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Statistician: Geraint Turner ~ 0300 025 5050 ~ stats.info.desk@gov.wales This report is also available in Welsh

Enquiries from the press: 0300 025 8099 Public enquiries : 0300 025 5050 Twitter: @statisticswales

Summary statistics for South East Wales region: 2020 20 May 2020

SFR 47/2020

These reports have been updated to support the continuing development of the National Development Framework following consultation on the draft NDF in autumn 2019. The Mid and South West Wales region has been split into separate regions for Mid Wales and South West Wales to provide more detailed analysis on the key issues and trends in these areas. The South East Wales region comprises the local authorities of Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Torfaen, and Vale of Glamorgan. The aim of this release is to give a statistical breakdown of the region and to highlight differences that may exist across the region for the nine topics in question.

Key Points

x South East Wales is the only Welsh region where population change due to natural change (population attributable to the difference in births and deaths) has been strictly positive since the 1991-92 period, although the level of natural change has been decreasing in recent years. x In 2018, 725,500 people worked in the region, representing half of all employment across Wales. x Overall, nitrogen dioxide levels were higher in South East Wales local authorities than in local authorities across the other regions, but these levels have been decreasing over time.

About this release

This release is one of five

statistical outputs summarising statistics on nine key topics for Wales and four Welsh regions (North Wales, Mid Wales,

South West Wales and

South East Wales).

Together these releases

have been prepared to inform regional planning, supporting the National

Infrastructure

Commission for Wales,

the National

Development Framework

and the Economic Action Plan.

In this release

Population 2

Health 9

Employment 11

Transport 16

Environment 19

Prosperity 23

Digital Infrastructure 26

Housing 30

Culture & Heritage 32

Quality Information 33

2

Population

Figure 1: Population in South East Wales, by local authority, 2018 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics In 2018, South East Wales was home to 1.53 million residents, of which around 24 per cent lived in

Cardiff.

This was, by some way, the largest local authority in the region and in Wales in terms of population, with an estimated 364,000 residents. The authority with the smallest population in this region was Merthyr Tydfil with a population of around 60,000. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 3 Figure 2: Population density (persons per square kilometre) in South East Wales, by local authority, 2018 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics; Standard area measurements, Office for National Statistics South East Wales had a population density of 546 persons per square kilometre in 2018, meaning it was the most densely populated of the Welsh regions. Within the region, the most densely populated authority was Cardiff, with 2,585 persons per square kilometre. The most sparsely populated local authority was Monmouthshire, with a population density of 111 persons per square kilometre. Between 2008 and 2018, population density grew by

5.1 per cent in South East Wales. This was the highest rate of the four regions. The authority with

the greatest population density growth rate in the region and in Wales over this period was Cardiff, at 9.5 per cent. Blaenau Gwent saw the only fall, with population density decreasing by 0.2 per cent from 2008 to 2018. Welsh Government analysis of 2011 Census data (unpublished) shows that South East Wales'

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residents living in settlements with 25,000 or more residents. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 4 Figure 3: Population distribution in South East Wales by age and gender, 2018 Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics The relatively uniform shape of the population pyramid for the South East Wales region shows that it has a fairly even distribution of ages, the most even distribution of ages among the four Welsh regions in 2018. This can be partly attributed to the relatively high number of university students living in the area, and especially in Cardiff. Between 1998 and 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased from

16.0 per cent to 18.5 per cent, while the proportion of the population aged 15 and under has fallen

from 21.6 per cent to 18.6 per cent. South East Wales is the only Welsh region with a higher proportion of the population aged 15 and under than aged 65 and over. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020.

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Aged 0

Aged 5

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Aged 15

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Aged 25

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Aged 45

Aged 50

Aged 55

Aged 60

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Aged 90 and over

Population

Male

Female

5 Figure 4: Percentage population change in South East Wales, by local authority,

1998-2018

Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics The population of the region grew by 9.6 per cent between 1998 and 2018. However, population The population decreased in 2 of the 10 local authorities in the region over the first half of this period, but only Blaenau Gwent experienced negative population growth over the 2008-2018 period. Cardiff experienced the highest population growth rate between 1998 and 2018 (18.0 per cent). Newport has seen the greatest change in population growth between the 1998-2008 and 2008-

2018 periods, going from a growth rate of 3.9 per cent to 7.4 per cent. The mean population growth

higher than the median (5,084 people) due to the high proportion of growth happening in Cardiff. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. 9.6 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Percentage

South East Wales

6 Figure 5: Components of population change in South East Wales over time Source: Mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics Looking at data showing components of population change across South East Wales, we see a

different picture to that seen across Wales as a whole, and across the other three regions. It is the

only region in which natural change (population attributable to the difference in births and deaths) has been strictly positive since the 1991-92 period, although the level of natural change has been decreasing in recent years. The data also shows that inward migration has been greater than outward migration since the

2001-02 period. Breaking the data down to local authority level shows that Vale of Glamorgan had

the largest net change in population due to migration and other changes during the 2017-18 period, while Newport had the largest overall population change. Population change due to net migration and other changes was positive in all authorities within the region, meaning that in all authorities, there are more people moving in than moving out. Cardiff was by far the local authority with the highest level of natural change in 2017-18, both in the region and in Wales, while 4 of the

10 authorities in the region experienced negative natural change, meaning deaths were higher

than births. The highest level of negative natural change in the region was in Monmouthshire. Note: These reports were produced ahead of the publication of provisional 2019 mid-year estimates on 6 May 2020. -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000

1991 to 19921992 to 19931993 to 19941994 to 19951995 to 19961996 to 19971997 to 19981998 to 19991999 to 20002000 to 20012001 to 20022002 to 20032003 to 20042004 to 20052005 to 20062006 to 20072007 to 20082008 to 20092009 to 20102010 to 20112011 to 20122012 to 20132013 to 20142014 to 20152015 to 20162016 to 20172017 to 2018

Change (count)

Natural change during period

Net migration and other

changes during period 7 Figure 6: Stated Welsh-speaking ability of persons aged three and over in South

East Wales, by local authority, 2011

Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics According to census data, there were 150,792 Welsh-speakers aged three and over in the region in 2011. There were more Welsh-speakers in Cardiff than in any other local authority in the region, while Merthyr Tydfil had the lowest count of Welsh speakers. As a proportion of the persons aged three and over however, Rhondda Cynon Taf was the local authority with the highest rate of Welsh speakers (12.3 per cent), while Blaenau Gwent had the lowest (7.8 per cent). The census is the key source of information about the number of people who can speak Welsh. The National Survey for Wales (NSW) and the Annual Population Survey (APS) also collect collects information for those aged 16 or over while the APS collects information for those aged three and over like the census). Estimates of Welsh language ability from household surveys are historically higher than those produced by the census and it is not known exactly why this is the estimates. More information can be found in a blog post by the Chief Statistician discussing Welsh language data. Data from the Annual Population Survey shows that an estimated 20.2 per cent of South East Wales residents aged three and over said they could speak Welsh in the year ending September

2019. This was the lowest proportion of the four regions, yet this represented an increase of

around 2.7 percentage points on data for the year ending September 2009, and corresponds to the greatest count of people speaking Welsh due to the relatively high population in the region. Cardiff saw the largest growth in Welsh speakers over the September 2009 to September 2019 period in terms of the count, while Torfaen had a small reduction in the same period. Regional percentages have been calculated from published rounded figures. 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Number

Not able to speak Welsh

Able to speak Welsh

8 Figure 7: Student enrolments to Higher Education Institutions in South East Wales,

2018-19

Source: Higher education student record, Higher Education Statistics Agency In 2018-19, there were just over 66,195 enrolments on Higher Education (HE) courses in South East Wales, representing half of all enrolments in Wales. Cardiff University saw the highest number of HE enrolments in the region and in Wales, representing 25.1 per cent of total

33,190

22,330

10,675

Cardiff University

University South Wales

Cardiff Metropolitan

University

9

Health

Life expectancy is a measure of how long, on average, people can expect to live using estimates of the population and the number of deaths. Healthy life expectancy estimates the number of years spent in very good or good general health. ONS data shows that for 2016-18 in South East Wales, male life expectancy, female life expectancy, and male healthy life expectancy were highest in Monmouthshire and lowest in Blaenau Gwent. Female healthy life expectancy was highest in Monmouthshire and lowest in Caerphilly. South East Wales had some of both the highest and lowest figures for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy across Wales, and the difference between local authorities was the largest of the Welsh regions, with a gap of 4-5 years in life expectancy and 10-11 years in healthy life expectancy. Figure 8: Adults aged 16 and over showing 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle behaviours, by local authority, 2017-18 and 2018-19* (age standardised) * The 2017-18 and 2018-19 periods have been combined for data quality purposes

Source: National Survey for Wales

The 5 healthy lifestyle behaviours are: not smoking, average weekly alcohol consumption 14 units or lower, eating at least 5 portions fruit & veg the previous day, having a healthy body mass index, and being physically active at least 150 minutes the previous week. Across South East Wales in 2017-18 and 2018-19 combined, 10 per cent of adults reported fewer than 2 of the 5 healthy lifestyle behaviours. This ranged from 6 per cent in Monmouthshire to 15 per cent in Merthyr Tydfil. South East Wales had some of both the highest and lowest rates in

Wales.

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10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Percentage

South East Wales

10 Figure 9: Percentage of adults aged 16 and over reporting they are in good or very good general health, by local authority, 2017-18 and 2018-19* (age standardised) * The 2017-18 and 2018-19 periods have been combined for data quality purposes

Source: National Survey for Wales

Across South East Wales in 2017-18 and 2018-19 combined, 70 per cent of adults reported being in good or very good general health. This ranged from 64 per cent in Blaenau Gwent to 76 per cent in Monmouthshire. South East Wales had some of both the highest and lowest rates in Wales. For local authority data taken from the National Survey for Wales (0 or 1 healthy lifestyle behaviours and self-reported good health), not all differences between local authorities are statistically significant.

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