[PDF] A scenario analysis of lifestyles in France in 2050 and carbon

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CLIPLifestyles and

n° september 2013 Abridged version of the final reportCyria EMELIANOFF

Les cahiers du Club d?Ingénierie

ADEME

Le Club d?Ingénierie

IDDRI coordinates CLIP activities

Cahiers du CLIP

Members:

Introduction 5

Description of five visions of lifestyles in 2050

Methodology for building 2050 visions

8 Initial assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on the Segmentation of the French population andhousehold carbon footprint In support of an open public debate over lifestyles

Bibliography

84

Lifestyles and

Iddri - 27, rue Saint-Guillaume - 75337 Paris Cedex 07 CLIP

Director of publications: Michel COLOMBIER

Les cahiers du Club d"Ingénierie Prospective Énergie et Environnement

Authors

Cyria EMELIANOFF and Elsa MOR, UMR 6590, Université du Maine,

With the contribution of

Jean-Yves AUTHIER, Groupe de recherche sur la socialisation, UMR 5040, Université Lyon 2, ?e “Rethinking cities in a post carbon society" programme The research programme "Foresight analysis of lifestyles in France in 2050 and carbon footprints"

Financial support

The research programme "Foresight analysis of lifestyles in 2050" received financial support from

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 4

Introduction

Sustainable lifestyles and consumption pat

et al., 2005) (Char et al., 2006) (Geerken et al., 2008). It is et al., 2004). The et al., 2006). People living in

State of the World, 2004) or

State of

, 2004). There is thus considerable

5 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

social representations and in ways of living,

The research went on to look at the near

The second stage of the research involved

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 6

A quantitative evaluation of greenhouse gas

The findings are discussed and interpreted

7 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

Description of ?ve

Methodology for building 2050 visions

Given the uncertainty they involve, lifestyles

uncer regarding the direction of change is consequence of action taken elsewhere, in

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 8

topics, as well as discussions; and the actual demography, consumption, . Within these subjects, the culture and values,

1 GODET M., 2007. Manuel de prospective stratégique, two volumes, CNAM, Dunod ; DATAR, 1975. La méth

, DATAR, La Documentation

9 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

?e Green Consumer Society

The green consumer society is situated in a

Political organisation

Economic tension at the international level

2 Source: Insee"s central scenario.

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 10

new room for manoeuvre. Proactive national

Production systems

Production systems have remained central

11 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

on the development of renewable energy,

Technological innovation

The development of renewable energy (RE)

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 12

and Southern solar power. The DESERTEC

13 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

Many nanotechnology-based products have

Socio-spatial organisation and

Population growth largely concerns urban

3 A one-seater electric vehicle, featuring two-wheeled platform on which the user stands.

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 14

journey. Despite the unpredictable impacts

Sociability and values

The work ethic is central to social identity and

Chasse, Pêche, Nature

party (Hunting, fishing, nature

Lifestyles and consumption patterns

For those who work, time is continually

4 Based on the pessimistic scenario of the Charpin group.

15 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

being conducted until later at night. The 24- e Enhanced Human Society

The enhanced individual, with its sights set on

5 The chiemgauer is a local “melting currency," created in a region of Bavaria in 2003. Its value declines over

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 16

intelligence and mechanical prostheses, the

Globalia (Ruffin, 2004), the “enhanced"

Political organisation

The coalition between political and economic

17 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

possible, especially on the political level. The

Production system

The economy operates at the global scale

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 18

has expanded, invading the social space. The

Technological innovation

Social innovation is giving way to technologi

19 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

with centralised systems. These energy sav

Socio-spatial organisation and

Urbanisation is gaining momentum, and now

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 20

dependent on social category. The “minuses"

Sociability and values

Virtual contacts and exchanges have greatly

21 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

and many others) are being recreated, and are

Lifestyles and consumption patterns

The boundaries between work and daily ac

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 22

water content, which helps to promote e- e Dual Society and Multiple Frugal

Social change is driven by an economy that is

23 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

the Internet. The closest model we have is that

Political organisation

The geopolitical situation is structurally the

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 24

worlds are not entirely self-contained: within

Production systems

The plural economy depends at both ends of

25 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

extensification, competition for land makes

Technological and social innovation

Within the communities, social innovation is

Socio-spatial organisation and

The most salient feature is the repopulation

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 26

housing gives landscapes a jumbled, colour

Bâtiments de France archi

Sociability and values

Competition for jobs and the quest for per

27 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

face of socio-economic difficulties. Paradoxi

Lifestyles and consumption patterns

Although the importance of work is not

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 28

daily life. In urban areas, working hours have

29 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

?e Environmental-Citizenship Society

Facing limits on natural resources and farm

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 30

An understanding of the impact of lifestyle

Pro-environmental tax policies and re

The replacement of GDP by EDP (Environ

Refinement of environmental capital as a

Political organisation

Ulrich Beck"s reference to “cosmopolitanism"

Conseil supérieur de l"audiovisuel et du

, receives public funding to ensure

Economic organisation

The business world, which previously empha

31 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

some companies is thus used as “inputs" by

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 32

This complementarity optimizes production

Technological and social innovation

The new system encourages all actors to

managers have created a progressive rate experts are thus encouraged to develop consumers have adopted environmentally-

With research and development focused in

many positive-energy buildings have been lighter vehicles consume increasingly less renewable energies (wind, sun, geothermal,

Socio-spatial organisation and

Urbanization has stabilized, to the detriment

33 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

with employment achieving a new balance

Sociability and values

A new hierarchy of values favours “being"

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 34

from the outset. They are more sustainable,

Lifestyles and consumption patterns

Consumer preferences have changed con

35 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

mobility (including walking and biking). Al e Knowledge Age Society

This scenario assumes a profound economic

grandes has created greater openness to col

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 36

universities organize knowledge-based ac

Political organisation

The inability of the public and private sectors

37 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

have proliferated, with data provided by net

Economic organisation

Economic exchanges are based on a contribu

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 38

public riots that destroyed the financial dis chiemgauer). Within the market economy,

Technological and social innovation

Technological innovations are associated pri

39 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

These issues involve a growing number of ser

et all

Socio-spatial organisation and

Knowledge exchange is the driving force for

Sociability and values

Sociability is characterized primary by an ac

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 40

new knowledge together. The family has ad basis in response to calls that circulate on

41 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

Lifestyles and consumption patterns

Consumption has declined sharply and con

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 42

Initial as

The exercise presented here is a trial as

43 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

Segmentation of the French population

To account for the disparities of lifestyles

Available income

Family structure

Residential location

Income

We sought a differentiation of households

T1

We note that segmenting the population

Table 1

Income group de?nitions

Employees

Workers

Unemployed

Income 0

Farmers

Tradesmen, merchants,

business owners

Technicians and associate

professionals

Income +Managers and professionals

RetireesRetirees

Figure 1

Distribution of income categories

by household income quintile

14Millions of households

12 10

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 44

Consequently, income disparities between low

F1

Numbers

Figure 2 shows the distribution of the French

F2

According to this typology, 60% of France"s

Quantification methodology

To conduct a detailed assessment of the im

Housing

The “individuals" database describes housing

Surface area (six brackets)

Main heating energy

Period built (eight periods)

Building type: private house or apartment

Number of occupants

Figure 2

Number of individuals by population group (2008)

012345678Millions of individuals

Retirees

0

Income

Retirees

0

Income

Retirees

0

Income

Retirees

0

Income

Adults withchildrenAdults living togetherSingle-parentfamilySingle person

RuralUrbanPeri-urban

45 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

National energy consumption was calcu

Mobility

The French National Transport and Travel

Food

The personal carbon footprint (Bilan carbone

Purchase of goods and services

Services. On a national level, the Enerter

Bilan carbone

Goods. The personal carbon footprint is

Preparing for a Life Cycle CO

, and applied to the budget of the vari

GHG emissions in the reference year

By applying the methodology described

Overall results

Average overall 2008 emissions are estimat

Lifestyles and carbon footprints

I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I 46

energy consumption (housing, daily mobility F3

Disparities based on household type

The average of 7.5 tonnes of CO

T2

Based on household type, emissions per per

F4

We noted in a prior chapter that the in

Les (F. Lenglart, C. Lesieur, J.-L. Pasquier,

Figure 3

Distribution of emissions by item

Goods

Services

Housing

mobility mobility

FoodDaily

Long-distance22%

30%

8%19%6%15%

7.5Average

tCO 2 eq/cap/yr

Table 2

Household emissions

Family structuretCO

2 eq ca p yr In comeRuralPeri-urbanUrban Ad ults wi th children

Income -

6.35.8

Income 07.87.5

Income +9.08.5

Retirees8.47.9

Ad ults livin g together

Income -

7.26.4

Income 09.38.8

Income +10.910.0

Retirees8.68.1

Single-parent family

Income -

6.05.3

Income 08.07.2

Income +9.98.2

Retirees8.17.4

Single person

Income -

8.46.7

Income 010.59.4

Income +14.010.9

Retirees9.38.66.3

7.4 9.3 8.0 7.1 8.7 11 .0 8.3 6.3 7.7 9.5 8.1 8.2 10 .7 14 .1 8.9

Figure 4

Household emissions by income group

10tCO 2 eq / cap/ yr 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

0Goods

Services

Housing

Daily mobility

Long-distance mobility

Food 0

Income

47 I Les Cahiers du Clip n° 21 I Lifestyles and carbon footprints

obtained for that exercise because income food item. F5

Family structure is the second influential pa

F6 F7

Only those items related to mobility vary

Figure 5

CO 2 emissions by household income quintile 10tCO 2 eq / cap / yr 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

0Goods

Services

Housing

Source : Les émissions de CO

2 du circuit économique en France (F. Lenglart, C. Lesieur, J-L Pasquier, Insee références, 2010) Food

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5

Figure 6

Household emissions by family structure

9tCO 2 eq / cap / yr10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Goods

Adults with

childrenAdults living togetherSingle-parent familySingle person ServicesHousingDaily mobilityLong-distance mobilityFood

Figure 7

Emissions by location

9tCO 2 eq / cap / yr10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2quotesdbs_dbs32.pdfusesText_38

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