[PDF] Logistics The revolution of a rising market - Barcelona Catalonia

2488_3ES_Report_Logistics_2017.pdf

Logistics. The revolution of a rising market

March 2018

2 Logistics Report Spain | 2017

Logistics Report Spain | 2017 3

1. Economic context

2. The e-commerce

3. Infrastructure and transport

4. Where are the leading logistics areas?

5. The occupier logistic market

5.1. Take-up of logistics spaces

5.2. Evolution of rental levels

5.3. Immediate and future logistics offer

6. Logistics Hotspots 2017

7. Investment market

8. Challenges and opportunities

8.1. IFRS 16: a new era for leases

8.2. City logistics

4 Logistics Report Spain | 20174 Logistics Report Spain | 2017

01. Economic context

Logistics Report Spain | 2017 5Logistics Report Spain | 2017 5

Economic fundamentals

underpin the sector growth

The Spanish economy grew at a

healthy pace in 2017. GDP was up 3.1%

YoY, according to Oxford Economics,

which is 7 basis points higher than the

EU average of 2.4% YoY.

Domestic demand was the main driver

of growth in 2017, up 2.7% versus 2016.

Private consumption remained strong,

ǗǽǛʢǾƜ

formation (investment) rose 4.6% YoY, according to Oxford Economics. The number of people in work grew by

2.65% YoY in the last quarter of 2017,

taking the unemployment rate down to

16.55%.

Ɯ improved economic landscape, which is underpinned by a pick-up in consumer spending. The Industrial Production

Index rose 3% over the course of the

year to hit pre-crisis levels. According to data issued by Spain's National

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positive across all industrial sectors, especially consumer durables (5.6%) and intermediate goods (5.3%). The

Purchasing Managers' Index picked up

in December 2017, thanks to stronger commercial activity and a robust increase in new orders.

The global context remains strong and

stable which, coupled with greater

ƜǾ

to a rise in exports in 2017 of 5.3% YoY, the highest growth in six years. Imports have also grown (+4.1% YoY), which has driven demand for logistics space. F GDP, consumer spending and gross capital formation in Spain*, % YoY

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GDPConsumptionInvestment

-10-8-6-4-202468

20122013201420152016201620172018

6 Logistics Report Spain | 2017

Source: Oxford EconomicsSource: Oxford Economics

The logistics sector is particularly

sensitive to oil prices, as they impact both supply (industrial production, services and structural concerns) and demand, owing to their impact on consumer purchasing power. The sector has benefited from oil prices, given that a barrel of Brent stood at $66.20 at the end of 2017, still some distance from the all-time high reached in 2012.

ǾƝ

1.1% YoY in December, down 6 tenths of

a percentage point on November, due primarily to the fall in energy prices. The healthy economic data and the solid performance of the sector are

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industrial companies, which has grown at a good pace since 2013 to reach

128.8 points at the end of 2017.

Exports and imports in Spain (% YoY)

ExportsImports

-10-50510

20102011201220132014201520162017

Industrial Production Index in Spain (annual average % YoY) -8-6-4-2024

20102011201220132014201520162017

Source: Oxford Economics

F

Global oil prices: Brent, US$/barrel, eop

020406080100120

20122013201420152016201720182019

Logistics Report Spain | 2017 7

Ɯ and healthy economic forecasts for

2018 make Spain a highly attractive

market.

The growth outlook for 2018 is positive,

with estimated annual growth of 2.9%, according to Oxford Economics. This

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(-2bp) due to a number of factors, such as weaker household spending and the political uncertainty in Catalonia, which will put downward pressure on growth prospects should it persist.Thanks to the healthy pace of the

Eurozone economy, as of January 2018

the European Central Bank began to scale back its unconventional monetary policy, reducing net asset purchases from €60.00 per month to €30.000 M. This policy will remain in place until 2018 or until the

ECB Governing Council observes a

ȒƝ

with its target of 2%. Interest rates on Ɯ unchanged at 0%, a situation that is likely to last until 2020.

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