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Machine Learning and Cosmological Simulations I: Semi-Analytical

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MNRAS000,1 {18( 2015)P reprint20 Au gust201 8Co mpiledusi ngM NRASL ATEX style le v3.0

Machine Learning and Cosmological Simulations I:

Semi-Analytical Models

Harshil M. Kamdar

1;2?, Matthew J. Turk2;4and Robert J. Brunner2;3;4;5

1 Department of Physics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

2Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

3Department of Statistics, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA

4National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

5Beckman Institute For Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801 USA

Accepted 2015 October 1. Received 2015 September 30; in original form 2015 July 2

ABSTRACT

We present a new exploratory framework to model galaxy formation and evolution in a hierarchical universe by using machine learning (ML). Our motivations are two- fold: (1) presenting a new, promising technique to study galaxy formation, and (2) quantitatively analyzing the extent of the in uence of dark matter halo properties on galaxies in the backdrop of semi-analytical models (SAMs). We use the in uential Millennium Simulation and the corresponding Munich SAM to train and test vari- ous sophisticated machine learning algorithms (k-Nearest Neighbors, decision trees, random forests and extremely randomized trees). By using only essential dark matter halo physical properties for haloes ofM >1012Mand a partial merger tree, our model predicts the hot gas mass, cold gas mass, bulge mass, total stellar mass, black hole mass and cooling radius at z = 0 for each central galaxy in a dark matter halo for the Millennium run. Our results provide a unique and powerful phenomenolog- ical framework to explore the galaxy-halo connection that is built upon SAMs and demonstrably place ML as a promising and a computationally ecient tool to study small-scale structure formation. Key words:galaxies: halo { galaxies: formation { galaxies: evolution { cosmology: theory { large-scale structure of Universe

1 INTRODUCTION

In recent years, with the introduction of surveys such as SDSS

1, DES2, and LSST3, the amount of data available to

astronomers has exploded. These massive data sets have en- abled astronomers to form and test sophisticated models that explain cosmic structure formation in the universe. Cos- mological simulations are a rich subset of these models and have consequently, also been on the rise; these simulations provide a concrete link between theory and observation. It has been argued that the CDM model (

Peebles

1 982 B lu- menthal et al. 1 984

Da viset a l.

1 985 )i sa swid elya ccepted as it is today largely due to the emergence of these high- resolution numerical simulations (

Springel

20 05 ).Ho wever, modeling galaxy formation accurately by using numerical simulations remains an important problem in modern astro- physics, both scientically and computationally.

E-mail: hkamdar2@illinois.edu

1www.sdss.org

2www.darkenergysurvey.org

3www.lsst.orgThe evolution of collisionless dark matter particles at

large scales has been studied exhaustively at unprecedent- edly high resolutions, given the meteoric rise in computa- tional power and the relative simplicity of these simulations

Springel

2 005

S pringelet a l.

2 005

Kl ypine ta l.

2 011 An - gulo et al. 2 012

S killmanet a l.

2 014 ).Th efo rmationo f structure on the scale of galaxies, however, has been incred- ibly dicult to model (

Somerville& Da ve

2 014 );t hed i- culty arises primarily because baryonic physics at this scale is governed by a wide range of dissipative and/or nonlinear processes, some of which are poorly understood (

Kang et al.

2005

B augh

2 006

S omerville& Da ve

2 014 Broadly speaking, there are two prevalent techniques used to understand galaxy formation and evolution: semi- analytical modeling (SAM) and simulations that include both hydrodynamics and gravity. The former is a post de facto technique that combines dark matter only simulations with approximate physical processes at the scale of a galaxy Baugh 2 006 ).T heS AMu sedin t hisw orkis d etailedin C ro- ton et al. 2006

De Lu ciaet a l.

2006

De Lu cia& B laizot

2007
)( hereafterDLB 07),an d

G uoe ta l.

2011
)(h ereafter c

2015 The AuthorsarXiv:1510.06402v1 [astro-ph.GA] 21 Oct 2015

2Harshil M. Kamdar, Matthew J. Turk, Robert J. Brunner

G11). For a general, exhaustive review of the motivation of SAMs and a comparison of dierent SAMs, the reader is referred to

Ba ugh

2006

S omerville& Da ve

2014
)a nd

Knebe et al.

2015
).N -body+ h ydrodynamicalsi mulations (NBHS) evolve baryonic components using uid dynamics alongside regular dark matter evolution. The biggest ad- vantage of NBHS over SAMs is the self-consistent way in which gaseous interactions are treated in the former. How- ever, NBHS are incredibly computationally expensive to run and also require some approximations at the subgrid level similar to those applied in SAMs. Promising new NBHS are outlined in

V ogelsbergeret a l.

2014
)a nd

S chayeet al .

2015
).F ora next ensivec omparisono fS AMsa ndN BHS, the reader is referred to

B ensonet a l.

2001

Y oshidae ta l.

2002

M onacoet a l.

2014
)a nd

S omerville& Da ve

2014
Dark matter plays an integral role in galaxy formation; broadly speaking, dark matter haloes are `cradles' of galaxy formation ( Baugh 2 006 ).I ti sw ell-establishedt hatg asc ools hierarchically in the centers of dark matter haloes through mergers; the evolution of galaxies, however, is dictated by a wide variety of baryonic processes that are discussed later in this paper. While baryonic physics plays a crucial role in the outcome of gaseous interactions, the story always starts with gravitational collapse. However, no simple mapping has been found between the internal dark matter halo properties and the nal galaxy properties because of the sheer complexity of the baryonic interactions. For instance, in

Co ntreraset a l.

2015
),a sy stematicst udyo fth erel ationshipb etweenth e host halo mass and internal galaxy properties is performed. They conclude that no simple mapping was found between the cold gas mass or the star formation rate and the host halo mass. The lack of a relatively simple mapping between internal halo properties and the galaxy properties motivates many of the approximations that SAMs and NBHS make. Moreover, the computational costs associated with both standard galaxy formation models are incredibly high. The Illustris simulation (an NBHS) used a total of around

19 million CPU hours to run.

4SAMs, while signicantly

faster than NBHS, still require an appreciable amount of computational power. For instance, consider the open source GALACTICUS SAM put forth in

B enson

2012
);in

GALACTICUS, a halo of mass 10

12Mis evolved (with

baryonic physics) in around 2 seconds and a halo of mass 10

15Mis evolved in around 1.25 hours. Thus, a very rough

order of magnitude estimate can be made for the approxi- mate runtime for GALACTICUS. For about 500,000 dark matter haloes, and an average evolution time of approx- imately 2 minutes (corresponding to about 10

13M), the

time taken for GALACTICUS to build merger trees toz= 0 isO(15000) CPU hours. The lack of a simple mapping be- tween dark matter haloes and the properties of galaxies, the computational costs associated with the popular galaxy formation models and the highly nonlinear nature of the problem make galaxy formation incredibly hard to model, leaving room for new exploration. While SAMs, not limited to DLB07 and G11, have been incredibly successful in reproducing a lot of observations

White& F renk

1 991

Ka umannet a l.

1 993

Co leet a l.

1994

S omerville& P rimack

1 999

Co leet a l.

2 000 Ka ng 4 http://www.illustris-project.org/about/et al.2 005;B owere ta l.2 006;M onacoet a l.2 007;De Lu cia & Blaizot 2 007

La goset a l.

2 008

S omervilleet a l.

2 008

Weinmann et al.

2 010

De L aT orreet a l.

2 011 )a ndp roduce similar results to NBHS (

Bensonet a l.

2 001

S omerville&

Dave 2 014 ),th erest illexi sta fe wd ecienciesi nth eg eneral methodology of SAMs. Most importantly, the degeneracy in- herent to most SAMs is concerning (see, for e.g.,

H enriques

et al. 2009

B oweret a l.

2010

N eistein& W einmann

2010
)).S AMs( includingDLB 07a ndG1 1)u sesim pley et powerful, physically motivated analytical relationships for most processes that play a role in galaxy formation; these processes have several free parameters that are `tuned' to match up with observations. An alternative approach to model galaxy formation, that is physically much more transparent, was employed in

N eistein& W einmann

2010
)( hereafterrefe rredto a s NW). NW put forth a simple model that includes treat- ment of feedback, star formation, cooling, smooth accretion, gas stripping in satellite galaxies, and merger-induced star- bursts with one key dierence compared to conventional SAMs. In the NW model, the eciency of each physical process is assumed to depend only on the host halo mass and the redshift, making it a much simpler model than G11, DLB07, and other SAMs. NW produces a very similar pop- ulation of galaxies with similar physical properties to that of DLB07's (G11's predecessor). The success of NW raises an interesting question: could we go even further and try to learn more about the halo-galaxy connection using solely the halo environment and merger history, and would we be able to reproduce results found in conventional SAMs? How- ever, attempting to do so is a non-trivial task for several reasons. First, the inputs for the exploratory model aren't exactly clear. Second, the mappings between dark matter halo properties and galaxy properties are incredibly com- plex, as discussed earlier. NW, G11, and all other SAMs use simplied analytical relationships to capture complex bary- onic processes; these relationships have a partial, non-trivial dependence on internal halo properties but it is not clear how these analytical relationships can be used to build a dark matter-only model to probe galaxy formation and evo- lution. Given their non-parametric nature and their ability to successfully model complex phenomena, machine learning algorithms provide an interesting framework to explore this problem. A variety of statistical techniques, falling under the broad subeld of machine learning (ML), are gaining trac- tion in the physical sciences. The main goal of ML is to build highly ecient, non-parametric algorithms that at- tempt to learn complex relationships in and make predic- tions on large, high-dimensional data sets. Applications of ML to model highly complex physical models include pat- tern recognition in meteorological models (

Liu& W eisberg

2011
),p articlei dentication(

Roeet a l.

2 005 ),i nferrings tel- lar parameters from spectra (

Fiorentinet a l.

2 007 ),p ho- tometric redshift estimation (

Kind& B runner

2 013quotesdbs_dbs47.pdfusesText_47
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