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This report was produced by Nathan Associates Inc. for review by the United States Agency for

International Development (USAID).

July 30, 2013

CONTRACT NO. AID-613-C-11-00001

This report was produced by Nathan Associates Inc. for review by the United States Agency for

International Development (USAID).

January 30, 2014

CONTRACT NO. AID-613-C-11-00001

Program Title: USAID Strategic Economic Research & Analysis Zimbabwe (SERA)

Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID/Zimbabwe

Contract Number: AID-613-C-11-00001

Contractor: Nathan Associates Inc.

Date of Publication: January 30, 2015

Author: Daniel B. Ndlela, SERA Chief of Party

and Emmanuella Matorofa, SERA M&E/Training Coordinator

DISCLAIMER

This document is made possible by the support of the American people through USAID. Its contents are the sole

responsibility of the author or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.

ACRONYM LIST ....................................................................................................................................................... i

SERA HIGHLIGHTS PROGRAM QUARTER 13 ......................................................................................................... 1

1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 3

2. MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES .......................................................................................... 4

Management and Administration of Operations ...................................................................................................... 4

Reports ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Technical Management ............................................................................................................................................. 5

3. TECHNICAL SERVICES: ASSISTANCE TO ZEPARU ............................................................................................. 5

Research and Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 6

Training Parliamentarians ......................................................................................................................................... 8

Training of Economists (short-term) .......................................................................................................................... 8

Training of Economists (long-term) ......................................................................................................................... 10

4. TECHNICAL SERVICES: ASSISTANCE TO OTHER PARTIES ............................................................................... 12

Mining Revenue Transparency ................................................................................................................................ 12

Starting a Business .................................................................................................................................................. 12

Formalizing Gold Artisanal Mining in Zimbabwe .................................................................................................... 12

Results Based Budgeting ......................................................................................................................................... 12

Transactional Corruption in Business Survey ........................................................................................................... 13

5. TECHNICAL SERVICES: ASSISTANCE TO ZIMSTAT .......................................................................................... 13

Support for the Survey of Services (SS): ................................................................................................................... 14

Support for ZIMSTAT Website Development: .......................................................................................................... 14

6. CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES ............................................................................................................................... 14

7. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE WORK PLAN ...................................................................................................... 16

8. SERA PROGRAM CHALLENGES ..................................................................................................................... 17

9. PLANNING FOR THE NEXT QUARTER ........................................................................................................... 18

10. PERFOMANCE MONITORING ................................................................................................................... 19

ANNEX 1. Implementation of Y4 Work Plan Status at end of Quarter 13 * .......................................................... 1

ANNEX 2: Performance Monitoring Indicators ....................................................................................................... 1

i

ACRONYM LIST

ACBF African Capacity Building Foundation

AfDB African Development Bank

CBR Central Business Register

CIPE Center for International Private Enterprise

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa

COMZ Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe

COP Chief of Party

COTR/COR

CSO Civil Society Organisation

CZI Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries

DFID Department for International Development

DG Director General

EAC East African Community

ED Executive Director

ESAMI Eastern and Southern African Management Institute

GOZ Government of Zimbabwe

ILO International Labour Organisation

IMF International Monetary Fund

IPEC Insurance and Pensions Commission

LEDRIZ Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MEFMI Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute

MIC Ministry of Industry and Commerce

MOFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development

NIPC National Incomes and Price Commission

NMMU Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University

PICES Poverty, Income and Consumption Expenditure survey

PFM Public Finance Management

QPR Quarterly Performance Report

RA Resident Advisor

RBZ Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe

SADC Southern African Development Community

SERA Strategic Economic Research and Analysis

SOW Scope of Work

SS Survey of Services

STTA Short-Term Technical Assistance

TFTA Tripartite Free Trade Area

ii TIPS Trade and Industry Policy Studies UNDP United Nations Development Program UNICEF

UP University of Pretoria

USAID United States Agency for International Development

UZ University of Zimbabwe

VAT Value Added Tax

WB World Bank

ZELA Zimbabwe Environment and Law Association

ZEPARU Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Unit

ZIA Zimbabwe Investment Authority

ZIMACP Zimbabwe Agricultural Competitiveness Program

ZIMRA Zimbabwe Revenue Authority

ZIMSTAT Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency

ZNCC Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce

1

SERA HIGHLIGHTS PROGRAM QUARTER 13

Assistance to ZEPARU

Policy research: After a long delay due to the Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare not agreeing on a

date for the validation workshop, the SERA-funded outsourced study entitled The Nexus between Growth, Employment and Poverty in Zimbabwe: The Economics of Employment Creation was presented at a stakeholder validation workshop during Q13. However two other policy studies that were expected to be presented at stakeholder workshops: -SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Ar were not presented during the quarter under review. However,

indications from MIC are that the latter study will be presented at a validation workshop early in Q14.

Training: SERA supported 6 economists to attend three regional short-courses offered by MEFMI in,

Malawi, Namibia and Rwanda.

During the course of Q13, 11 SERA-funded ZEPARU bursary recipients in the part-time M.Sc. Economics program continued studies at the University of Zimbabwe (UZ) of whom 7 are male and 4 are female.

Three Ph.D. students continued their studies in two South African universities, one at the University of

Pretoria (UP) and two at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU).

Assistance to ZIMSTAT

Following the completion of Central Business Register (CBR) Inquiry Report - 2013, and its review by SERA, ZIMSTAT proceeded with Phase 1 of the Survey of Services (SS) implementation, and the CBR re- canvas. Key SERA financial support is scheduled for Phase 2 of the data collection, as well as data processing. blueprint developed this year. In addition, SERA continued to coordinate with the World Bank and

UNICEF to facilitate support to ZIMSTAT for the provision of and training on their respective website

modules, for micro-data/report hosting and data visualization, to be integrated into the new website.

Assistance to other partners

The research commissioned during Q13 focused on the following areas: an

inventory of the different business licences that exist and what they are for; identify duplication and

questioning the need of each particular licence or set of licences, and the opportunities for harmonising

licences and elimination of licences/permits where there is no need or there is duplication. The study

entitled -Through: Starting A Business in Zimbabwe was undertaken and completed during the quarter under review, though its validation workshop could only be undertaken during early Q14.

CIPE Corruption Survey: SERA, with the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), continued to

coordinate with the CZI and ZNCC to initiate a survey of 400 Zimbabwean business owners in the cities

of Harare and Bulawayo. The survey will assess their experience in conducting business with a focus on

the issues of transactional corruption. The activity will raise awareness and provide stakeholders in

-based research and material with which to advocate for reforms. 2 High Frequency Phone Survey: SERA coordinated with the World Bank in advance of initiating a high frequency economic and social information survey using mobile phones. The activity aims to collect regular information on living standards in Zimbabwe from a nationally representative sample. The survey methodology, developed by the World Bank to collect reliable household-level data at modest 3

1. INTRODUCTION

The USAID Strategic Economic Research and Analysis Zimbabwe (SERA) Program contract took effect on October 1, 2011, with Nathan Associates Inc. as the prime implementing

partner, for a performance period of four years. USAID developed the SERA Program in partnership with

the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) with three Strategic Objectives, which may be summarized as follows:

1. Improved economic environment for inclusive growth through evidence-based policy analysis

and research.

2. Strengthened capacity for policy development institutions.

3. Improved economic data for use by researchers, policy makers, and other stakeholders.

To achieve these objectives, the program is structured to produce four major results:

1. Improved human capacity for evidence-based economic policy analysis and policy

management.

2. Strengthened institutional capacity in Government Departments for analyzing, adapting and

implementing evidence-based economic policy options.

3. Strengthened research institutions providing analytical support to the economic policy

process in response to needs of policy makers.

4. Improved quality, timeliness, and availability of economic data and statistics.

To produce these results the SERA contract specifies the following services and tasks:

1. Management and Administrative Services for assistance to a range of Government of Zimbabwe

ministries, agencies, and civil society organizations, including, among other things, provision of short- and long-term technical advisors, research and training.

2. Technical Services for implementation of a demand-driven agenda to support the twin foci of

policy reform and capacity development, including: a. Assistance to the Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis & Research Unit (ZEPARU) i. Research and Analysis ii. Parliamentarian Training iii. Training of Economists (short-term and long-term) iv. Workshops (research dissemination and policy dialogue events). b. Assistance to ZIMSTAT In essence, our mandate has been to deliver demand-driven support to strengthen human and

institutional capacity for partner organizations; provide evidence-based research to the government in

areas of vital policy concern; rebuild the statistical foundations for economic studies and policy management; and create platforms for research dissemination and public discussion of research

findings, as a bridge from technical analysis to effective reform. Nathan has been pursuing these aims

through the provision of technical and financial support to ZEPARU and ZIMSTAT as our principal partner

organizations. A major development during the quarter under review has been the expansion of the program to cover new partners, namely: 4 indicators, PACT, a jointly Formalizing Artisanal Gold Mining and Trading in Zimbabweand continuation of our work with COMZ and ZELA on mineral revenue transparency . The present Quarterly Progress Report (QPR) covers SERA Program Quarter 13, October-December,

2014. The report discusses progress on each of the Services and Tasks cited above, challenges faced, and

plans for the next quarter. Annex 1 provides the latest update of the Performance Monitoring Indicators

from our revised Monitoring and Evaluation Plan, as approved by USAID in October 2014.

2. MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES

For this first program component, Nathan activity during the reporting period focused on management and administration of operations, and fulfillment of reporting requirements.

Management and Administration of Operations

Management and administration of SERA Program operations continued to proceed smoothly during the quarter under review. Recurrent tasks included maintenance of accounts and records, timely payment of wages and payroll, taxes, management of our equipment inventory, and ensuring compliance with USAID regulations on procurements and activities. Nathan headquarters continued to provide efficient

backstopping in the areas of contract administration, recruitment of consultants, financial management,

and reporting. Maintaining full and open communications with USAID/Zimbabwe is a critical and on-going element of our field operation. The SERA Chief of Party (COP) continued to hold regular weekly meetings with aspects of program implementation. The Senior SERA Program advisor Ashok Chakravarti continued to actively participate in these weekly meetings.

The management and administration of all programmatic activities is mainly done in collaboration with

our primary partner organizations, ZEPARU and ZIMSTAT and other partners including ZELA, ZIA, COMZ, and progressively ZNCC and CZI have become active participants in our program. Concomitant tasks include developing and supervising STTA assignments, training events, equipment procurements, and workshops or conferences. These activities are captured in technical sections below (see Technical Services sections 3, 4 and 5 for Assistance to ZEPARU, Other Parties, and ZIMSTAT) and the agenda of

activities that are under development for the following quarter (see section 9: Planning for the next

Quarter).

VAT refunds: For the duration of Q13, Nathan Associates did not receive any VAT refunds from the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA). As of Q13 the total refund received covering through February,

2013 is $21,880.77 out of a total claim of $41,984.50 leaving $20,103.73 in refund claims through

December, 2014 outstanding. T

finance office to facilitate this process.

The SERA Program Manager returned early from maternity leave on a part time basis, putting in about 4

hours a day until the end of Q13.

Reports

During Quarter 13, Nathan Associates complied with all periodic reporting requirements, including submission of the quarterly financial and accrual reports. We also submitted periodic weekly on program highlights as warranted by activities. 5

Technical Management

The COP continued to manage the program during Q13 with continued support from the Senior Advisor, Ashok Chakravarti. Professor Chakravarti has continued to take charge of a number of ongoing and new work- backstopping the Consultancy Team. His other ongoing areas of concentration include supported the consultant on Zimbabwe Investment Authority (ZIA) Start a study which was commissioned and completed during the quarter under review.

originally scheduled towards the end of the quarter was postponed to early Q14. The follow up study or

phase two on the state and conduct of licensing reforms was also postponed to Q14. Ashok also took

the lead in coordinating the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) business survey activity of

400 Zimbabwean business owners in the cities of Harare and Bulawayo. During the Q13 he mobilized

and canvassed the local counter parties, CZI and ZNCC to work with CIPE and SERA on the survey. His participation has eased pressure on the part of the COP and he will continue to support SERA with approximately 4-6 days per month during the rest of Year 4. pport

to the program. During Q12 Mr. Miller continued to coordinate our US based subcontractors IBI and J.E.

expat consultants for the Extractive Industries Transparency, and the Cost Drivers studies respectively. Peter also took the lead in coordinating work with key elements of ZIMSTAT, supported coordination with the World Bank on the High Frequency Survey, and Program Budgeting activities, and provides oversight of the Home Office project support team. Following the successful implementation of a one week modeling workshop facilitated by Professor Rob Davies and a New Zealand based expat, Dirk van Seventer, the Senior Economic Advisor to ZEPARU, Rob Davies began to request for data on Supply and Use Tables from ZIMSTAT. This data was to be used in the next round of modeling training in which ZEPARU was in the process of constructing a Social

Accounting Matrix for Zimbabwe where the major data gap in this exercise is the lack of Supply and Use

Tables. Supply and Use Tables are normally constructed as part of the process of constructing the national accounts. This process was, however, not completed during Q13 and will therefore be pursued during Q14.

3. TECHNICAL SERVICES: ASSISTANCE TO ZEPARU

This section reviews SERA support to ZEPARU during Quarter 13 under four sub-components: research and analysis; training for Parliamentarians; training of economists (short term and long term); and workshops and other research dissemination events. Professor Rob Davies continued to engage ZIMSTAT for data on Supply and Use Tables to be used in the

next round of modeling training in which ZEPARU was in the process of constructing a Social Accounting

Matrix for Zimbabwe. Supply and Use Tables are normally constructed as part of the process of constructing the national accounts. Nathan Associates continued to provide coordination support to ZEPARU activities. The SERA office position of Training/M&E Coordinator continued to be covered by Ms. Ndari while Ms. Matorofa

continued her maternity leave. This position continued to provide approximately 70% full time support

to ZEPARU-related activities. At the ZEPARU office Mr. Wellington Matsika continued to cover the activities, workshops, and research dissemination events, especially those supported by SERA. 6 During the quarter under review, the COP continued to meet with the Executive Director (ED) of ZEPARU, although at times these meetings became irregular due to the busy schedule of the ED and the COP. The meetings address the agenda for USAID SERA support; implementation arrangements for these activities; a variety of technical issues relating to ZEPARU research and training; monitoring progress with SERA-supported activities; and problem solving as needed.

Research and Analysis

For this sub-component, our attention during the quarter focused on three major activities: SERA- supported ZEPARU studies; expansion of activities to include other partners; continued monitoring of website use and public information on research products.

SERA-supported ZEPARU studies:

Financial Sector studies: During the Q13, SERA was not able to revisit with ZEPARU the planned expansion of the financial sector research under the mentorship of Daniel Makina. SERA changed to

focus its policy research into non-bank areas such as capital markets, insurance and pension sectors.

These sectors complement the banking sector in the provision of liquidity in the economy, and unlike

the latter they provide long-term capital crucial for sustainable development. However, in subsequent

consultations with the MOFED and the Insurance and Pensions Commission (IPEC), show that there is

keen interest by the Authorities for a study on the Pension sector focusing on both the regulatory and

management regime in the pensions industry on one side and the need to quantify and explain the

manner in which the value of the asset classes have changed since dollarization in 2009, especially those

which were invested in property and equities and prescribed assets. By the end of the quarter, the SOW

of work was being finalized pending further consultations with various stakeholders and industry experts. Zimbabwe Country Study on Negotiations for the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA): The TFTA-ZEPARU research team of ZEPARU, and Ministry of Industry and Commerce researchers completed their report under the mentorship of Dr. Robert Kirk. The f-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free of Q12, although ZEPARU and the MIC failed to organize the expected dissemination workshop as per the original terms of conducting the study. Direct consultations with the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, however, revealed that the government negotiators on the Tripartite Free Trade Area used the recommendations of the study. Modernization of Laws and Procedures for Resolving Insolvencies: Following the successful high level seminar of Permanent Secretaries and selected Chief Executive Officers during Q11 to discuss the recommendations of this study and map the way forward, the Minister of Industry & Commerce

announced plans to establish a working group constituted of key stakeholders to develop a priority list

of reforms which were to be forwarded to the cabinet. SERA has kept its doors open and remains ready

to provide input when requested by Government, and will follow up on any avenues for further support.

Cost Drivers Study:

Marcos Arocha, an international consultant and Dumisani Sibanda, a local consultant was submitted for

the dissemination workshop at the end of Q12. During the quarter under review, a MIC official wrote to thank ZEPARU, SERA and the Research Team on the Cost Drivers Analysis Study of the Zimbabwean Economy whose recommendations had already been presented to the Cabinet and adopted in total as announced in the 2015 National Budget, under item 7

986 (National Pricing Structure). The official stated in categorical he research

team and per our road map to the final document, we are supposed to hold a validation workshop and

then come up with the final copies. In the past this has been difficult but now l believe that if you

engage the Secretary on the issue we can get better results as the item has been discussed in cabinet

This was indeed a very positive message and the study recommendations 1) have directly led to and influenced the change of the notorious National Incomes and Price Commission (NIPC) which has now been transformed into a National Competitiveness Commission (a gate keeper policies among other duties); 2) called for the setting up of a Cabinet Standing Committee on the issue (Cost of doing business) which is supposed to report quarterly. A Cabinet Standing Committee on the issue (Cost of doing business) has been set up and is supposed to report quarterly. SERA will continue to push for a formal dissemination workshop for the SERA-supported study. Sustainability study: Since the final report by Stephen Yeo was turned in, approved and submitted to USAID during Q8, ZEPARU has been waiting for their Board to make clear their recommendations on the way forward. During Q10 ZEPARU had started working on prioritizing recommendations for implementation. ZEPARU finally held their strategic workshop during the quarter under review under funding from

Zimbisa, a DFID supported three year project to

support key stakeholders such as government, business membership organizations and the media alongside research institutions and think-tanks to engage in evidence-based dialogue . The new ZEPARU strategic plan covering the period 2015-2019 is being crafted on the backdrop of a changed landscape brought on mainly by the ending of ACBF funding at the end of

2014 and the end of the USAID-SERA funding program at the end of 2015. These developments have led

to ZEPARU developing a new business model that entails balancing policy work, capacity building

activities as well as undertaking consultancy work. These outcomes are in line with recommendations of

the Sustainability Study that SERA provided. ZEPARU will need to continue maintaining its strong relationship with the Government whilst at the same time developing new products and services for

both existing and new markets. It is believed that this thrust, combined with effective and efficient cost

recovery strategies should propel ZEPARU to a level of sustainable financial independence.

Outsourced research

and the Ministry of Labour and Social Services combined with ZEPARU, the ILO and LEDRIZ to host a stakeho

18 November during the quarter under review. The workshop was opened by the Deputy Minister of

Public Service, Labour & Social Welfare, Honourable T. Muzenda. The validation workshop was attended by all the key stakeholders representing Government, Business and Labour. Its key recommendations and way-forward included the following:

1. The adoption of the framework in Chapter 6 of the Report on strategic thrusts and detailed policy

recommendations as a defined way forward; and

2. Constitution of a working group to take forward the outcomes of the workshop.

Website development and Public information

continued to send emails to users announcing ZEPARU products that are placed on the website, but the circulation of her emails did not reach most of the intended

recipients. The SERA COP had to work with ZEPARU outreach officer in checking the circulation list and

8

adding more recipients to the list. It is still hoped that ZEPARU will continue to improve its reach to its

readership.

As part of the dissemination of ZEPARU supported policy research products, SERA was requested to fund

the printing of the outsourced value chain studies, namely: - Agro-Industries Food and Beverages Value Chain Study, - Chemical Industries Value Chain Analysis Study, - Zimbabwe`s Cotton-to-Clothing Value Chain Study, and - Engineering and Metal Industries Value Chain Study. This request was, however, turned down by USAID on grounds that ZEPARU

vehicle should be the website and email circulation of reports by ZEPARU. In subsequent discussion with

ZEPARU the USAID COR agreed to reduce the number of copies printed from 300 to 200.USAID-SERA

Program provided funding for (a) the re-print of 400 additional copies of the Parliamentary Tool-Kit; and

(b) the printing of ZEPARU study on Financial Sector Liberalisation and Crisis: Experience and Lessons for

Zimbabwe. In this case, the quantity of copies to be printed was reduced from 300 to 200.

renewed from April 2014 to March 2015. This activity combines research support, capacity building, and

training.

Training Parliamentarians

The Economic Literacy Handbook for Parliamentarians, prepared with SERA assistance, was printed with

SERA funding during Q11. The issue of sitting fees has continued to hold up the roll-out of training based

on the Handbook; however ZEPARU distributed the Handbook for use by members of Parliament. At the

request of Parliament SERA funded the re-printing of an extra 400 copies of the Tool-Kit for distribution

to members of both Houses of Parliament. The promise by ZEPARU to explore options and avenues to address the issues raised by the Clerk of Parliament as well as seeking funding from other partners to cover the sitting fees has not yielded

results. SERA will have to wait for the two parties, Parliament and ZEPARU to mobilize funding as they

promised. This is when the two parties would then jointly work on the training program.

Training of Economists (short-term)

The ZEPARU Strategic workshop held during Q13 enlisted the following training courses as some of the priority areas for the year 2015:

Macroeconomic and CGE Modelling;

Public Sector Governance and Budgetary Reforms;

Financial Programming & Policy;

Advanced Macroeconomic Policy Analysis and Management; Public Policy Analysis Formulation and Management; Financial Markets Innovations and Opportunities; and

Macroeconomic Strategies for Competitiveness.

9 ZEPARU intends to run at least two in-country short courses per quarter targeted at government economists, RBZ and other clients in the private sector and NGOs. During the course of Q13, SERA together with ZEPARU commenced the planning of a two-week in- country training course on Public Sector Governance & Budgetary Reforms to be held in February 2015.

The training aims to build skills and competencies to effectively and efficiently manage public sector

resources in a more transparent manner that reflects accountability and best practice. The target

audiences for the course are economists in Government institutions, particularly the Ministry of Finance

and Economic Development and its agencies responsible for the stewardship of public resources.

Some of the objectives of the course are:

To build capacity in the management of public resources in Government institutions; To examine and discuss current best practices in public sector financial management reforms; To understand the principles and practice of good governance; To explain the relationship between good governance and development; To define the linkages between the government budget and the economy; To apply analytical tools and techniques such as cost benefit analysis, revenue forecasting and outcome oriented budgeting for decision making; To apply alternative conceptual approaches to resource allocation and budget formulation; and To analyse budget performance and develop a budget reform agenda for the public sector.

External Courses

In addition to planning for in-country short-courses, SERA sponsored economists to attend external short-courses of special value to our partner organizations. Early in Q13 USAID SERA responded to

partner requests for 6 economists to attend 3 regional training opportunities. Going forward SERA will

be focusing primarily on in-country courses to ensure a wider reach for beneficiaries. MEFMI workshop on Data Requirements for Economic Management: System of National Accounts, for three economists, 6-17 October 2014 in Lilongwe, Malawi

The beneficiaries of this course were:

- Mr. Edinos Ndovorwi, Senior Economist, Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of

Zimbabwe

- Mr. Chathebert Mudhunguyo, Senior Economist, Fiscal Policy and Advisory Services Department, Ministry of Finance and Economic Development - Mr. Gamuchirai Chiwunze, Research Fellow, ZEPARU This course was part of a series that MEFMI conducts annually, which covers the System of Nationalquotesdbs_dbs17.pdfusesText_23

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