated,

What’s Next?

We are continuing to improve our climate assessment model, estimating richer damage functions that incorporate episodic effects and their variance, incorporating anticipatory effects on investments, and adding a richer sectoral composition with input-output linkages. Our agenda includes a thorough evaluation of various environmental policies, inclu

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