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ZAMBIA

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3

the capacity to borrow without the central government's backstop, and their outstanding debt (expenditure arrears) is currently captured under the central government. The debt of social security funds is guaranteed by the central government and therefore included. The authorities confirmed that no extrabudgetary funds currently exist with outstanding debt. Limitied data on domestic debt of SOEs suggest the stock is insignificant and is adequately captured through the default SOE shock (2 percent of GDP) in the contingent liability stress test. The authorities have recently started regular collections of SOEs' financial data in an effort to gradually broaden the debt coverage going forward. Public Debt Coverage and the Magnitude of the Contingent Liability Tailored Stress Test Text Table 1. Zambia: Stock of Public and Publicly

Guaranteed (PPG) Debt

(End-2018, billions of U.S. dollars) Sources: Zambian authorities and IMF staff estimates.

Official debt

coverage

DSA debt

coverage

Total PPG debt18.318.9

External PPG debt11.312.6

1. Central government direct external debt

10.010.0

Multi/pluri-laterals1.91.9

o.w. IMF0.10.1 o.w. WB/AfDB1.61.6

Bilaterals3.03.0

Paris Club0.10.1

Non-Paris Club2.92.9

Commercial5.15.1

o.w. Eurobonds3.03.0

2. Central government guaranteed external debt

1.21.2

3. SOE external debt (nonguaranteed)Not included0.6

4. Nonresident holdings of local currency debtTreated as domestic0.7

Domestic PPG debt7.06.3

1. Central government direct domestic debt

7.06.3

Treasury bills1.5481.544

Treasury bonds3.32.7

Others2.12.1

o.w. budget expenditure arrears1.61.6 Memo: nonresident holdings of treasury bills0.0040.004 Memo: nonresident holdings of treasury bonds0.70.7

Memo: total PPG debt to GDP (%)78.180.8

Note: the main differences between the official and DSA debt coverages can be attributed to the treatment of nonresident holdings of local currency government debt and nonguaranteed SOE external debt. These items are highlighted in the table. 9 8 4 3 1 9 4 1 8 3 1 1 8 8 7 71
8 7 1 8 4 3 9 130

projected 4.7% for 2018 to become balanced in 2021, before moving to a projected overall surplus for 2022;

central government debt is expected to decrease from 55.4% of GDP for 2018 to a projected 36.4% of GDP for

2023; central government revenues are expected to increase from a budgeted 17.6% of GDP for 2018 to projected

18.9% of GDP for 2022; and central government expenditures are expected to decrease from a budgeted 23.7%

of GDP for 2018 to a projected 19.0% of GDP for 2022. There can be no assurance that any of the expected,

targeted or projected aggregates as prepared by the IMF will be achieved by Benin, and actual results may be

materially different from such targets and projections.

Public Debt

The table below sets forth the breakdown of public debt as of 31 December of each indicated year and estimates

for 2018:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018
(Est.) (CFAF billions, excluding percentages)

External Debt

Multilateral Creditors ...................... 565.84 699.1 821.4 910.7 958.5 1,021.0 IDA (World Bank) ......................... 264.4 335.5 409.3 473.9 500.3 541.2 AfDB .............................................. 129.4 173.1 199.0 216.4 237.2 244.4 IDB ................................................. 61.5 61.9 66.5 68.7 65.1 72.7 IFAD .............................................. 37.0 39.5 42.5 41.0 37.9 35.7

Others (primarily BADEA and

BIDC) ............................................. 73.5 89.1 104.2 110.8 118.0 127.0 Bilateral Creditors 91.1 161.1 222.1 228.9 208.0 241.7 People's Republic of China ............ 66.4 101.9 147.4 150.6 136.6 166.9

Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic

Development .................................. 0.0 24.4 29.7 32.8 28.7 26.8 AFD ............................................... 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.6 6.3 9.6 Others* ........................................... 20.8 31.6 42.7 44.0 36.5 38.4 Commercial Debt ............................. - - - - 18.1 269.4 RABOBANK ................................ - - - - 18.1 46.3

Re-profiling Programme - - - - - 170.6

Asphaltage Project - - - - - 52.5

Total External Debt.......................... 677.0 860.3 1,043.6 1,139.6 1,184.6 1,532.1 % Nominal GDP ............................... 15.0% 17.9% 21.3% 22.4% 22.1% 26.5%

Domestic Debt

Statutory Overdraft............................. 0 0 0 0 0 0

Banking Debt (including BOAD and

BCEAO) ............................................. 131.6 150.1 222.2 362.1 450.4 321.3 Treasury Bills ..................................... 219.1 312.7 231.7 161.5 159.4 160.1 Treasury Bonds .................................. 116.3 138.8 583.1 849.8 1,133.1 1,267.0 Total Domestic Debt ......................... 467.0 601.5 1,036.9 1,373.4 1,742.8 1,748.5 % Nominal GDP ............................... 10.3% 12.5% 21.1% 27.0% 32.5% 30.2%

Source: CAA

(*) Includes the debt to India's EXIMBANK (CFAF 15.2 billion), the Abu Dhabi Development Fund (CFAF 2.3

billion) and the Saudi Fund for Development (CFAF 20.9 billion).

NB: The debt to the IMF is managed by the BCEAO and the debt service is carried out by the debit mechanism

of the Public Treasury's account opened in the books of the BCEAO. See "Relation with Creditors — Multilateral

Debt — International Monetary Fund" below.

The table below sets forth Benin's public debt service for external and domestic debt, excluding debt to the IMF,

for the periods indicated:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2018
(Est.) (CFAF billions)

External

Principal ....................................... 24.2 22.0 23.3 24.3 51.8 28.78 Interest ......................................... 7.6 8.2 10.3 11.9 18.0 17.15 Total ............................................. 31.8 30.2 33.7 36.2 69.8 45.93

Domestic

Principal ....................................... 276.0 304.6 263.0 212.2 293.0 560.73 Interest ......................................... 26.6 22.5 30.5 51.4 88.4 111.35 Total ............................................. 302.6 327.1 293.6 263.6 381.4 672.09 Total ............................................ 334.4 357.3 327.2 299.8 451.2 718.01 131

Source: CAA

The ratio of public debt service to Government revenues increased from 28.1% in 2017 to 34.1% in 2018 after

reaching levels of 16.7%, 15.2% and 20.3% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

The table below sets forth debt repayment profiles over the next ten years (IMF debt excluded), based on

outstanding amounts at 31 December 2018. These profiles do not take into account cash flows relating to future

domestic and external financing.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

(CFAF billions)

External

Principal ............. 34.0 53.9 70.2 75.7 78.6 80.6 81.8 81.9 82.2 81.3 74.2 Interest ............... 23.2 22.7 21.5 19.9 18.2 16.6 14.8 13.1 11.4 9.8 8.2 Total ................... 57.2 76.6 91.8 95.6 96.8 97.2 96.6 95.0 93.7 91.1 82.4

Domestic

Principal ............. 386.2 328.7 408.3 248.4 142.2 67.1 44.6 34.2 36.1 7.2 5.2 Interest ............... 96.6 82.5 62.0 36.8 21.2 12.3 8.1 5.4 3.3 1.2 1 Total ................... 482.8 411.2 470.4 285.2 163.4 79.4 52.7 39.6 39.4 8.4 6.2 Total .................. 540.0 487.8 562.2 380.8 260.2 176.6 149.3 134.6 133.1 99.5 88.6

Source: CAA

The table below sets forth the maturity profile of external and domestic debt as of 31 December 2018:

Less than 1 year 1 to 5 years 5 to 10 years 10+ years External Debt ....................... 0.0% 0.9% 5.2% 93.9% Domestic Debt ..................... 12.3% 64.7% 17.6% 5.4% Total Debt ............................ 6.6% 34.9% 11.8% 46.7%

Source: CAA

The average maturity of the total public debt portfolio at the end of 2018 was 7.6 years; that of external debt was

13.0 years and that of domestic debt was 3.0 years. The average interest rate of the total debt portfolio was 4.0%

at the end of 2018, of which 1.5% for external debt and 6.1% for domestic debt.

The table below sets forth total public debt by currency as of 31 December of each of the indicated years:

Currency (in

CFAF billions) 2013 % 2014 % 2015 % 2016 % 2017 % 2018 (e) %

US$ ....................

60.7 5.3 77.4 5.3 82.2 3.9 84.9 3.4 55.5 1.9 61.9 1.9

EUR ....................

26.5 2.3 33.2 2.3 36.1 1.7 35.2 1.4 58.1 2.0 399.9 12.2

CFAF ..................

467.0 40.8 601.5 41.1 1,036.9 49.8 1,373.4 54.7 1,742.8 59.5 1,748.5 53.3

Saudi Riyal

(AED) ................

1.2 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.4 0.1 3.5 0.1 2.6 0.1 2.3 0.1

Kuwaiti Dinar

(KWD) ...............

20.0 1.8 24.4 1.7 29.7 1.4 32.8 1.3 28.7 1.0 26.8 0.8

Riyal saoudien

(SAR) .................

1.3 0.1 5.0 0.3 14.7 0.7 14.7 0.6 18.4 0.6 20.9 0.6

Renminbi Yuan

(RMBY) .............

59.1 5.2 93.5 6.4 144.7 7.0 150.6 6.0 136.6 4.7 166.9 5.1

Special Drawing

Rights (SDR).....

508.1 44.4 624.8 42.7 733.9 35.3 818.1 32.6 884.8 30.2 853.4 26.0

Total ................... 1,144.0 100.0 1,461.8 100.0 2,080.5 100.0 2,513.1 100.0 2,927.4 100.0 3,280.6 100.0

Source: CAA

Public debt is primarily denominated in CFAF for 53.3% of total public debt as of 31 December 2018, compared

to 12.7% of total public debt denominated in US dollars and 20.2% in euros as of such date. Debt in US dollars

is primarily owed to the BIDC and the BADEA and represents 27.3% of external debt and 12.7% of total public

debt.

The table below lists Benin's issuances of securities outstanding as of 31 December 2018. These securities include

public offerings, fungible treasury bonds (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor) and fungible treasury bills (Bons

Assimilables du Trésor).

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