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UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON

Towards an Understanding of

Uncertainty on Wikipedia During

Crises: A Mixed Methods Approach

by

Reham Al Tamime

A thesis submitted in fulllment for the

degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the

FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING

Electronics and Computer Science

Web Science Institute

January 2020

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON

ABSTRACTFACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING

Electronics and Computer Science

Web Science Institute

Doctor of PhilosophybyRe hamAl T amime

This thesis proposes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the Wikipedia ed- itors' response to new disease outbreak crises. A mixed methods triangulation-based approach is used to examine the change in the editing patterns and the response to the uncertainty during new disease outbreak crises on Wikipedia. Quantitative data sources have been utilised to reveal the patterns of editing activities during new disease out- break crises and to establish the reasons behind this change. Qualitative data sources have been used to distinguish between the forms and the strategies used to manage the uncertainty during new disease outbreak crises. The triangulation and the integration of results revealed Wikipedia as a social machine. This is further discussed while high- lighting the importance of `co-creation' on Wikipedia during new disease outbreak crises. This thesis presents a thematic framework that depicts various forms of uncertainty and the strategies used to manage this uncertainty on Wikipedia during crises. Therefore, this thesis provides a conceptual and methodological contribution to the eld of Web Science and has important implications for future research.

Contents

Declaration of Authorship

xiii

Acknowledgements

xv

1 Introduction: Wikipedia, Uncertainty, and Crises

1

1.1 Wikipedia

2

1.2 Wikipedia as a Social Machine

4

1.3 Uncertainty

4

1.4 Uncertainty, Crises, and Disease Outbreaks

5

1.5 Tying It All Together: Wikipedia, Uncertainty, Crises, and Disease Out-

breaks 6

1.6 Outline of This Thesis

6

2 Background: Current Understanding of Wikipedia

9

2.1 Wikipedia Page Views

9

2.2 Wikipedia Page Edits

11

2.2.1 Wikipedia Editors' Characteristics

13

2.3 Wikipedia and Controversies

13

2.4 Summary

15

3 Background: Crises and Crisis Response on the Web and Wikipedia

17

3.1 Crises and the Web

17

3.2 Crises Response and the Web

19

3.3 Crises Response and Wikipedia

21

3.4 Health-Related Content on Wikipedia

22

3.5 Gap in Knowledge

23

3.6 Research Goals and Research Questions

26

3.7 Summary

27

4 Methodology

29

4.1 Case Study Design

29

4.2 Case Study Research and Thematic Analysis

31

4.3 Mixed Methods Approach

32

4.4 Mixed Methods Approach Paradigm

34

4.5 Benets and Challenges of Mixed Methods Approach

35

4.6 Research Questions and Mixed Methods Approach

36

4.7 Summary

37
v viCONTENTS5 The Case Study: Disease Outbreaks and Chronic Diseases Wikipedia

Articles

39

5.1 Dening the Case Study

39

5.2 Sample Wikipedia Articles

40

5.3 Quantitative and Qualitative Data Sources

45

5.4 Research Questions and Analytical Analysis

45

5.5 Quantitative Analysis

46

5.5.1 Outlier Detection

47

5.5.1.1 Z-score

47

5.5.1.2 Tukey's Method

48

5.5.1.3 Local Outlier Factor (LOF)

48

5.5.1.4 Seasonal Hybrid (ESD S-H-ESD)

48

5.5.1.5 Breakout Detection

49

5.5.1.6 ARIMA

49

5.5.2 Ground-Truth Data

50

5.5.3 Accuracy

50

5.5.4 Burstiness

51

5.5.5 Head/Tail Break

53

5.6 Qualitative Analysis

54

5.6.1 Thematic Analysis

54

5.6.1.1 Phase 1: Becoming Familiar with the Data

55

5.6.1.2 Phase 2: Generating Initial Codes

55

5.6.1.3 Phase 3: Searching for Themes

57

5.6.1.4 Phase 4: Reviewing Themes

58

5.6.1.5 Phase 5: Dening and Naming Themes

59

5.6.1.6 Phase 6: Writing-up

60

5.7 Ensuring Rigour and Quality of Methods

62

5.8 Summary

63

6 Results: Dynamics and Deviations in Wikipedia Editing Activities

65

6.1 Wikipedia Edit History

66

6.2 Data Distribution

67

6.3 Assessment of Outlier Detection Methods

69

6.4 Anomalies in Wikipedia Articles

69

6.4.1 New Disease Outbreaks

71

6.4.2 Chronic Diseases

71

6.5 Burstiness

72

6.6 Levels of Burstiness

78

6.7 Summary

84

7 Results: Factors Behind Burstiness in Wikipedia

87

7.1 Classication of Disease Outbreak Burstiness

88

7.2 Disease Outbreaks in the News

89

7.3 Timeline

90

7.4 Bots During New Disease Outbreaks

94

7.5 Bots' Role During New Disease Outbreaks

97

7.6 Summary

102
CONTENTSvii8 Results: Response to Uncertainty in Wikipedia103

8.1 Wikipedia Talk Pages

104

8.2 Types of Uncertainty

105

8.2.1 Scientic Uncertainty

105

8.2.1.1 New Disease Outbreaks

105

8.2.1.2 Chronic Diseases

109

8.2.2 References Uncertainty

114

8.2.2.1 New Disease Outbreaks:

114

8.2.2.2 Chronic Diseases:

115

8.2.3 Con

icting References Uncertainty 117

8.2.3.1 New Disease Outbreaks

118

8.2.3.2 Chronic Diseases

120

8.3 Strategies to Manage Uncertainty

125

8.3.1 Rely on Authoritative Sources

126

8.3.2 Report the Uncertainty in the Article

127

8.3.3 Ignore the Uncertainty

131

8.3.4 Consult Experts for Advice

133

8.3.5 Set Up a Mailing List about Ongoing Research

134

8.4 Summary

135

9 Overall Discussion and Conclusion

137

9.1 Triangulating Quantitative and Qualitative Findings

138

9.1.1 Quantitative Findings

138

9.1.1.1 Model of Burstiness

138

9.1.1.2 Theory of Punctuated Equilibrium

140

9.1.1.3 Humans and Bots Role

140

9.1.2 Qualitative Findings

141

9.1.2.1 Multiple Forms of Uncertainty

141

9.1.2.2 Strategies to Manage Uncertainty

143

9.1.3 Quantitative and Qualitative Findings

144

9.1.3.1 Integration of Quantitative and Qualitative Findings

144

9.1.3.2 Wikipedia as a Social Machine

145

9.1.3.3 Wikipedia as an Evolving and Changing Network

146

9.1.3.4 Learning from a Network on Wikipedia

146

9.2 Thematic Framework: Uncertainty in Social Machines During Crises

147

9.3 Limitations and Future Work

148

9.4 Overall Contribution and Conclusion

149

A Trust on Wikipedia

151

A.1 Trust on Wikipedia

151

A.1.1 Persistence and Editors' Reputations

152

A.1.2 Metadata Properties

152

A.1.3 Citation Quantity

153

B Information Uncertainty Theories

155

B.1 Denition of Information

155
B.1.1 Mathematical Studies on Information Uncertainty 156
viiiCONTENTSB.2 Non-mathematical Studies on Information Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . 158

B.3 Punctuated Equilibrium

162

C Controversy

165

D Uncertainty and Controversy

171

Bibliography

173

List of Figures

1.1 Wikipedia Revision History

3

1.2 Wikipedia Talk Pages

3

25gure.40

4.1 Convergence Model of Triangulation Design

34

5.1 Zika Search Results

41

5.2 Ebola Search Results

42

5.3 MERS Search Results

42

5.4 H7N9 Search Results

42

5.5 Swine In

uenza Search Results 43

5.6 Diabetes Search Results

43

5.7 Obesity Search Results

43

5.8 Cancer Search Results

44

5.9 Asthma Search Results

44

5.10 Cardiovascular Disease Search Results

44

5.11 Archives of Talk Pages in NVivo

55

5.12 Nodes in NVivo

58

5.13 Revised Themes in NVivo

60

5.14 Results of Coding Query in NVivo

61

5.15 Results of Matrix Coding in NVivo

61
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