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Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan

November 1998

State of Hawaii

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

Energy, Resources, and Technology Division

and

Department of Health

Clean Air Branch

Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan

November 1998

Edited by

Steven C. Alber, Energy Analyst

Climate Change Action Program Manager

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

John Tantlinger, Manager

Strategic Industry Development Branch

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

Maurice H. Kaya

Energy, Resources, and Technology Program Administrator Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

Chapters 1-10 and 14 written by

Steven C. Alber, Energy Analyst

Climate Change Action Program Manager

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism Chapters 11-12 on Municipal Waste Management and Agriculture produced under a subcontract from the Department of Health by the University of Hawaii Environmental Center by

Jacquelin N. Miller, Principal Investigator

Noel Ludwig, Project Manager

Matthew Skeele, Research Assistant

Chapter 13 on Forestry written by

Michael Buck, Administrator, Forestry and Wildlife Division

Department of Land and Natural Resources

State of Hawaii

Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism

Energy, Resources, and Technology Division

and

Department of Health

Clean Air Branch

Funded by Cooperative Agreement CX 822845-01-3 with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation under the State and Local Outreach Program and matching funds appropriated in 1994 by the State of Hawaii Legislature

Disclaimer

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. Neither the United States nor the United States Environmental Protection Agency, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or services by trade name, mark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of the authors expressed herein doe not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States

Government or any agency thereof.

Printed on Recycled Paper

This report has been cataloged as follows:

Hawaii. Dept. of Business, Economic Development & Tourism. Energy, Resources, and

Technology Division.

Hawaii climate change action plan, by the Energy, Resources, and Technology Division, Dept. of Business, Economic Development & Tourism and the Clean Air Branch, Dept. of Health, State of Hawaii. Honolulu: 1997.

1. Climatic changes-Planning-Hawaii. Greenhouse gases-Hawaii. I. Hawaii.

Dept. of Health. Clean Air Branch.

TD885.5.G73.H39.1998

Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan iTABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1Overview and Summary of Recommendations.................1-1

1.2Chapter 2: Hawaii and Global Climate Change................1-2

1.3Chapter 3: 1990 Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions..........1-3

1.4Chapter 4: Forecast of Hawaii's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

to 2020...........................................1-5

1.5Chapter 5: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Goals

and Criteria for Hawaii................................1-7

1.6Chapter 6: Transportation Energy..............................1-9

1.7Chapter 7: Electricity......................................1-11

1.8Chapter 8: Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Energy.......1-14

1.9Chapter 9: Energy System Scenario Analysis...........................1-15

1.10Chapter 10: Industrial Processes.................................1-17

1.11Chapter 11: Municipal Waste Management........................1-17

1.12Chapter 12: Agriculture.............................................1-19

1.13Chapter 13: Forestry.....................................................1-19

1.14Chapter 14: Research and Development, Future Technology, and

Technology Export..................................................1-20 Chapter 2Hawaii and Global Climate Change...............................2-1 2.1 2.2 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change..............................2-1 2.3 Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on Hawaii .............2-10 2.4

RECOMMENDATION: Hawaii Should Take Action

to Deal with Global Climate Change...............................2-15 Chapter 31990 Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions..........................3-1

3.2Estimated 1990 Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions....................3-1

3.3Estimated Global Warming Potential of Hawaii Greenhouse Gas

iiHawaii Climate Change Action Plan

3.4Estimated Greenhouse Gas Precursor Emissions.................3-9

3.5Estimated Emissions from International, Overseas, and Military Uses..3-9

3.6Comparison of Estimated Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions with

Selected States.............................3-12

Chapter 4Hawaii's Forecast Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020..........4-1

4.2Forecast Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020.................4-1

4.3Climate Change Action Plan Scenario........................4-4

4.4Hawaii Technical Potential Scenario................................4-6

4.5Comparison of the Scenarios and Additional Measures...............4-7

Chapter 5Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Goals and Criteria for Hawaii....................................................5-1

5.2Reasons for State Action...........................................5-1

5.3Examples of Climate Change Action Goals.........................5-3

5.4Establishing Goals and Evaluative Criteria...........................5-6

5.5Recommendations for Goal Setting in Hawaii...........................5-10

Chapter 6Transportation Energy...................................................6-1

6.2Hawaii's Transportation Energy Sector...............................6-1

6.3Ground Transportation..................................................6-4

6.4Air Transportation......................................................6-23

6.5Marine Transportation....................................................6-38

Chapter 7Electricity.................................................................7-1

7.2Hawaii's Electricity Sector..................................................7-2

7.3Cross-Cutting Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.............7-11

7.4Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through Demand-Side Management

and Energy Efficiency Programs.......................................7-19

Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan iii

7.5Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Supply .........7-41

7.6Electricity Sector CO

2 Emissions Savings Summary............7-57

Chapter 8Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Energy...........8-1

8.2Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors Emissions.........8-2

8.3Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.....................8-4

Chapter 9Energy System Scenario Analysis...........................9-1

9.2Modeling Electricity Options.....................................9-2

9.3Transportation Energy Scenarios....................................9-10

9.4Carbon Tax Scenarios.............................................9-12

9.5 Combination Scenarios................................................9-14

9.6Estimated Economic Effects of Scenarios............................9-17

9.7Scenario-Based Recommendations....................................9-19

Chapter 10Industrial Processes...................................................10-1

10.21990 Estimated Emissions Baseline...................................10-1

10.3Reducing Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Oil Refining.....10-3

10.4Reducing Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Synthetic

Natural Gas Production and Distribution..............................10-3 Chapter 11Municipal Waste Management.......................................11-1

11.2Emissions from Municipal Waste Management.........................11-1

11.3Recommended Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from

Municipal Solid Waste..................................................11-4

11.4Recommended Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from

Municipal Wastewater Treatment.....................................11-27 Chapter 12Agriculture.............................................................12-1 ivHawaii Climate Change Action Plan

12.2Emissions from Agricultural Activities.................12-1

12.3Emissions from Livestock and Manure Management.........12-2

12.4Recommended Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from

Livestock and Manure Management.......................12-4

12.5Recommended Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from

Fertilizer and Compost................................12-20 Chapter 13Forestry..................................................13-1

13.2Forests and Greenhouse Gas Reduction.......................13-1

13.3What Happens to Carbon in a Forest?...........................13-3

13.4Hawaii's Forests..................................................13-4

13.5Developing Hawaii's Forestry Sector.............................13-5

13.6Forestry and Emissions Trading Under the Kyoto Protocol.........13-7

13.7Carbon Sequestration Potentials of the Forest Sector in Hawaii........13-12

13.8Recommendations for Carbon Offset Forestry in Hawaii........13-14

Chapter 14Research and Development and Technology Export............14-1

14.2Hawaii Research and Development Projects.............................14-1

14.3Future Technology.................................................14-5

14.4Hawaii's Strategic Technology Marketing and

Development Program.................................................14-11 Appendix AAcknowledgements..................................................A-1 Appendix BBibliography..........................................................B-1 Appendix CThe ENERGY 2020 Model............................................C-1 Appendix DHawaii Climate Change Action Plan Workshop....................D-1 Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan 1-1CHAPTER 1OVERVIEW AND

SUMMARY OF RECOMMEND

ATIONS1.1Introduction

1.1.1Hawaii and Climate Change

Hawaii faces many potential negative consequences from global warming and climate change. Higher temperatures could make Hawaii less of a paradise, not only due to the greater heat, but also due to potential effects on climate. Greater heat may cause more heat-related mortality. Concentrations of ground-level ozone could increase, causing respiratory illnesses. Warmer seas could enhance growth of toxic algae and bacterial contamination of coastal waters. Warmer weather could expand the habitat of disease-carrying insects to Hawaii. Sea level rise is occurring and could lead to coastal flooding, erosion of beaches, and saltwater contamination of drinking water. During storms, additional areas will become vulnerable to waves and storm surge. In addition, Hawaii can expect negative effects on its water resources, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems.

1.1.2Hawaii and Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has determined that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate" (IPCC 1996). The IPCC notes the increased concentration of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO

2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) since

pre-industrial times largely due to human activity. These increased concentrations have warmed the surface and tend to produce other changes in climate. Climate change effects have already been observed and will occur in the future. It will be necessary to stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases to prevent even more dramatic changes in climate than are expected over the next century due to greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Hawaii can and should play a role in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. All states and all nations will ultimately need to contribute to efforts to mitigate effects on future climate change.

1.1.3Hawaii's Climate Change Action Plan

This is Hawaii's first iteration of a Climate Change Action Plan. It does not set specific goals. It is intended to be a catalyst for discussions by Hawaii's people about their involvement in future efforts to reduce emissions and to adapt to climate change. The major recommendation of this first plan is to develop consensus as to Hawaii's goals for greenhouse gas emission reductions.

1-2Hawaii Climate Change Action PlanA Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan Workshop on October 30, 1997 was a

preliminary effort to obtain citizen input on Hawaii's goals and suggestions for greenhouse gas emission reduction measures. About 100 citizens heard a report on the state's efforts in the area of climate change action and provided their views on ways to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions. A Workshop summary is provided as Appendix D to this Plan. Hawaii could become part of future national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocols signed on November 12, 1998. Should the United States Senate ratify the Protocols, or should the Federal government set some other goal, such a goal could serve as Hawaii's goal. Hawaii's people may not want to wait for such action to deal with the growing problem. Hawaii can set its own goals for action now. In addition, further work is needed to identify future effects of climate change on Hawaii's people, environment, ecosystems, and economy in order to identify changes to which the state must adapt. To assist in any goal setting effort that may evolve, a more detailed discussion of goal setting is contained in Chapter 5.

1.1.4About This Plan

This plan is Phase II of the Program for Developing, Implementing, and Evaluating a Greenhouse Reduction Strategy for the State of Hawaii conducted jointly by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development, & Tourism's (DBEDT) Energy, Resources, and Technology Division; and the Department of Health's (DOH) Clean Air Branch. This work was performed with the support of a grant from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) as part of the State and Local Outreach Program. In addition, other State agencies, notably the Department of Land and Natural Resources, the Department of Agriculture, Department of Transportation and the Public Utilities Commission provided data, technical assistance, and review. The four Counties, various federal agencies, and many private companies made additional contributions. These contributions are acknowledged in Appendix A.

1.2Chapter 2: Hawaii and Global Climate Change

Chapter 2 discusses Hawaii and Global Climate Change. It includes an overview of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change and the potential impact of climate change on Hawaii.

1.2.1The Science of Climate Change

Chapter 2 provides an extract from Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report (IPCC 1996), published in 1996 by the Intergovernmental Panel

Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan 1-3on Climate Change (IPCC). The key conclusions covered the Chapter include the

following: · Greenhouse gas concentrations have continued to increase;

· Climate has changed over the past century;

· The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate; · Climate is expected to continue to change in the future; and · There are still many uncertainties (IPCC 1996).

1.2.2Potential Effects on Hawaii

Chapter 2 also provides a summary of potential effects on Hawaii based upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II's Summary for Policy Makers: Scientific-Technical Analysis of Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigations of Climate Change (IPCC 1995b) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change and Hawaii (USEPA 1998a). Major effects expected for Hawaii include:

· Warmer temperatures;

· Increases in heat-related deaths and illnesses; · Sea level rise with resultant flooding, beach erosion, saltwater contamination of drinking water, and damage to coastal property;

· Increased vulnerability to storm damage;

· Effects on water resources expected to become more variable; · Undetermined effects on agriculture and forestry; and

· Stresses on ecosystems.

Hawaii Should Take Action to Deal with Climate Change The fundamental recommendation of this plan is that Hawaii should take action to reduce its emissions that contribute to global warming and climate change. Hawaii should also identify the future effects on its people, environment, ecosystems, and economy that will be caused by climate change already occurring. Hawaii should then develop a long-range plan to adapt to such climate change.

1.3Chapter 3: 1990 Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Chapter 3 presents a summary of Hawaii's estimated emissions of the greenhouse gases in 1990. The summary is based upon the work done in Phase I of the Program for Developing, Implementing, and Evaluating a Greenhouse Reduction Strategy for the State of Hawaii which produced the Inventory of Hawaii

1-4Hawaii Climate Change Action PlanGreenhouse Gas Emissions, Estimates for 1990 (State of Hawaii 1997a). The

Inventory was updated with additional information.

1.3.1Estimated 1990 Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions

An estimated 15,985,225 tons of CO

2, 75,736 tons of CH4, and 690 tons of N2O

comprised Hawaii greenhouse gas emissions in 1990. These emissions were produced by energy uses, industrial processes, and non-energy sources within the state. The Hawaii baseline estimate did not include about 29% of the fuels imported, refined, or produced in Hawaii in 1990. These fuels were not used in Hawaii, but were sold as fuel for aircraft for international flights, ships involved in overseas operations, sold to the military, or exported.

1.3.2Estimated Global Warming Potential of Hawaii Greenhouse GasEmissions

Global Warming Potential, or GWP, is used to compare the relative effects of each of the different greenhouse gases on radiative forcing of the atmosphere over some future time horizon. It translates the level of emissions of CO

2, CH4 and N2O into

a common metric -- their CO

2 equivalent.

Hawaii's GWP in 1990 was the equivalent of 18,784,299 tons of CO

2. CO2

emissions produced 90% of Hawaii's global warming potential, followed by CH4 at 9%, and N2O at 1%. Energy use emissions dominated Hawaii's GWP at 89%. Transportation energy use produced 42% of GWP, followed by electricity generation at 41%, municipal waste management at 7%, industrial energy use at

4%, agriculture at 3%, and commercial energy uses at 1% were significant. The

remaining sectors, residential energy and industrial processes, each contributed less than one percent to total global warming potential. This breakdown is useful in focusing efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions on the major sources.

1.3.3Comparison of Estimated Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions withSelected States

The global warming potential of the United States in 1990 was 5,567,000,000 tons of CO

2 equivalent (USEPA 1994b, ES-5). Hawaii's GWP of 18,784,299 tons of

CO

2 equivalent was 1/3 of one percent of the United States total.

In Section 3.6 of Chapter 3, Hawaii's GWP in tons of CO

2 equivalent is compared

with the GWP of 17 other states that completed greenhouse gas inventories under the EPA's State and Local Outreach Program. The GWP in tons of CO 2 equivalent per capita, based on 1990 resident population and in pounds CO2 equivalent per dollar of 1990 Gross State Product (GSP) were also presented for comparison. Among this group of states, Hawaii produced the fourth-smallest quantity of CO

2 equivalent emissions per capita and the third-lowest per dollar of

GSP (USDOE 1992a, 224 and USEPA 1998k).

Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan 1-5Jet fuel use for Hawaii's domestic air transportation (interisland and to/from the

United States Mainland) created 3.84 million tons CO

2, or 21% of the total. This

was a greater percentage than for any other state. When the estimated CO 2 emissions from jet fuel use were subtracted from each state's total GWP, Hawaii had the lowest GWP per capita and lowest GWP per dollar of GSP. These results point out the relatively low impact of Hawaii's people on climate change, but also emphasize the difficulty Hawaii faces in making significant reductions in its emissions. Jet fuel is essential to Hawaii's tourism-based economy and the well- being of its people.

1.4Chapter 4: Forecast of Hawaii's Greenhouse Gas

Emissions to 2020

Chapter 4 presents and compares forecasts of Hawaii's greenhouses gas emissions to the year 2020. The ENERGY 2020 model was used for the energy portion of the forecast. The generation units in the baseline scenario included current operating units and future retirements and additions according to utility integrated resource plans. It was assumed utility DSM plans were implemented for 20 years. The effects of all federal appliance standards and the Hawaii Model Energy Code were also modeled. A description of the ENERGY 2020 model is provided in

Appendix C.

Municipal waste management and agriculture baseline estimates were from projections developed by the University of Hawaii Environmental Center. The estimates included emissions from municipal solid waste management, wastewater treatment, livestock, manure management, and fertilizer use.

1.4.1Forecast Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020

The Baseline Forecast indicated that, without additional actions, Hawaii's global warming potential will increase by 20% over 1990 levels by 2010 and by 33% of

1990 levels by 2020. In 2010, it was estimated that Hawaii's global warming

potential could be 5,060,992 tons CO

2 equivalent, or 29% above the Kyoto target

of 17,574,758 tons CO

2 equivalent. Total global warming potential was estimated

to increase from 18,897,590 tons of CO

2 equivalent to 25,094,245 tons by 2020 --

7,519,487 tons CO

2 equivalent, or 43%, above the Kyoto target. Hawaii clearly

faces major challenges in its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

1.4.2Climate Change Action Plan Scenario

In the following chapters, a number of measures were identified that could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Hawaii. In this first Climate Change Action Plan, these measures were intended to offer a direction for future action. Many will require significant changes over current practices. While it is not clear which recommended measures will be implemented, it was useful to

1-6Hawaii Climate Change Action Planexamine their aggregate effect on Hawaii's global warming potential. Together,

these measures were termed the "Climate Change Action Plan Scenario." The Climate Change Action Plan Forecast assumed actions under Scenario C3 were taken. C3, described in detail in Chapter 9, was intended to examine the emission reductions under the control of various entities in Hawaii. The measures proposed under the Climate Change Action Plan Scenario have the potential to reduce the growth of Hawaii's greenhouse gas emissions significantly. Only the energy sector was projected to increase its emissions under this scenario. Nevertheless, emissions from all sectors grew about 4% by 2010, which was

2,116,882 tons CO

2 equivalent or about 12% above the Kyoto target.

1.4.3Hawaii Technical Potential Scenario

The Technical Potential Forecast added possible technical improvements in the energy sector such as the availability of more efficient aircraft and ground transportation vehicles to the Climate Change Action Plan. The Technical Potential Scenario resulted in a forecast global warming potential in 2010 that was

1,734,123 tons CO

2-equivalent, or about 10%, greater than the Kyoto target.

Comparison of the Scenarios and Additional Measuresquotesdbs_dbs5.pdfusesText_9

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