Covid-19, climate change, and the environment - The BMJ

52509_7bmj_n2405_full.pdf ESSAY Covid-19, climatechange, andthe environment:a sustainable, inclusive, andresilient globalrecovery We areat acritical momentin history,facing growingcrises inclimate change,biodiversity, and environmental degradation - as wellas covid-19.But wealso havean enormousopportunity to transform theglobal economyand usherin anera ofgreater wellbeingand prosperity,write Nick

SternandBob Ward

Nicholas Stern,IG Patel,Bob Ward

The covid-19pandemic hasshown howvulnerable

andexposedtheworldistoglobalthreats.Theeffects ofthediseaseandthemeasuresthathavebeentaken to controlit havehad seriousconsequences forlives andlivelihoods.Inadditiontothetragictollofillness anddeath,economieshavebeenhithard,particularly in developingcountries.

Continuingtotacklethediseasemustbethepriority,

particularly byensuring accessto vaccinesand treatments inall countries.Rich countrieshave a criticalresponsibilitynotjusttosafeguardtheirown populations butto supportthe distributionof vaccines todeveloping countries.

Every countrywill remainpotentially exposedand

vulnerable tothe SARS-CoV-2virus aslong asit is able tospread rapidlythrough unvaccinated populations inany partof theworld. Common humanity andself-interest pointin thesame direction.

Governments havetried tolimit andreverse the

economic damagethrough rescueand recovery packages. Therescue effortshave understandably focused onprotecting existingjobs andcompanies, but recoveryoffers thechance toaccelerate the transitiontowardsamoreinclusive,sustainable,and resilientformofeconomicdevelopmentandgrowth.

A reportprepared atthe requestof theBritish prime

minister, BorisJohnson, forthe G7Leaders "Summit inCarbisBay,Cornwall,inJune2021laidoutthecase for aninvestment ledrecovery fromthe pandemic. 1

It pointedout thatan increasein annualinvestment

of $1tn(£0.7tn; €0.9tn), equivalentto 2%of the collective nationaloutput, acrossthe G7countries over thecoming decadeand beyondwould drive stronggrowthoutoftheeconomicdifficultiesarising fromthepandemicandfromtherelativelylowlevels of investment,particularly sincethe financialcrisis in2008-9,whichhavebeenamajorcauseofsluggish growth inmany richcountries overthe pastdecade.

Most ofthis increasein investmentwill bemade by

theprivatesector,butgovernmentsalsoneedtolead byexamplethroughtheirspendingprogrammesboth to kickstartgrowth andplay theirparts incrucial infrastructureinvestment,particularlyinzerocarbon

andclimateresilientenergy,transport,andbuildings.The richcountries shouldalso workto supportinvestment indeveloping countriesto fostersustainable,resilient,andinclusivedevelopmentandgrowth. Mostglobal investmentin thenext twodecadeswillbeinemergingmarketsanddevelopingcountries, andthe natureof thatinvestment willshape thefuture forus allin termsof wellbeingand its sustainability.

Theseinvestmentsinbothdevelopedanddeveloping

countriesshouldaimbothtoreducegreenhousegas emissions andto improveresilience againstthe effectsofclimatechangethatcannotnowbeavoided.

Manyrelevantinvestmentsspurdevelopment,reduce

emissions, andstrengthen resilience.There are examplesacrossallsectors:protectingandrestoring mangroves;restoringdegradedland;expandingand protecting forests;improving publictransport; installing decentralisedsolar energysystems; and constructingandretrofittingbuildingstomakethem more efficientand resilient.All ofthese canboost economic development,climate changemitigation, and adaptation.

Centraltothesechangeswillbeextrafinance,much

ofitconcessional,fromthenationalandmultilateral development banks.This willbe crucialto reducing and managingrisk forboth privateand public investment. Thescale ofthe challengeimplies that its scalemust beexpanded.

The growingconsequences ofclimate changehave

been alltoo visibleacross theworld thisyear with severe heatwaves,floods, wildfires,and tropical cyclones. Anew assessmentof thescience bythe

Intergovernmental Panelon ClimateChange (IPCC),

published inAugust 2021,concluded thatthere is now aclear linkbetween risinggreenhouse gas concentrations inthe atmosphereand increasesin the frequencyand intensityof extremeweather events.

2Itstates:"Climatechangeisalreadyaffecting

everyinhabitedregionacrosstheglobe,withhuman influencecontributingtomanyobservedchangesin weather andclimate extremes. "

Although theIPCC

" s reviewof theeffects ofclimate change onpeople andwildlife isnot dueto be publisheduntilnextyear,lossesareclearlymounting around theworld. Oneof thegreat injusticesof climatechangeisthatthepoorestpeoplearoundthe

1thebmj|BMJ2021;375:n2405 | doi: 10.1136/bmj.n2405FEATURE

GranthamResearchInstituteonClimate

Change andthe Environment,London

School ofEconomics andPolitical

Science, UK

r.e.ward@lse.ac.uk

Cite thisas: BMJ2021;375:n2405

http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2405

Published: 06October 2021

on 24 August 2023 by guest. Protected by copyright.http://www.bmj.com/BMJ: first published as 10.1136/bmj.n2405 on 6 October 2021. Downloaded

from world areoften mostexposed andvulnerable tothe effects,even though theyare leastresponsible forthe drivingcause: therise in concentrations ofcarbon dioxideand othergreenhouse gasesin the atmosphere.

The mostrecent HumanDevelopment Report,

3published bythe

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeinDecember2020,pointed outthatclimatechangehasplayedalargeroleinreducingaverage incomes, particularlyin lowincome countries,increasing the numberofpeopleexperiencinghungerandexpandingthenumber of peopleaffected byclimate andweather disasters. Climate changehas beenmaking itmore difficultto achievemany oftheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),even before thepandemic. Inhis 2021annual progressreport onthe SDGs,

4the UnitedNations secretarygeneral, AntónioGuterres,

said:"The pandemicrelated economicdownturn haspushed between 119and 124million morepeople intoextreme povertyin

2020,furthercompoundingchallengestopovertyeradicationsuch

as conflict,climate change,and naturaldisasters. " Themountingdamagefromclimatechangeisclearlyharmingefforts to overcomepoverty andraise livingstandards, particularlyin developing countries.Global meansurface temperatureis already morethan1°Caboveitspre-industriallevel.Aspecialreportbythe IPCC inOctober 2018provided adetailed reviewof theevidence about therisks ofwarming exceeding1.5°C.

5There isa growing

consensus thatthose riskspose anunacceptable threat. TheIPCCreportconcludedthat,topreventwarmingexceeding1.5°C by theend ofthe century,greenhouse gasemissions wouldneed tobecutsharplyoverthecomingdecades,withnetcarbondioxide emissions reducedto zeroby 2050 - this meansthat anyresidual emissionsfromhumanactivitieswouldneedtobecompensatedby equivalent removalsfrom theatmosphere byplanting more vegetation orthrough otherartificial methodsinvolving carbon capture, use,and storage.Many countrieshave nowpledged to reach netzero annualemissions ofgreenhouse gasesby 2050. Greaterunderstandingoftheurgencyrequiredtocutemissionshas been accompaniedby mountingevidence thatit doesnot mean sacrificing economicdevelopment andgrowth. Annualemissions by theUnited Kingdom,for example,fell by43.8% between1990 and2019,

6whereasitsgrossdomesticproductroseby78%overthe

same period.

7This isa criticallyimportant insight,particularly for

developing countriesthat understandablyview economicgrowth as essentialto improvingthe livesof theircitizens. Theincrease in economic activityis usuallyaccompanied bymore jobs,higher incomes,andlesshunger,aswellaspotentiallyhighertaxrevenues for governmentsto investin publicservices, includinghealth and education. Some peopleargue thatgreenhouse gasemissions canonly be eliminated bykilling economicgrowth. Butthis isanalytically incorrect. Thereis nothinginherent abouteconomic growththat requires emissions.Energy canbe generatedfrom sourcesother than fossilfuels, whichare themain driverof emissions.

Furthermore, commitmentto thenew pathfor economic

development andgrowth isalready generatingrapid innovation and costreduction formost countries.Round-the-clock renewable electricityisnowcheaperthanfossilfuelelectricityinmanyplaces, for example.Electric vehiclesare moreefficient thanthose driven byinternalcombustionengines.Resourceefficiency(includingthe

circular economy)improves productivity.And progressis rapid.As countriesemerge fromthe pandemic,investments inthe rapidtransitionawayfromfossilfuelstowardscleanersourcesofenergywillhavemultipleeconomicbenefits.Itwill,forexample,drasticallyreduce thenumber ofdeaths fromair pollution,which killsmore than sevenmillion peopleworldwide everyyear, accordingto theWorldHealthOrganization,

8andknocksseveralpercentagepoints

offeconomicoutput,

9particularlyincountrieslikeChinaandIndia.

Investmentsinsustainableinfrastructure,suchasrenewableenergy and electrictrains, canimprove theeconomic competitivenessof countries andtransform citiesinto moreattractive placeswhere peoplecanlive,move,andbreathemoreeasily.Infrastructurethat isnotsustainablehastheoppositeeffect - creatingmorepollution, waste, andcongestion. An investmentled recoverythat acceleratesthe transformationto sustainable, inclusive,and resilienteconomic developmentand growth willnot onlyavoid theworst potentialconsequences of climatechange,biodiversityloss,andenvironmentaldegradation, but willalso createmeaningful jobopportunities andimprove the livesofpeoplearoundtheworld.Anewformofclean,sustainable, efficientandinclusivedevelopmentandgrowthisnowinourhands. It willinvolve stronginvestment andsome dislocation.It is important thatthe transitionis, andis seento be,just. Allthis will require strongcommitment andleadership. Butif offersus amuch better future.Biographies Nick Sternis across benchmember ofthe UKHouse ofLords. Hehas beenpresidentoftheBritishAcademy,theRoyalEconomicSociety,and theEuropeanEconomicAssociation.HewasheadoftheUKGovernment Economic Servicefrom 2003to 2007and headof theStern Reviewon the Economicsof ClimateChange , publishedin 2006.He waschief economist ofthe EuropeanBank forReconstruction andDevelopment between 1994and 1999,and chiefeconomist andsenior vicepresident at theWorld Bankbetween 2000and 2003. Robert Wardis deputychair ofthe LondonClimate ChangePartnership and afellow ofthe GeologicalSociety, theRoyal GeographicalSociety, and theEnergy Institute.He waspreviously directorof publicpolicy at RiskManagementSolutionsbetween2006and2008,andseniormanager for policycommunication atthe RoyalSociety between1999 and2006.

He hasalso workedas afreelance sciencejournalist

Commissioned, notexternally peerreviewed.

Competinginterests:WehavereadandunderstoodBMJpolicyondeclarationofinterestsanddeclare the following:NS oversawthe preparationof theG7 reportby theGrantham ResearchInstitute on Climate Changeand theEnvironment, whichhe haschaired sinceits foundationin 2008,and RW, whohasbeenpolicyandcommunicationsdirectorattheinstitutesinceitsfoundation,wasoneofthe writing team. 1 Stern N.G7 leadershipfor sustainable,resilient, andinclusive economicrecovery andgrowth: AnindependentreportrequestedbytheUKPrimeMinisterfortheG7.London:GranthamResearch Institute onClimate Changeand theEnvironment. June2021. https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/g7-leadership-for-su stainable-resilient-and- inclusive-economic-recovery-and-growth/ . 2 Intergovernmental Panelon ClimateChange. Climatechange 2021:the physicalscience basis.

2021.https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport

3 United NationsDevelopment Programme.Human developmentreport 2020.2020. http://hdr.undp.org/en/2020-report 4 UnitedNationsSecretary-General.ProgresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoals:report of thesecretary-general. 30April 2021.https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/files/report/2021/secretary- general-sdg-report-2021--EN.pdf 5 Intergovernmental Panelon ClimateChange. Globalwarming of1.5°C: 2018. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ 6 Department forBusiness, Energy,and IndustrialStrategy. 2019UK greenhousegas emissions, final figures.2021. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/up- loads/attachment_data/file/957887/2019_Final_greenhouse_gas_emissions_st atistical_re- lease.pdf the bmj | BMJ 2021;375:n2405 | doi: 10.1136/bmj.n24052FEATURE

on 24 August 2023 by guest. Protected by copyright.http://www.bmj.com/BMJ: first published as 10.1136/bmj.n2405 on 6 October 2021. Downloaded

from 7 Office forNational Statistics.Gross domesticproduct: chainedvolume measures:seasonally adjusted£m.2021.https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ab- mi/pn2 8 World HealthOrganization. Airpollution. 2021.https://www.who.int/health-topics/air-pollu- tion#tab=tab_1 9 World Bank,Institute forHealth Metricsand Evaluation.The costof airpollution: strengthening the economiccase foraction. 2016.https://documents1.worldbank.org/curat- ed/en/781521473177013155/pdf/108141-REVISED-Cost-of-PollutionWebCORRECTE

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