exchange rate last 12 months


What is the average exchange rate for a 6-month horizon?

    1In one survey, market participants’ forecasts of the exchange rate at a 6-month horizon vary over a high-low range that averages 15 percent. Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot, “Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market,”American Economic Review,80, no. 2 (1990): 181–185.

Is it possible to forecast the exchange rate?

    We should not be surprised that a large proportion of the movement in the exchange rate cannot be forecast by any technique.

How is the exchange rate determined?

    The observed behavior of the exchange rate, complemented by information on the monetary and foreign exchange policy actions taken by country authorities (notably intervention), allow for a judgment to be made in most cases as to whether the exchange rate is determined primarily by market forces or by official policy actions.4

Is the fraction of exchange rate changes unpredictable?

    Even within the theory presented in Chapter 27, a large fraction of exchange rate changes should be unpredictable. However, the forecasting performance of exchange rate models is worse than it should be.Often it seems that the fraction of exchange rate changes that can be predicted is zero, that is, the exchange rate follows a random walk.
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