[PDF] POPULATION ET ENVIRONMENT stabiliser et que les craintes

3 Figure 1: La croissance de la population mondiale de 1750 aux projections ˆ lÕhorizon 2100 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, Medium Variant;CaldwellandSchindlmayr, 2002. Figure 2 : Accroissement annuel net de la population par dŽcennie, de 1750 ˆ 2100 Sources: United Nations 2010, Repetto, 1991

8 le Mali, dont les taux de croissance de la population sont proches de 3d. A ce taux, chaque nouvelle gŽnŽration aura une taille deux fois plus grande que la gŽnŽration qui lÕa prŽcŽdŽe. Le profil des ‰ges dÕune telle population ressemble ˆ une pyramide nFigure 5). ConsidŽrons maintenant lÕavenir dŽmographique dÕEquatoria. Si ce taux de croissance continue, la population doublera tous les 25 ans. Si la population dÕEquatoria Žtait de 7 millions en 2000, comme le montre le diagramme, elle sera de 14 millions en 2025, de 28 millions en 2050, et de 56 millions en 2075. Il nÕexiste pas de pays qui puisse supporter longtemps les pressions ˆ la fois sociales et environnementales qui dŽcouleraient dÕun accroissement si rapide. Il est Žvident que le taux de croissance de la population doive dŽcliner ˆ un certain moment. Pour que ce soit le cas, il faut que le taux de fŽconditŽ se mette ˆ baisser. Le taux de fŽconditŽ est un ratio dŽfini comme le nombre de dÕenfants nŽs en moyenne dÕune femme Ç moyenne È pendant sa vie. Un taux de croissance de la population aussi ŽlevŽ que celui dÕEquatoria signifie que le taux de fŽconditŽ est au moins de 5 enfants par femme ou plus. Ceci sÕobserve encore une fois frŽquemment dans de nombreux pays en dŽveloppement. Les taux de fŽconditŽ pour les pays dÕAfrique Sub-Saharienne Žtaient en 2011 souvent plus ŽlevŽs que 5 enfants par femme : 5,7 au Nigeria, 6,4 au Mali et 7 au Niger. Dans dÕautres rŽgions du monde, de forts niveaux de fŽconditŽ sÕobservent dans des pays tels que le Guatemala n3,6 enfants par femme), lÕIraq n4,7 enfants par femme) ou lÕAfghanistan n6,3 enfants par femme) .5 5 Population Reference Bureau, nb2011.

11 population dÕEurope occidentale prŽsentŽe dans la Figure 6). Inversement, un dŽclin lent de la fŽconditŽ conduirait le monde ˆ une population bien plus ŽlevŽe et porteuse dÕun potentiel dÕaccroissement fort en 2030 nvoir figure 7). Figure 6 : Structure par ‰ge des populations de lÕAfrique Sub-Saharienne et de lÕEurope Occidentale, 1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2011 at http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

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