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CENSUS OF INDIA 2011

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

FOR

INDIA AND STATES

2011 ² 2036

REPORT OF THE TECHNICAL GROUP

ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS

November, 2019

NATIONAL COMMISSION ON POPULATION

MINISTRY OF HEALTH & FAMILY WELFARE

NIRMAN BHAWAN, NEW DELHI ² 110011

CONTENTS

Pages

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 1

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 2

CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 14

CHAPTER 2 : POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR INDIA 16

APPENDIX 1 : INPUT TABLES

22
TABLE ² 1 : Summary of base year population data, fertility and mortality indices and assumptions: 2011- India and States 24
TABLE ² 2 : Percentage distribution of 2011 Census smoothed population by age and sex for India and States 25
TABLE ² 3 : Projected levels of Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for India and States (excluding Goa): 2011-2035 36
TABLE ² 4 : Projected levels of expectation of life at birth for India and States (excluding Goa): 2011-2035 (Males) 37
TABLE ² 5 : Projected levels of expectation of life at birth for India and States (excluding Goa): 2011-2035 (Females) 38
TABLE ² 6 : Projected values of sex ratio at birth, India and States (excluding Goa):

2011-2035

39
TABLE ² 7 : Projected values of net-migration rate (per 100), India and States (excluding Goa): 2011-2035 40

APPENDIX 2 : OUTPUT TABLES 41

I-SUMMARY TABLES

TABLE ² 8 : Projected total population by sex as on 1st March, 2011-2036: India, States and Union territories 43
TABLE ² 9 : Projected urban population by sex as on 1st March, 2011-2036: India,

States and Union territories

56
TABLE ² 10 : Proportion (percent) of projected urban population to total population by sex as on 1st March, 2011-2036: India, States and Union territories 70
TABLE ² 11 : Projected total population by sex as on 1st July, 2011-2036: India, States and Union territories 83
TABLE ² 12 : Projected urban population by sex as on 1st July, 2011-2036: India, States and Union Territories 96
TABLE ² 13 : Proportion (percent) of projected urban population to total population by sex as on 1st July, 2011-2036: India, States and Union territories 109
TABLE ² 14 : Projected total population by sex as on 1st October, 2011-2036: India,

States and Union territories

122
TABLE ² 15 : Projected urban population by sex as on 1st October, 2011-2036: India,

States and Union territories

135
TABLE ² 16 : Proportion (percent) of projected urban population to total population by sex as on 1st October, 2011-2036: India, States and Union territories 148

II - DETAILED TABLES

Pages TABLES 17 to 20 India, States (except Goa) and Combined North-East States (Excluding

Assam)

INDIA 160

JAMMU & KASHMIR (UT) 164

HIMACHAL PRADESH 168

PUNJAB 172

UTTARAKHAND 176

HARYANA 180

NCT OF DELHI 184

RAJASTHAN 188

UTTAR PRADESH 192

BIHAR 196

ASSAM 200

WEST BENGAL 204

JHARKHAND 208

ODISHA 212

CHHATTISGARH 216

MADHYA PRADESH 220

GUJARAT 224

MAHARASHTRA 228

ANDHRA PRADESH 232

KARNATAKA 236

KERALA 240

TAMIL NADU

TELANGANA

244
248

NORTH-EAST STATES (EXCLUDING ASSAM) 252

III - CONSOLIDATED TABLES

257
TABLE ² 21 : Projected total population by sex as on 1st March: India, States and Union territories - 2011-2036 259 Appendix 3 : Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, National Commission on Population Order No.11011/05/2013-NCP dated 1st July, 2014 261
1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Following Officers have made significant contributions towards the preparation of the Report on Population Projections for India and States, 2011-36 2

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned

by certain assumptions using past data. Assumptions used and their holding true in future, is a critical

condition in this exercise. Predicting the future course of human fertility and mortality is not easy, as medical

and health interventions, production of food and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural

setting, politico-economic conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it

difficult to predict population with certainty. Therefore, caution must be exercised while using the projected

numbers in the context of various assumptions prevailing. Apart from dynamic growth arising out of physical

problems, it may also be added that despite the best efforts in Census for complete and correct enumeration,

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and mortality from Sample Registration System, there may be some under or over-enumeration, in spite of

best efforts to control non-sampling errors. The Component Method is the universally accepted method of making population projections because

growth of population is determined by fertility, mortality and migration rates. Twenty-one States and one UT

have been considered and applied the Component method. They are Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar,

Chhattisgarh, NCT of Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir (UT), Jharkhand,

Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana,

Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The projection of the seven north-eastern states (excluding

Assam) has also been carried out as a whole using the Component Method. Based on the residual of the projected population of Jammu & Kashmir (State) and Jammu & Kashmir (UT), for which Component method

has applied, projection of the Ladakh UT have been made. For the remaining state- Goa and UTs,

Mathematical Method has been applied. The data used are 2011 Census and Sample Registration System (SRS).

SRS provides time series data of fertility and mortality, which has been used for predicting their future levels.

The figures for the year 2011 are the actual Census figures. The salient features of the population projections at

the national level are as under: The population of India is expected to increase from 121.1 crores to 151.8 crores during the period

2011-2036 - an increase of 25 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 1.0 percent annually. As a

consequence, the density of population will increase from 368 to 462 persons per square kilometer.

‡ The crude birth rate will decline from 19.6 during 2011-15 to 13.0 during 2031-35 because of falling

level of total fertility. In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to increase marginally due to

changing age structure of the population with the rising median age as a result of continuing decline

in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at birth. It will increase from 6.9 during 2011-15 to 7.3

during 2031-35.

‡ The infant mortality rate of the country, which is reported to be 46 in 2010 is expected to go down to

30 by the end of the period 2031-35.

‡ Between 2011 and 2036, because of the declining fertility, the proportion of population aged under

15 years is projected to decline from 30.8 to 19.8 percent; the proportion of the middle age-group (15-

59 years) and the older ages (60 years and above) are set to increase considerably. With the declining

fertility, along-with the increases in life expectancy, the number of older persons in the population is

expected to increase by more than double from 10 crores in 2011 to 23 crores in 2036 - an increase in

their share to the total population from 8.4 to 15.0 percent. The proportion of population in the

working age-group 15-59 years is expected to rise from 60.7 percent in 2011 to 65.1 percent in 2036.

‡ Another important consequence of the declining fertility will be that, at the national level, the

population in the school-going age of 5-14 years is expected to decline from 25.4 crores in 2011 to 20.7

crores in 2036. The share of the population aged 5-14 years to total population of all ages is expected to

decrease by 7.3 percent from 20.9 percent in 2011 to 13.6 percent in 2036. 3

‡ The youth population in the age- group 15-24 years is expected to increase from 23.3 crores in 2011

to 25.2 crores in 2021 and then continue to decrease to 22.7 crores in 2036. Its proportion to total population is expected to fall from 19.3 percent in 2011 to 14.9 percent in 2036.

‡ From the above, it is evident that, 50.1 percent of the population in the country, was aged 24 years

and below in 2011, constituting 30.8 percent and 19.3 percent in the ages 0-14 years and 15-24 years

respectively. The combined proportion of these two age-groups is expected to fall from 50.1 percent in

2011 to 34.7 percent in 2036 (19.8 percent in the ages 0-14 years and 14.9 percent in the ages 15-24

years). The average age of Indians is expected to be of 34.7 years in 2036 as compared to 24.9 years in

2011.

‡ Out of the total population increase of 30.7 crores between 2011 and 2036, the share of the workers in

the age-group 15-59 years in this total increase is 82.5 percent. This has implication in the availability

of labour in future.

‡ The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000 males) is expected to increase (i.e. become

more feminine) from 943 in 2011 to 957 during 2036.

‡ The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is expected to decline from 2.34 during 2011-2015 to 1.72 during 2031-

35. The assumption is that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) would follow the recent pace of decline.

‡ The urban population in the country, which is 31.8 percent in 2011, is expected to increase to 38.6

percent by 2036. The urban growth would account for over three-fourth (73 percent) of total

population increase by 2036. Out of the total population increase of 30.7 crores during 2011-2036 in the

country, the share of increase in urban population is expected to be 22.4 crores. Changes in the age structure of the projected population at the national level between 2011 and 2036

have been depicted by graph (Figure- 1) and population pyramids (Figure- 2 and 3), which are enclosed at the

explained above. It is observed from the said population pyramids that in 2011, older cohorts would be

smaller than younger cohorts. Subsequently, with the decline in fertility, the base of the pyramid in 2036

would narrow down, while the middle would be broadened. Considerable variation in the demographic

growth amongst the States has been estimated. The salient features of the projections at the state level are as

under:

‡ The State which is expected to have least growth during 2011-2036 is Himachal Pradesh (6 percent),

followed by Tamil Nadu (8 percent). In contrast, NCT of Delhi will have the highest projected growth

of 98 percent during the period. States, which will have projected growths in the range of 10-20

percent are, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Manipur, Karnataka, Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana and West Bengal. The population in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Uttar Pradesh, Mizoram, Puducherry, Bihar, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, NCT of Delhi, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu is projected to increase by more than 30 percent.

‡ Of the projected increase in population of 31 crores in India during 2011-36, 17 crores are likely to

occur in the five States of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. Thus,

QHMUO\ D0 SHUŃHQP RI HQGLM·V GHPRJUMSOLŃ growth during this period of twenty-five years is projected

to take place in these five states. Nineteen percent of the total population increase in India of 30.7

crores during 2011-36 is anticipated to occur in Uttar Pradesh alone. The population in these five states

together is expected to grow at 1.0 percent per annum during 2011-36. In contrast, the contribution of

the five southern states, namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, to

the total increase in population size of the country during 2011-2036 is expected to be 2.9 crores ² nine

percent of total demographic growth of the country. The population in these five states together is expected to grow at 0.4 percent per annum during 2011-36. Proportions of some of the other states to

the total increase in population size during 2011-36 are Rajasthan (7.2 percent), Gujarat (6.8 percent),

Haryana (3.0 percent) and NCT of Delhi (3.2 percent). The contribution of the remaining states and

union territories to the total increase in population size during 2011-2036 is 17 percent. A pie chart

4 (Figure- 4) showing the contribution of each state for the total projected population growth during

‡ Continuing decline in fertility and increase in the expectation of life at birth is expected to make a

difference to the proportion of older population (60 years and above) between states. The State of

Kerala, where lower fertility and mortality rates have been achieved earlier than the other states, the

proportion of older persons aged 60 years and above is expected to increase from 13 percent in 2011 to

23 percent in 2036. Thus, almost every fifth individual in Kerala is expected to be a senior citizen by

2036. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh is expected to have an increase of the proportion of old age population

from 7 percent in 2011 to 12 percent in 2036, implying that the population of Uttar Pradesh will be expected to be relatively younger compared to that of Kerala. The median age of population in Kerala

is expected to go up from 31.9 years in 2011 to 39.6 years in 2036. In contrast, the median age in Uttar

Pradesh is expected to go up from 21.5 years to 31.7 years. Two projected population pyramids

(Figure- 5 and 6), which bring out the expected differences in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh respectively age of population at the national level and state level during 2011-2036 is depicted in Figure- 7.

‡ Because of declining fertility level in all the states, the crude birth rates (CBR) will also be declining.

By 2031-35, except Bihar, no state is expected to have a crude birth rate of more than 20. The highest

CBR of 19.6 per thousand is expected to be in Bihar followed by Jharkhand (15.6) and Madhya Pradesh (15.4) during 2031-35. Assam, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir (UT), Rajasthan, Odisha, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat are expected to have CBRs in the range of 12.1-15.3, close to the

projected national level of 13.0. In most of the other states, the CBRs will be in the range 9.9-12.1. Three

states, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh are expected to have the lowest CBR of 9.9 followed by Himachal Pradesh (10.0) during 2031-35. In contrast to the CBRs, the situation is expected to be

different in case of crude death rates (CDR). Because of increase in the expected proportion of ageing,

the crude death rates are likely to increase in 19 major states, except Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh,

and Chhattisgarh during 2031-35 (Figure- 8 and 9).

‡ The infant mortality rate (IMR) is expected to decline in all the states during 2011-35. The IMR,

which was highest in Madhya Pradesh at 58 followed by 57 in Uttar Pradesh in 2011-15 is expected to come down to 37 in Madhya Pradesh, followed by Uttar Pradesh (38) in 2031-35. Other states, where

IMRs are expected to be in the range of 30-40 during 2031-35 are Rajasthan, Assam, Odisha,

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The lowest IMR is expected to be in Kerala at 9 in

2031-35. It will be followed by Tamil Nadu with IMR declining from 22 in 2011-15 to 16 during 2031-35

(Figure- 10)

‡ In so far as the projected sex ratio is concerned, it is observed that the population in 2036 is expected

to be more feminine compared to the population as of 2011. It is observed that in 2036 sex ratio in

eighteen states, except Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat will increase as compared to 2011.

Lowest sex ratio of 899 is expected to be in NCT of Delhi in 2036, followed by 900 and 908 in Gujarat

and Haryana respectively (Figure- 11).

‡ State-wise proportion of population expected to live in urban areas by 2036 is depicted in Figure- 12.

It is observed that by 2036, 100 percent population of NCT of Delhi, Chandigarh and Lakshadweep

would be living in urban areas, which is highest among the states, included for projecting the

population by component method. In contrast, 10.5 percent of the population of Himachal Pradesh

would be expected to live in urban areas by the same year (2036), which is lowest among all the states.

______ x ______ x ______ 5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0

201120162021202620312036

Percentage

Year Figure 1-Percentage of population by broad age-groups, India 2011- 2036

0-1415-5960+5-1415-24

13121110987654321012345678910111213

0-4 5-10 10-15 15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+

Figure 2-Actual Population pyramid: India -2011

MaleFemale

Percentage to total population

6

111098765432101234567891011

0-4 5-10 10-15 15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Figure 3-Projected Population pyramid: India -2036

MaleFemale

Percentage to total population

BIHAR, 14.5

UTTAR PRADESH, 19.2

MADHYA

PRADESH,

8.2

RAJASTHAN, 7.2MAHARASHTRA, 7.9

GUJARAT

, 6.8

WEST BENGAL, 3.8

NCT OF DELHI, 3.2

ANDHRA PRADESH, 1.5

TELANGANA, 1.5

KARNATAKA, 3.5

JHARKHAND, 4.0

ASSAM, 2.7

ORISSA, 1.0

HARYANA, 3.0

TAMIL NADU, 1.9

CHHATTISGARH, 2.8

UTTARAKHAND, 0.9

PUNJAB, 1.6KERALA, 1.2

Other States/Uts, 3.8

Figure 4-Percenatage Share of States in total projected population increase during 2011-36 7

13121110987654321012345678910111213

0-4 5-10 10-15 15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Figure 5-Projected Population pyramid: Kerala -2036

MaleFemale

Percentage to total population

13121110987654321012345678910111213

0-4 5-10 10-15 15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Figure 6-Projected Population pyramid: Uttar Pradesh-2036

MaleFemale

Percentage to total population

8 19.9 21.5
22.1
21.5
23.3
22.4
24.2
23.8
24.9
24.9
26.0
26.2
23.2
26.6
27.4
27.6
26.7
27.0
27.7
28.2
31.9
28.2
29.9
28.1
30.7
31.4
31.7
31.7
32.1
32.5
33.6
34.5
34.7
34.8
35.1
36.2
37.0
37.8
38.5
38.6
38.8
38.9
39.5
39.6
39.6
40.5

BIHAR (10)

UTTARAKHAND (05)

JHARKHAND (20)

UTTAR PRADESH (09)

MADHYA PRADESH (23)

RAJASTHAN (08)

CHHATTISGARH (22)

ASSAM (18)

HARYANA (06)

India

GUJARAT (24)

NCT OF DELHI (07)

JAMMU & KASHMIR UT (01)

ODISHA (21)

KARNATAKA (29)

ANDHRA PRADESH (28)

TELANGANA (36)

WEST BENGAL (19)

PUNJAB (03)

HIMACHAL PRADESH (02)

KERALA (32)

MAHARASHTRA (27)

TAMIL NADU (33)

Figure 7-Median age of projected population during 2011-

2036, India and selected states

20362011

9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.4 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.7 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.6 19.6 15.2 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.7 15.2 15.2 16.6 15.4 14.5 17.0 15.1 19.2 19.1 19.6 18.1 20.3
25.8
22.5
24.3
24.9
22.1
27.5

ANDHRA PRADESH (28)

TAMIL NADU (33)

PUNJAB (03)

HIMACHAL PRADESH (02)

TELANGANA (36)

WEST BENGAL (19)

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