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www europarl europa eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/651922/EPRS_BRI(2020)651922_EN pdf
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52525_7climate_change.pdf Agriculture and climate change are inextricably linked - crop yield, biodiversity, and water use, as well as soil health are directly affected by a changing climate. Climate change, which is largely a result of burning fossil fuels, is al ready affecting the Earth's temperature, precipitation, and hydrological cycles. Continued changes in the frequen cy and intensity of precipitation, heat waves,
and other extreme events are likely, all which will impact agricultural production. Furthermore, compounded climate
factors can decrease plant productivity, resulting in price increases for many important agricultural crops.
Impacts of Climate Change
Hydrologic: The hydrologic cycle now includes more frequent
and intense droughts and floods in many agricultural regions. These events can damage and at times even destroy crops.
Heat: Over the next 30-50 years, average temperatures will likely increase by at least 1.0 °C.
Anticipated regionally-dependent changes
include increased number of heat waves and warm nights, a decreasing number of frost days, and a longer growing season in temperate zones. CO 2 : Over the next 30-50 years, CO 2 concentrations will increase to about 450 parts per million by volume (ppmv). The CO2 response is expected to be higher on C 3 species (wheat, rice, and soybeans), which account for more than 95% of world's species than on C 4 species (corn and sorghum). C 3 weeds have responded well to elevated CO 2 levels, symbolizing the potential for increased weed pressure and reduced crop yields.
Crop Biodiversity: The distribution of wild crop
relatives, an increasingly important genetic resource for the breeding of crops, will be severely affected.
Economic Consequences: Price will rise for
the most important agricultural crops-rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. This, in turn, leads to higher feed and therefore meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption, leading to greater food insecurity.
How Do We Predict Climate Change Impacts?
Climate models have been developed that consider social and economic factors (populat ion and carbon emissions). By combining these factors with an understanding of global and regional climate science, experts have developed climate scenarios that express the potential for different behaviors to impact climate patterns. Climate scenarios have the ability to inform our choices about the likely impacts of temperature, precipitation, and seasonality on food production. They also allow us to guide agricultural sectors on the best methods to adapt to various climate consequences by evaluating impacts and identifying trade offs.
What are the Agricultural Impacts and Tradeoffs?
regions and crops will benefit, most will not. 2 are projected to stimulate growth and improve water use efficiency in some crop species, climate impacts, particularly heat waves, droughts and flooding, will likely dampen yield potential.
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and insect pest ranges and seasons, and other alterations in crop agroec osystems.
How Can Agriculture Adapt?
Adaptation strategies are short and long-term changes to human activitie s that respond to the in water infrastructure, emergency preparation for and response to extre me weather events, development of resilient crop varieties that tolerate temperature and pr ecipitation stresses, and new or improved land use and management practices.
How will Climate Change Affect Agriculture?
Tools for Adaptation
varieties is a key tool for adapting agriculture to a changing climate. History and current breeding experience indicate that natural biodiversity within crops has allowed for plant adaptation to different conditions, providing clear evidence that plant breeding has great potential to aide in the adaptation of crops to climate change. development is another tool that can help agriculture adapt. For example the use of crop mixtures that have several crops growing at one time can help systems exhibit greater durability during periods of high water or heat stress.
What Are Our
Research and
Development
Needs?
resistant crops that have been tested for strong yields when subjected to periods of extended water shortage. nitrogen and water use efficiency and development of cost-efficient nitrogen uptake delivery systems and low-cost, high efficiency irrigation techniques and dissemination efforts, using standard data protocols, to assess the performance of existing and new genetic material and management systems in today's range of agroclimatic conditions for resistance to new diseases and pests and to address changes in pollinator distribution have been identified as avenues to confront adaptation of crops in the face of climate change. tools that incorporate the biophysical constraints that affect agricultural productivity and include climate and socioeconomic scenarios, including improved characterization of policy and program environments and options.
Biographies of Speakers
Dr. Paul Gepts
Sciences / MS1
international research and teaching program focused on the evolution of crops under cultivation which are important to human diets around the world. A widely published researcher and co-author of a background chapter evaluating the effects of transgenic maize on maize diversity in Mexico for elected fellow of the American Association of the Advancement of Science and the American Society of Agronomy.
Dr. Cesar Izaurralde
Laboratory Fellow
Pacific Northwest Nat'l Lab and Univ. of Maryland
in agronomy, soil science, and ecosystem modeling.
Gerald (Jerry) Nelson
and research experience in the areas of agriculture, policy analysis, la nd and spatially explicit assessments of potential adaptation and mitigatio n programs and policies.
Dr. Cynthia Rosenzweig
national, and international studies of climate change impacts and adapta tion. the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.
Tamara Wagester
The Council on Food,Agricultural
Dr. Karl M. Glasener
American Society of Agronomy
Crop Science Society of America
Soil Science Society of America
www.soils.org
Kasey White
Senior Program Associate
Center for Science, Technology,
and Congress
American Association for
the Advancement of Science C 3 and C 4 carbon fixation are biochemical mechanisms in plants that fix CO 2 to make carbohydrates through photosynthesis. 3 plants take CO 2 directly from the air during carbohydrate production whereas C 4 plants first concentrate CO 2 and produce malate, an organic compound, inside the plant, which then enters the photosynthesis cycle. Thus, C 4 plants will respond less to increased CO 2 levels.
Cropping systems
determine how crops are grown, by determining the arrangement of crops in time and space and the way in which they are planted (density), fertilized, irrigated, weeded, and harvested.
Climate Change Documents PDF, PPT , Doc