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Standard Operation Procedure - Weather Forecasting and Warning

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Standard Operation Procedure

Weather Forecasting and Warning

2021

India Meteorological Department

Ministry of Earth Sciences

Government of India

Standard Operation Procedure-Weather Forecasting and Warning

A publication of :

India Meteorological Department

Ministry of Earth sciences

Government of India

Mausam Bhawan

Lodi Road

New Delhi - 110 003

March, 20

21

When citing these

guidelines the following citation should be used : Standard Operation Procedure-Weather Forecasting and Warning

Published by India Meteorological Department,

Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India,

Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003

MISSION

To effectively forecast High Impact Weather events to strengthen Disaster Preparedness Mechanism (i)

Contents

Page No.

Contents................................................................................................................................................. i-viii

Foreward................................................................................................................................................ ix

Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................ x

Chapter 1 : General Forecasting Organisation of India Meteorological Department 1-28

1.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 1

1.2. Current Forecasting Organization................................................................................................................... 1

1.2.1. General Forecast...................................................................................................................................... 2

1.2.2. Marine Forecast....................................................................................................................................... 2

1.2.3. Cyclone Warning...................................................................................................................................... 3

1.2.4. Agrometeorological Services.................................................................................................................. 4

1.2.5. Flood Meteorological Offices....................................................................................................... 4

1.2.6. Nowcast Services..................................................................................................................................... 4

1.2.7. Mountain Meteorological Services....................................................................................................... 4

1.2.8. Forecast Services for Sectorial Applications........................................................................................ 4

1.3. Revision of SOP.................................................................................................................................................. 4

1.4. Responsibility of Forecasting Centres............................................................................................................ 5

1.4.1. National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC)................................................................................... 5

1.4.2. Regional Weather Forecasting Centre (RWFC).................................................................................... 6

1.4.3. State Weather Forecasting Centre (SWFC).......................................................................................... 6

1.4.4. Weather Central (WC), Pune.................................................................................................................. 6

1.5. Forecast scheme................................................................................................................................................. 7

1.6. Forecast Generation.......................................................................................................................................... 8

1.7. Terminology used in Forecasts........................................................................................................................ 9

1.7.1. Spatial distribution of Rainfall................................................................................................................ 9

1.7.2. Intensity of 24 hour accumulated rainfall............................................................................................ 9

1.7.3. Intensity of 24 hours accumulated snowfall........................................................................................ 10

1.7.4. Probability of occurrence of weather event........................................................................................ 10

1.7.5. Description of temperature departure from normal......................................................................... 11

1.7.6. Description of temperature tendency.................................................................................................. 11

1.7.7. Symbols for Severe Weather representation...................................................................................... 11

1.7.8. Color Code for Weather Warning.......................................................................................................... 12

1.8. District Level Forecasts..................................................................................................................................... 13

1.9. City/Local Forecast............................................................................................................................................ 14

1.10. Forecasting Organizational Structure............................................................................................................. 15

1.10.1. National Level........................................................................................................................................ 16

1.10.2. Weather Central, IMD, Pune................................................................................................................ 16

1.10.3. State Level /Regional Level.................................................................................................................. 17

1.10.4. Meteorological Offices.......................................................................................................................... 18

1.11. Mandate of Different Forecasting Centres.................................................................................................... 18

1.11.1. NWFC...................................................................................................................................................... 18

1.11.2. Weather Central, Pune......................................................................................................................... 20

1.11.3. RWFC/SWFC........................................................................................................................................... 20

1.11.4. Meteorological Offices (Observatories) ............................................................................................ 22

Appendix.............................................................................................................................................................. 23

Chapter 2 : Satellite application in Weather Forecasting 29-54

2.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 29

2.1.1. INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite........................................................................................................................ 29

2.1.2. Scatsat-1 Satellite.................................................................................................................................... 33

2.1.3. EUMETCast............................................................................................................................................... 34

2.1.3.1. METEOSAT-8 Satellite................................................................................................................. 34

2.1.3.2. Himawari Satellite....................................................................................................................... 34

2.1.4. GNSS.......................................................................................................................................................... 35

2.1.5. Visualization of surface Lighting network Data over satellite images.......................................... 35

(ii)

2.2. Cloud Imageries.................................................................................................................................................. 36

2.2.1. Cloud Imagery of INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR IMAGER............................................................................ 36

2.2.2. Imager Products from INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite......................................................................... 45

2.2.3. Sounder Products.................................................................................................................................... 47

2.2.4. Dissemination........................................................................................................................................... 49

2.2.5. Real-time Analysis of Product and Information Dissemination (RAPID)...................................... 51

2.2.6. METEOSAT SEVIRI (spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager) located at 41.5°E

Meteosat 8- Channel Imageries..................................................................................................

52

2.2.7. GNSS.......................................................................................................................................................... 53

Chapter 3 : DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS & ITS APPLICATION 55-78

3.1. Radar network in India Meteorological Department........................................................................... 55

3.2. Operational scan strategies and radar data flow......................................................................................... 56

3.2.1. Operational scan strategy....................................................................................................................... 56

3.2.2. Doppler Weather Data............................................................................................................................ 56

3.2.3. Sharing of Doppler Weather Radar Data.............................................................................................. 56

3.2.4. Data Flow.................................................................................................................................................. 56

3.2.5. Networking, Power and other associated equipment................................................................. 57

3.3. Radar Operational details................................................................................................................................ 57

3.4. Basics of weather radar products & its interpretation............................................................................... 58

3.4.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 58

3.4.2. Interpretation of Basic Radar Images................................................................................................... 58

3.4.3. Types of base data................................................................................................................................... 59

3.5. IMD Doppler Weather Radar Products Colour Scales.......................................................................... 64

3.6. Meteorological Products Displayed on IMD Website.......................................................................... 65

3.6.1. PPI-Z product............................................................................................................................................ 65

3.6.2. Planned Position Indicator (PPI-V) ....................................................................................................... 66

3.6.3. MAX-Z (Maximum Reflectivity) Product....................................................................................... 67

3.6.4. Volume Velocity Processing (VVP-2) wind profile........................................................................ 68

3.6.5. Surface Rainfall Intensity (SRI) .............................................................................................................. 69

3.6.6. Precipitation Accumulation (PAC) ........................................................................................................ 70

3.7. GIS Products........................................................................................................................................................ 70

3.7.1. Integrated Display of Weather and Thunderstorm Warnings...................................................... 70

3.7.2. All India Mosaic Product......................................................................................................................... 72

3.8. Guidance for Bulletins from DWR Stations................................................................................................... 72

Annexures............................................................................................................................................................ 74

Chapter 4 : Public Weather Services 79-91

4.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 79

4.2. Requirement for Revision of SOP.................................................................................................................... 79

4.3. Major Objectives of PWS.................................................................................................................................. 80

4.4. Major Stake holders.......................................................................................................................................... 80

4.5. Main Products/Activities under PWS System............................................................................................... 80

4.6. Functioning of PWS........................................................................................................................................... 82

4.6.1. Homogeneity in the contents of the Forecast and Warnings...................................................... 83

4.6.2. Mode of Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings under PWS....................................................... 83

4.7. Requirements for Efficient PWS...................................................................................................................... 84

4.8. New Initiatives in PWS...................................................................................................................................... 85

4.8.1. Implementation of Impact based forecast........................................................................................... 86

4.8.2. Introduction of Common Alert Protocol in Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings.................... 86

4.8.3. Measures to improve the Outreach...................................................................................................... 87

4.8.4. Provision of Sector Specific Services............................................................................................ 88

Appendix.............................................................................................................................................................. 89

Chapter 5 : Heavy Rainfall Warning Services 92-135

5.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 92

5.2. Organisation and Area of responsibility........................................................................................................ 94

5.2.1. Classification of Heavy Rainfall.............................................................................................................. 94

(iii)

5.3. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall and Cloud Burst (CB) ................................................................................... 96

5.3.1. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall................................................................................................................ 96

5.3.2. Climatology of Cloud Burst (CB) ........................................................................................................... 96

5.4. Implementation of IBF and Risk based warning for Heavy rainfall event........................................... 98

5.5. Observation, Monitoring and Product generation of Heavy rainfall events....................................... 99

5.5.1. Rainfall products...................................................................................................................................... 99

5.6. Forecasting Techniques of Heavy rainfall...................................................................................................... 102

5.6.1. Diagnostic Method.................................................................................................................................. 102

5.6.2. Based on NWP Models............................................................................................................................ 102

5.7. SOP of Heavy rainfall Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning system.................................................. 107

5.7.1. Steps for monitoring of Heavy rainfall................................................................................................. 108

5.7.2. Heavy Rainfall Forecast Techniques...................................................................................................... 108

5.7.3. Analysis and Forecasting......................................................................................................................... 109

5.7.4. Decision making process......................................................................................................................... 109

5.7.5. Time line for analysis, forecast and dissemination...................................................................... 110

5.7.6. Forecast/warning services...................................................................................................................... 110

5.7.6.1. Directory/List of Warnees.......................................................................................................... 110

5.7.7. HRW Products.......................................................................................................................................... 110

5.7.7.1. Text of heavy rainfall warning in color code tabular form................................................ 110

5.7.7.2. In graphical form of Multi-hazard colour code maps...................................................... 111

5.7.8. SOP of Local Heavy rainfall forecast and Urban heavy Rainfall Monitoring and warning

111

5.7.8.1. SOP on Location specific heavy rainfall forecast- A a consensus approach of all

NWP model products and other checklist.................................................................

111

5.7.8.2. Objective of present SOP for issuing city/local forecast of heavy rainfall................. 111

5.7.8.3. Decision Making Process for Local heavy rainfall Forecast......................................... 114

5.7.8.4. Decision making & preparation of final forecast........................................................ 115

5.7.8.5 Meteograms of Location............................................................................................ 115

5.7.9. SOP of Heavy rainfall- Impact Based Forecast(IBF) and risk based warning................................ 116

5.7.9.1. What is IBF-Heavy rainfall................................................................................................... 116

5.7.9.2. Stages of IBF-Heavy rainfalldevelopment and implementation in IMD..................... 117

5.7.9.3. Stages of implementation of IBF................................................................................ 118

5.7.9.4. SOP on IBFand Risk based warning of Heavy Rainfall Warning.................................. 120

5.7.9.5. SOP IBF and Risk based warnings for city, District and Met Sub-Division.................. 120

5.7.9.6. Decision making on IBF and warning......................................................................... 121

5.7.9.7. Real time Customized Heavy rainfall monitoring and IBF system operational over

Mumbai and Chennai.........................................................................................................

121

5.7.9.8. Heavy rainfall impact-Flood inundation forecast from FFGS..................................... 123

5.8. Forecast and Warning dissemination of Heavy rainfall....................................................................... 125

Annexures........................................................................................................................................................... 126

Chapter 6 : Thunderstorm Warning Services 136-155

6.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................................... 136

6.2. Objective.......................................................................................................................................................... 139

6.3. Criteria of thunderstorm and associated warning..................................................................................... 140

6.3.1. Thunderstorm warnings and colour codes for warnings............................................................. 140

6.3.2. Duststorms warning.............................................................................................................................. 140

6.3.3. Lightning warning................................................................................................................................... 140

6.4.

Favourable conditions for thunderstorm occurrence.......................................................................... 140

6.4.1. Synoptic conditions................................................................................................................................ 141

6.4.2. Thermodynamic conditions.......................................................................................................... 141

6.4.3. Dynamic conditions...................................................................................................................... 141

6.4.4. Thermo-dynamical indices........................................................................................................... 141

6.4.5.1. Sample check list for thunderstorm forecasting Products................................................ 142

6.4.5.2. Dust-storm........................................................................................................................ 142

6.5. Needed Inputs (data products and their availability)................................................................................. 143

(iv)

6.6. Organizations and their responsibilities............................................................................................... 144

6.6.1. NWP Division................................................................................................................................ 145

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