What is the UK's economic outlook for 2020?
We expect that month-on-month GDP growth contracted in November at -9.4% due to the second national lockdown in England. Our projection of annual UK GDP growth for 2020 is -11.0%. We expect economic output to remain 12.0% below pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.
How much will UK GDP grow in 2021 & 2023 Q1?
In the central forecast, four-quarter UK GDP growth picks up from 0.4% in 2020 Q1 to 1.4% in 2021 Q1, 1.6% in 2022 Q1, and 2.0% in 2023 Q1 (Chart 1.3). Spare capacity is projected to remain in the first part of the forecast period, but as demand growth recovers, slack is eroded and excess demand builds.
How will Lockdown affect UK GDP growth in 2020?
We expect that month-on-month GDP growth contracted in November at -9.4% due to the second national lockdown in England. Our projection of annual UK GDP growth for 2020 is -11.0%.
What is the outlook for 2021?
The outlook for 2021 is more positive, with most sectors expected to return to growth, except at different rates under the ‘quick recovery’ scenario. The hardest hit sectors, such as hospitality and transport, are projected to recover strongly, up from their low base in 2020.
kpmg-uk-economic-outlook-june-2021-report.pdf