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GE.15-18808(E)

*1518808*

Conference of the Parties

Twenty-first session

Paris, 30 November to 11 December 2015

Item 4(a) of the provisional agenda

Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17)

Report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban

Platform for Enhanced Action

Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions

Note by the secretariat

Summary This document presents a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the 119 intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) communicated by 147 Parties by 1 October 2015. It provides estimates of the aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in

2025 and 2030 resulting from the implementation of those INDCs. Those levels are

compared with the emission levels in 1990, 2000 and 2010 as well as with emission trajectories consistent with (1) action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period, and (2) holding the average global temperature rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. This

report identifies and discusses trends that indicate opportunities for enhanced action to address climate change in the longer term. In addition, it synthesizes information relating to

the adaptation component of the INDCs communicated by 100 Parties. United Nations FCCC/CP/2015/7 Distr.: General 30 October 2015 Original: English

FCCC/CP/2015/7

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Contents

Paragraphs Page

I. Summary ................................................................................................................ 170 3

A. Mandate and approach .................................................................................... 17 3

B. Overview of the communicated intended nationally determined contributions 810 4 C. Synthesis of information in the communicated intended nationally

determined contributions ................................................................................ 1132 4

D. Aggregate effect of the communicated intended nationally determined

contributions ................................................................................................... 3354 9

E. Adaptation component of the intended nationally determined contributions . 5570 14 II. Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined

contributions ............................................................................................................ 71312 17

A. Mandate and background ................................................................................ 7176 17

B. Overview of the intended nationally determined contributions ...................... 7780 18

C. Approach and methods ................................................................................... 81108 19

D. Synthesis of the information in the intended nationally determined

contributions ................................................................................................... 109186 26

E. Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions ........... 187241 39 F. Adaptation component of the intended nationally determined contributions . 242312 52

FCCC/CP/2015/7

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I. Summary

A. Mandate and approach

1. This document is a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally

determined contributions (INDCs) communicated by Parties in response to the invitation made by the Conference of the Parties (COP) in decisions 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20.

2. The COP, by decision 1/CP.20, paragraph 16(b), requested the secretariat to prepare

by 1 November 2015 a synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the INDCs communicated by Parties by 1 October 2015. This report contains information compiled and synthesized from the 119 INDCs of 147 Parties communicated by this date. An online technical annex contains further detailed information on the methodology used for the quantitative assessment contained in this report.1

3. In response to the mandate given to the secretariat, this report provides an estimate

of the aggregate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the implementation of the INDCs. The estimates have been calculated both in annual and cumulative terms. It also synthesizes information relating to the adaptation component of the INDCs communicated by Parties.

4. Given that not all Parties had communicated an INDC by 1 October 2015, and that

not all of the INDCs cover all gases and sectors, the estimated aggregate level of emissions covered by the INDCs is a subset of the total global emissions.2 To arrive at a global estimate of emissions in a certain year, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference scenarios have been used to estimate the emissions not covered by the INDCs until 2030. The chosen reference scenarios capture action communicated by Parties for the pre-2020 period and keep climate policies constant thereafter (hereinafter referred to as thequotesdbs_dbs7.pdfusesText_5

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