[PDF] ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 8 / 2016

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&RXQFLOPHHWLQJRI'HFHPEHU Global activity has improved in the second half of this year and is expected to continue strengthening, although remaining below its pre-crisis pace. Global inflation is still dampened by the effects of past oil price declines and the abundant global spare capacity is expected to weigh on underlying inflation over the medium term. *OREDOSULFHGHYHORSPHQWV Since the Governing Council monetary policy meeting in September, euro area sovereign yields have risen and the EONIA forward curve has steepened. The increase in nominal yields has taken place mainly on account of higher inflation expectation s. Corporate bond spreads increased slightly, but remained lower than in early March 2016, when the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) was announced. Broad equity prices rose marginally in the euro area, while bank equity prices outperformed the broad index. The ongoing economic expansion continues to be moderate, but is firming. The pass-through of the ECB's monetary policy measures to the real economy is supporting domestic demand and is facilitating deleveraging. Improvements in corporate profitability and very favourable credit conditions continue to promote a recovery in investment. Sustained employment gains, which are also benefiting from past structural reforms, and still relatively low oil prices should provide additional support for households' real disposable income and private consumption. The December 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections foresee euro area real GDP growing by 1.7% in 2016 and 2017 and by 1.6% in 2018 and 2019. The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation in November

2016 was 0.6%, up from the recent low of -0.2% in April. Meanwhile, underlying price

dynamics continue to show no clear signs of an upward trend. Looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to pick up further at the turn of the year to above 1% owing, to a large extent, to base effects in the annual rate of change in energy prices. Supported by the ECB's monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should increase further in 2017, 2018 and 2019. This pattern is also reflected in the December 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 0.2% in 2016, 1.3% in

2017, 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019

Broad money growth remained stable in the third quarter of 2016 but declined somewhat in October. At the same time, loan growth to the private sector increased in October. Low interest rates and the effects of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy measures continue to support money and credit dynamics. The annual flow of total external financing to non financial corporations (NFCs) is estimated to have continued to strengthen in the third quarter of 2016

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Over the period 2016-19, the general government budget deficit and debt ratios for the euro area are both projected to remain on a downward path. The euro area fiscal stance is expected to be expansionary in 2016 and to turn broadly neutral in 2017 19. D ebt reduction will mainlybe supported by a favourable interest rate growth differential in the light of better cyclical conditions and low interest rates. Some countries have fiscal space, which could be used to support growth. In the case of high -debt countries, additional consolidation efforts in line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pa ct (SGP) are needed to set their public debt ratios firmly on a downward path.

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Fluctuations in uncertainty can play an important role in shaping the economic conjuncture and outlook. This article discusses the various methods proposed in the literature to measure uncertainty and shows how these measures have evolved in the euro area. It describes the transmission channels of fluctuations in uncertainty to the economy and provides some model-based evidence for the impact of uncertainty on euro area activity. The results suggest that uncertainty in the euro area rose substantially during the Great Recession and during the sovereign debt crisis, and that high uncertainty could significantly dampen activity in the euro area, and notably investment.

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At the Pittsburgh summit in 2009, G20 leaders pledged to reform over-the-counter derivatives markets to improve their transparency, prevent market abuse and reduce systemic risks. Focusing on Europe, this article recalls the objectives of the Pittsburgh reforms, reviews the progress made since their adoption, in particular with regard to trade reporting and central clearing, and identifies remaining gaps and issues for policymakers. The latter relate mainly to (i) the resilience, recovery and resolution of central counterparties, given their growing systemic importance as a result of the reforms; (ii) the need to strengthen the stability of derivatives markets; and (iii) the still insufficient data quality and transparency of OTC derivative transactions, despite the considerable progress already made.

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Statistics

S 1ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 8 / 2016 - Statistics

Contents

1 External environmentS 2

2 Financial developmentsS 3

3 Economic activityS 8

4 Prices and costsS 14

5 Money and creditS 18

6 Fiscal developmentsS 23

Further information

ECB statistics can be accessed from the Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW ): http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/ Data from the statistics section of the Economic Bulletin are available from the SDW: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004813

A comprehensive Statistics Bulletin can be found in the SDW: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004045

Methodological definitions can be found in the General Notes to the Stat istics Bulletin: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000023 Details on calculations can be found in the Technical Notes to the Stati stics Bulletin: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=10000022 Explanations of terms and abbreviations can be found in the ECB's statis tics glossary: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/glossary/html/glossa.en.html

Conventions used in the tables

- data do not exist/data are not applicable . data are not yet available ... nil or negligible (p) provisional s.a. seasonally adjusted n.s.a. non-seasonally adjusted

1 External environment

S 2ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 8 / 2016 - Statistics

1.1 Main trading partners, GDP and CPI

GDP 1) CPI (period-on-period percentage changes) (annual percentage changes) G20quotesdbs_dbs14.pdfusesText_20

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