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Aspen Institute Italia

Aspen Institute Italia

Aspen Institute Italia

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Aspen Institute ItaliaE-RUSSIA FORUMI

NTERNATIONAL

M

EETING

JULY 13, 2021Ministry of Foreign Affairs

and International Cooperation in cooperation with

ECFR - European Council on Foreign Relations

International Project

EU

Russia Forum

July 13, 2021

Organised in cooperation with

RIAC

Russian

International Affairs Council

ECFR

European Council on Foreign Relations

With the support of

Ministero degli Affari Esteri e

della Cooperazione Internazionale ©Questo documento è stato realizzato in esclusiva per Aspen Institute Italia

Le posizioni contenute nel presente report sono espressione esclusivamente degli autori e non rappresentano

necessariamente le posizioni del Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale E

U - Russia Forum

INDICE DEI DOCUMENTI

Introduzione al progetto

I nternational conference

EU-Russia Forum, 13 luglio 2021

-Agenda dei lavori -Sintesi del dibattito -Papers for the conference: Libyan crisis: a call for Europe cohesion", Arturo Varvelli e Lorena Stella Martini “The Russia strategy Europe needs", Mark Leonard Russia in Libya and the Mediterranean. A brief Essay", Andrey Chuprygin Can the “Green" Dialogue Become a Driver for Restoring the Dialogue Between

Russia and the EU?", Elena Alekseenkova

Energy transition and the relationship between Russia and Europe", Natalia

Piskulova

S elezione di articoli sulle tematiche oggetto di studio pubblicati su

Aspenia e Aspenia

Online

Aspeniaonline.it):

Antonella Scott, “L"insostenibile stabilità della Russia", Aspenia 93, maggio 2021 Anna Zafesova, “La fine del consenso", Aspenia 93, maggio 2021 Se rgio Romano Il posto della Russia nella Storia", Aspenia 93, maggio 2021 I van Nechepurenko, “Una exit strategy da Putin? Ci vorrà tempo", Aspenia 93 m aggio 2021
M arta Ottaviani, “ Russia e Turchia, un matrimonio di interesse", Aspenia 93 m aggio 2021
C arlo Jean, “L"ipoteca russa sul futuro dell"Artico", Aspenia 93, maggio 2021 Ivan Nechepurenko, “Man against the machine: Aleksei Navalny, Russian ȱsociety and the Kremlin", Aspenia Online, February 10, 2021 I van Nechepurenko, “Putin-Biden summit: establishing the framework for ȱanother cold war", Aspenia Online, June 28, 2021 Yu val Weber, “Belarus: the slow birth, bright life and quick death of a cynica l s ideshow", Aspenia Online, December 8, 2021 I van Nechepurenko, “Russia-Europe: crisis with no end in sight", Aspenia Online,

November 3, 2021

B runo Cova & Luca Migliorini

Ensuring energy security in a carbon

-free economy", ȱin cooperation with CESI, Aspenia Online, December 21, 2021

EU-Russia Forum

Il progetto bilaterale “EU-Russia Forum" vede la Russia quale interlocutore politico,

economico e strategico per l"Europa e, naturalmente, per l"Italia. Dal punto di vista europeo, il futuro

dell"Eurasia è importante: i paesi europei tendono a dividersi sulla gestione delle relazioni fra il

Vecchio Continente e il vasto spazio euro-asiatico alle frontiere orientali. Il rischio è che, da partner

potenziali, Europa e Russia diventino rivali diffidenti.

La storia e la geografia ci lasciano in realtà

un"eredità di stretti contatti e profondi legami tra l'Unione Europea e la Russia, che - oltre ad avere un ruolo significativo negli equilibri europei e in chiave globale - esprime un potenziale economico,

commerciale e scientifico di rilievo. L'UE è attualmente il suo principale partner commerciale e vari

Paesi-membri hanno coltivato rapporti mutuamente vantaggiosi soprattutto in campo energetico. Inoltre, i Paesi europei condividono con la Russia una serie di interessi diretti in Medio Oriente e forti legami di interdipendenza con la Cina. Tuttavia, esistono vari motivi per cui il dialogo strategico Europa/Russia resta piuttosto fragile. Nonostante le politiche sanzionatorie, i rapporti commerciali tra Unione Europea e Federazione Russa continuano a mantenere una certa importanza e potrebbero essere rafforzati.

Dunque, il progetto

si è concentrato su una serie di temi chiave e sulle prospettive di una futura cooperazione nei settori strategici e di reciproco interesse.

L"Italia ha

regolarmente aderito alle sanzioni europee e atlantiche, ma sempre assumendo posizioni piuttosto flessibili sul piano politico e riconoscendo l"importanza del dialogo nonostante le serie difficoltà poste da alcune scelte geopolitiche russe. Per l"Italia, la Russia è un partner oggettivamente importante, in termini economico-commerciali e di collaborazioni industriali, ma anche come interlocutore su alcune questioni di sicurezza.

I temi al centro del dialogo

, avviato nel 2020, sono stati dedicati all"impatto delle nuove

tecnologie sulla governance globale e regionale, con particolare attenzione ad alcuni settori cruciali

come energia, sicurezza, salute ma anche alle sfide che l"Intelligenza Artificiale pone disegnando nuovi scenari geopolitici e portando alla ricerca di nuovi equilibri tra i diversi attori.

Naturalmente

si è tenuto conto dell"impatto della pandemia a livello globale nei diversi settori economici e nelle

scelte politiche.

Nel progetto di ricerca

del 2021, si sono approfondite alcune questioni di carattere geopolitico attraverso una analisi e riflessione sull"importanza, nelle relazioni tra Europa e Russia, de l nuovo atlantismo, i rapporti con la Cina, il ruolo di Europa e Russia nel Mediterraneo e la transizione energetica. Il progetto ha inoltre voluto avviare un dialogo franco e pragmatico tra Russia ed Europa (e

Italia, di conseguenza) che faciliti lo scambio di idee e proposte di reciproco interesse, in chiave di

governance continentale e potenzialmente globale. Il metodo Aspen prevede l"interazione fra esponenti del business, policy-makers ed esperti attraverso la formazione di un gruppo di lavoro composto da un mix di esperti russi ed europei.

Il progetto è il r

isultato di una collaborazione tra Aspen Institute Italia. RIAC-Russian International Affaris Council e ECFR-European Council on Foreign Relations.

In questo dossier vengono riportati i documenti

che offrono un quadro il più possibile esaustivo di quanto emerso dal dibattito tra i partecipanti, corredato da una selezione di articoli pubblicati sulle riviste Aspenia e Aspenia Online (Aspeniaonline.it T

HE EUROPE-RUSSIA FORUM

Second

meeting

July 13, 2021

2:30 - 5:00pm

in cooperation with

ECFR - European Council on Foreign Relations

A

GENDATUESDAY, JULY 13

2:30- 2:45 pm W

ELCOME ADDRESS

Giulio Tremonti,

Chairman, Aspen Institute Italia

Pasquale Terracciano, Italian Ambassador to Moscow

OPENING OF THE CONFERENCE

Marta Dassù,

Senior Advisor European Affairs, Editor Aspenia, Aspen

Institute Italia, Rome

Andrey Kortunov, Director, Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow 2:45- 3:45 pm S

ESSION I

Russia and Europe beyond

the current political cycle Russia between Eurasia and the West: is the future open? Europe and the Biden Administration: the challenge of new

Atlanticism

Dealing with the China challenge

Energy transition and the relationship between Russia and Europe Chair Philip Stephens, Associate Editor, The Financial Times

Speakers

Charles Grant, Director, Centre for European Reform

Sylvie Kauffmann, Editorial Editor, Le Monde

Dmitry Trenin, Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Dmitry Suslov

, Deputy Director, Higher School of Economics (HSE); Center for Integrated European and International Studies Natalia Piskulova, Professor, Department of International Economic

Relations and Foreign Economic Affairs, MGIMO

Discussion

3:45-4:45pm S

ESSION II

Russia and EU in the Mediterranean: rivalry and cooperation

Russia in Libya and Syria: which long-term plans?

The EU and stabilization of Libya: missing in action or a new start? How to deal with Turkey: Russian and European perspectives

Russian and European perspectives on Iran

Chair

Grigory Lukyanov

, Deputy Department Head, Senior Lecturer, Joint Department with RAS Institute of Oriental Studies,

Faculty of World

Economy and International Affairs, HSE University

Speakers

Sinan Ülgen

Carnegie Europe

Chairman, Steering Committee, Center for

Economics and Foreign Policy Studies

EDAM Nicola Pedde, Director, Institute for Global Studies

Ian Lesser,

Vice President; Executive Director, Brussels

Office,

The German

Marshall Fund of the United States

Andrey Chuprygin

, Senior Lecturer, School of Oriental Studies , Higher

School of Economics (HSE)

Pavel Shlykov

Associate Professor,

Department of History of the Near and

Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University Julia Roknifard, Assistant Professor, University of Nottingham Malaysia;

RIAC expert

D iscussion 4 :45-5:00 pm C

LOSING REMARKS: FUTURE JOINT INITIATIVES

EU-Russia Forum

1

© Document to be used exclusively for Aspen Institute Italia institutional purposesInternational Conference in digital format

EU-Russia Forum

July 13, 2021

Relations between the European Union and Russia have been turbulent lately, and there are currently no signs o f that letting up, if not in terms of specific and limited pragmatic expectations. The two parties agree substantially on the assumption that dialogue is the preferable tack in diplomatic relations, even in the presence of deep differences of opinion and interests. Not even a summit is to be viewed as a reward or concession, yet can be useful as an occasion for frank discussion of the thornier issues. In any case, shared concerns do exist, such as the obvious ones concerning climate change and health measures, or forms of technical and cultural collaboration, and could gradually facilitate greater mutual trust concerning controversial questions. The short term obstacles to more productive bilateral relations are considerable Ȯ starting with respective views on the European framework and the European neighborhood Ȯ but there are medium to long term opportunities that could be seized providing a cert ain creativity is used. Realistically, the immediate goal should be to create the basic conditions for cultivating pragmatic dialogue, leaving the less negotiable aspects to one side. support for the Assad regime; in Libya, on the contrary, it has adopted a pragmatic and of cohesion, however, makes it impossible to address such conceptual tension and actively engage Moscow is seeking possible forms of mediation and conflict resolution. According to some observers, bilateral relations with Russian are complicated by the fact that its economy is under pressure, particularly with the significant decline in the role of fossil energ y sources and the inevitable as sociat ed probl ems. According to this interpretation, Russia does not seem willing to pay the price that rapprochement with ǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȂȱȱs on issues of direct interest to Moscow Ȯ from Ukraine to Belarus and from human rights to cybersecurity Ȯ are not ongoing sanctions are the clearest manifestation of these sharp contrasts, and renewed transatlantic cooperation is pushing the EU in the same direction. ȱ ȱȱȂȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ -sphere less than probable, even in the fut ure, not least du e to the mas sive o ngoing global economic transformation (not only the energy and green transitions) and profound value chain shifts. Nevertheless, there are some opportunities for Euro-Russian relations in the context of the

EU-Russia Forum

2 energy transition, specifically in the hydrogen sector. ǰȱ Ȃȱ ȱ unreceptiveness to Western investments and technologies of recent years has been compensated by a diversification with regard to China and other actors and, overall, the economy has stabilized from the fiscal and monetary point of view as well. perception of itself is as a strategically autonomous global power. That stance is sustainable as long as the international system remains multipolar, and would probably not be if it turned more to a bipolar system strongly dominated by the US and China. In any case, Ȃȱȱȱȱȱs with Europeans would seem to require an EU fully independent of Washington Ȯ a view that does not facilitate a positive evolution in

Euro-Russian relations.

attempt to take advantage of the differing stances of individual EU members. Many signs, ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ ȱȮ often a point of reference for those more receptive to Russia Ȯ ȱǰȱȱȂȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ uncertainty owing to the imminent post-ȱȱȱȱȱȂȱŘŖŘŘȱ presidential elections. China is unanimously considered a systemic problem, both in strategic as well as more cohesion difficult, thus creating some possible opportunities for Moscow. Others predict a strengthening of Western alliances in various formats, leaving the consequent dilemma of Looking specifically at the Greater Mediterranean as an area where European interests converge, the Russian presence in various situations of crisis or relative instability is by now a foregone geopolitical conclusion. Moscow has developed the ability to exert local influence, initially by military means (direct or more often indirect), but also has a certain amount of diplomatic leverage that can no longer be overlooked. One reason for concern in the Mediterranean basin is a deployment of naval forces that runs the risk of incidents along the main shipping lanes. In this regard, it would be useful to activate channels of strategic and operational dialogue aimed at clarifying respective interests and avoiding misunderstandings, ideally with the involvement of the United States. Recent developments in the Mediterranean Ȯ in particular, the EastMed Forum on the offshore drilling of new fossil deposits Ȯ present both risks and opportunities, including a disengagement from the region. The very fact that the project involves Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus signals a possible change, not only economic in nature but also in terms of strategic cooperation. ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȃȱ -known concerns and potential negative effects on the difficult Libyan dilemma.

EU-Russia Forum

3 Yet, precisely the Libyan situation offers some glimmer of hope, confirming that only through stabilization is it possible to gain direct influence on the ground Ȯ a weak point in policies on Libya call for a blend of military and economic factors, even international, inquotesdbs_dbs33.pdfusesText_39

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