[PDF] Monthly Bulletin April 2014 1 abr. 2014 Publications produced

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In 2014 all ECB publications feature a

motif taken from the €20 banknote.

© European Central Bank, 2014

Address

Kaiserstrasse 29

60311 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

Postal address

Postfach 16 03 19

60066 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

Telephone

+49 69 1344 0

Website

http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000
This Bulletin was produced under the responsibility of the Executive Board of the ECB. Translations are prepared and published by the national central banks. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The cut-off date for the statistics included in this issue was 2 April 2014.

ISSN 1561-0136 (print)

ISSN 1725-2822 (online)

EU catalogue number QB-AG-14-004-EN-C (print)

EU catalogue number QB-AG-14-004-EN-N (online)

EDITORI

A L 5 E

CONOMIC

A

ND MONET

A

RY DEVELOPMENTS

7 1

The external environment of the euro area 7

Box 1 Is the unemployment rate a sound gauge of labour market developments in the United States? 10 2

Monetary and financial developments 17

Box 2 Recent developments in debt securities issued by non-financial corporati ons in the euro area 22
Box 3 Eurosystem Credit Assessment Framework for monetary policy operations 28 3

Prices and costs 38

Box 4 Potential measurement issues in consumer price indices 40 4

Output, demand and the labour market 46

Box 5

Slack in the euro area economy 47

Box 6 Factors behind the fall and recovery in business investment 54 Box 7 Euro area sectoral value added growth and the Purchasing Managers" Index 57 A

RTICLE

S

The ECB"s forward guidance

65
Fiscal multipliers and the timing of consolidation 75
EURO A RE A ST A

TISTICS S1

A NNE X ES Chronology of monetary policy measures of the Eurosystem I Publications produced by the European Central Bank V

Glossary

VII C

ONTENTS

A

BBREVI

A TIONS

COUNTRIES LU Luxembourg

BE

Belgium HU Hungary

BG

Bulgaria MT Malta

CZ

Czech Republic NL Netherlands

DK

Denmark AT Austria

DE

Germany

PL Poland

EE

Estonia

PT Portugal

IE

Ireland RO Romania

GR

Greece

SI Slovenia

ES

Spain SK Slovakia

FR

France

FI Finland

HR

Croatia

SE Sweden

IT

Italy UK United Kingdom

CY

Cyprus

JP Japan

LV

Latvia US United States

LT

Lithuania

OTHERS

BIS

Bank for International Settlements

b.o.p. balance of payments BPM5

IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition)

CD certificate of deposit c.i.f. cost, insurance and freight at the importer"s border CPI

Consumer Price Index

ECB

European Central Bank

EER effective exchange rate EMI

European Monetary Institute

EMU

Economic and Monetary Union

ESA 95

European System of Accounts 1995

ESCB

European System of Central Banks

EU

European Union

EUR euro f.o.b. free on board at the exporter"s border GDP gross domestic product HICP

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

HWWI

Hamburg Institute of International Economics

ILO

International Labour Organization

IMF

International Monetary Fund

MFI monetary financial institution NACE statistical classification of economic activities in the European Union NCB national central bank OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PPI

Producer Price Index

SITC Rev. 4

Standard International Trade Classification (revision 4) ULCM unit labour costs in manufacturing ULCT unit labour costs in the total economy In accordance with EU practice, the EU countries are listed in this Bulleti n using the alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages.

EDITORI

A L Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided at its meeting on 3 April to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Incoming information confirms that the moderate recovery of the euro area economy is proceeding in line with the Governing Council"s previous assessment. At the same time, recent information remains consistent with the Governing Council"s expectation of a prolonged period of low inflation followed by a gradual upward movement in HICP inflation rates. The signals from the monetary analysis confirm the picture of subdued underlying price pressures in the euro area over the medium term. Inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council"s aim of maintaining inflation rates below , but close to, 2%. Looking ahead, the Governing Council will monitor developments very closely and will consider all instruments available. The Governing Council is resolute in its determination to maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation and to act swiftly if required. Hence, it does not exclude

further monetary policy easing and firmly reiterates that it continues to expect the key ECB interest

rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the high degree of unutilised capacity and subdued money and credit creation. At the same time, the Governing Council is closely following developments on money markets. It is unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional instruments within its mandate in order to cope effectively with risks of a too prolonged perio d of low inflation.

Regarding the

economic analysis, real GDP in the euro area rose by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the last quarter of 2013, after 0.1% in the third quarter and 0.3% in th e second quarter. Survey data that encompass the first quarter of this year are consistent with continued moderate growth, confirming previous expectations that the ongoing recovery is increasingly supported by firmer domestic demand. Looking ahead, some further improvement in domestic demand should materialise, supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance, ongoing improvements in financing conditions working their way through to the real economy, and the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. In addition, real incomes are supported by moderate price developments, in particular lower energy prices. Economic activity is also expected to benefit from a gradual strengthening of demand for euro area exports. At the same time, although labour markets have shown the first signs of improvement, unemployment in the euro area remains high and, overall, unutilised capacity is sizeable. Moreover, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors will continue to weigh on the pace of the economic recovery. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. Developments in global financial markets and in emerging market economies, as well as geopolitical risks, may have the potential to affect economic conditions negatively. Other downside risks include weaker than expected domestic demand and insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries, as well as weaker export growth. According to Eurostat"s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.5% in March 2014, down from 0.7% in February. The decrease reflects falls in the annual ra tes of change of the food, goods and services components, partly offset by a more moderate decline in energy prices. On the basis of current exchange rates and prevailing futures prices for energy, annual HICP inflation is expected to pick up somewhat in April, partly related to the volatili ty of services prices in the months around Easter. Over the following months, annual HICP inflation is expected to remain low, before gradually increasing during 2015 to reach levels closer to 2% towards the end of 2016. At the same time, medium to long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability. The Governing Council sees both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments as limited and broadly balanced over the medium term. In this context, the possible repercussions of both geopolitical risks and exchange rate developments will be monito red closely.

Turning to the

monetary analysis, data for February 2014 point to subdued underlying gr owth in broad money (M3). Annual growth in M3 was broadly stable in February at 1.3%, compared with

1.2% in January. The growth of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained robust at 6.2% in

February, after 6.1% in January. The main factor supporting annual M3 growth continued to be the

increase in the MFI net external asset position, reflecting the keen interest of international investors

in euro area assets. MFI loans to the private sector continued to decline in February. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) was -3.1%, compared with -2.8% in January. Weak loan dynamics for non-financial corporations continue to reflect their lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) stood at 0.4% in February 2014, still broadly unchanged since the beginning of 2013. Since the summer of 2012, substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks. In order to ensure an adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions in

euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets declines further

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