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ECONOMIC

AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES

AND OPPORTUNITIES

A Compilation of the United Nations

High-level Advisory Board

on Economic and Social Affairs

COPYRIGHT:

List of Acronyms

AfCFTAAfrican Continental Free Trade Area

AfDBAfrican Development Bank

AIܪ

AREAER

ASEAN

AUAfrican Union

BADEHOGData Bank

BEPSܪ

BRICS CAD CAF CBD CDP

CEOܪ

CEVES

CO2carbon dioxide

COVID-19

CRICܪ

DMC DNA DRM DSA ECLAC EIB

EUEuropean Union

FCL FDI

FLARFund

FSDR G20 GATT GDP GEO-6 GHG GNI GSDR GVCs HLAB

ICRICTTaxation

ICT ICUs

IDܪ

IFFs ILO IMF IPBES IPCC IRP IT LDCs MDGs

MENA+AP

MERCOSUR

MFmaterial footprint indicator

MICs MIT NBER NEPAD

ODAܪ

OECDv PPBES

R/GVCs

RER SDGs SDRs SMEs SSA

UN DESA

UNCTAD

UNDP UNEP UNIDO

UNU-WIDER

US VLEs WTO 2

INTRODUCTION

Liu Zhenmin

CHAPTER I

José Antonio Ocampo

CHAPTER II

CHAPTER III

CHAPTER IV

CHAPTER V

CHAPTER VI

CHAPTER VII

BIOGRAPHIES

470
102
118
140
160
14 34
50

CONTENTS

3

INTRODUCTION

Liu Zhenmin

CHAPTER I

José Antonio Ocampo

CHAPTER II

CHAPTER III

CHAPTER IV

CHAPTER V

CHAPTER VI

CHAPTER VII

BIOGRAPHIES

470
102
118
140
160
14 34
50

CONTENTS

4

Recovering better: An overview of the

compilation of the High-level Advisory

Board on Economic and Social Affairs

by Liu Zhenmin

INTRODUCTION

5

Recovering better: An overview of the

compilation of the High-level Advisory

Board on Economic and Social Affairs

by Liu Zhenmin

INTRODUCTION

6

INTRODUCTION

OUR WORLD IN 2020

Recovering better: economic and social challenges and opportunities

A compilation of the High-level Advisory Board on

Economic and Social Affairs

Liu Zhenmin

1 2

1 ѴķѴѴঞĸѴঞ

2

KEY DETERMINANTS OF PROGRESS

TOWARDS THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

GOALS

8ѴঞķঞѴѴ

Chapter I: Uncertainties surrounding the global

economy and their implications for the global development agenda

ķ José Antonio Ocampo,

Chapter II: Digital challenges for developing

countries

9 ѴѴĺ Ѵķ

Chapter III: Inclusive catch-up: the new structural economics approach

10ঞѴѴŊ

Chapter IV: Sustainable financing for (an owned)

sustainable development: time for Africa to give the driver"s seat to domestic resource mobilization

Chapter V: Decoupling: a key to achieving

Sustainable Development Goals

ķIzabella TeixeiraѴѴŊ

Victor Valido,

11ঞѴ

Chapter VI: Production structures for sustainable

development: learning how to shape them from the bottom up 12

Chapter VII: Equality, democracy and sustainable

development

ķAlicia Bárcena, Ѵ

CONCLUSION

13 14

Uncertainties surrounding the global

economy and their implications for the global development agenda by José Antonio Ocampo

CHAPTER I

15

Uncertainties surrounding the global

economy and their implications for the global development agenda by José Antonio Ocampo

CHAPTER I

16

INTRODUCTION

1 ѴѴľѴѴѴĿķѴѴѴķ

1

Uncertainties surrounding the global economy and

their implications for the global development agenda

José Antonio Ocampo

GLOBAL ECONOMIC TRENDS

2

Table I.1

World GDP growth

1990-2007 2002-20072010-2018 20172018 2019

World3.0%3. 9%2.8%3. 2%3.0%2. 3%

Developed economies2.4%2. 6%1.8%2. 4%2.2%1. 7%

United States3.1%3. 0%2.3%2. 4%2.9%2. 2%

Japan1.3%1. 7%1.0%1. 9%0.8%0. 7%

European Union2.2%2. 5%1.5%2. 6%2.0%1. 4%

Euro area2.1%2. 2%1.3%2. 5%1.9%1. 2%

Other Developed countries2.8%2.9%2.2%2. 6%2.3%1. 7% Economies in transiঞon0.3%7. 9%1.8%2. 2%2.7%1. 9%

Developing economies5.3%7. 0%4.7%4. 5%4.2%3. 4%

Africa3.8%5. 9%2.8%2. 9%2.7%3. 0%

East and South Asia7.2%8. 4%6.1%6. 1%5.7%4. 8%

China10.6%11. 7%7.4%6. 8%6.6%6. 1%

India6.1%7. 9%6.9%7. 4%6.9%5. 4%

Western Asia4.4%6. 6%4.2%2. 6%2.3%1. 0%

La n America and the Caribbean3.2%4.6%1.5%1.2% 0.9%0.1% Least developed countries4.6%7. 4%4.6%4. 5%4.7%4. 9%

Source: UN DESA.

19ѴѴķ

Figure I.1

Research and development expenditureas a percentage of GDP

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%

High income

Upper-middle income

Middle income

Lower-middle income

Low income

North America

Europe

Central and Eastern Europe

East Asia and the Pacic

South and West Asia

Central Asia

La ঞn America and the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

China India

2000 2016

Source: UNESCO.

20ঞķ

3

THE CRISIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

21

Figure I.2

A. Growth of world trade volumes and GDP

B. World monthly exports (1st semester of 2008=100) (CPB Netherlands Bureau) 7.4% 4.8% 3.7% 3.2% 7.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

1950-19741974-19861986-20072007-2019

World export volume World GDP at market prices

60708090

100
110
120
130

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

Volume Value

Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau.ث

22ŌѴѴѴ

4

23ѴѴ

24 Ľķ ѴѴѴ

FINANCIAL VOLATILITY

5 6 6 7 8 7 8 -20.0-10.0

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

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