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The Future of JobsThe Future of Jobs

Employment, Skills and

Workforce Strategy for the

Fourth Industrial Revolution

January 2016

Global Challenge Insight Report

The Future of Jobs

Employment, Skills and

Workforce Strategy for the

Fourth Industrial Revolution

January 2016

Global Challenge Insight Report

©2016 World Economic Forum

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.

REF 010116

TERMS OF USE AND DISCLAIMER

The Future of Jobs Report (herein: "Report") presents information and data that were compiled and/or collected by the World Economic Forum (all information and data referred herein as "Data"). Data in this Report is subject to change without notice. The terms country and nation as used in this report do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. The term covers well-defined, geographically self-contained economic areas that may not be states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. Although the World Economic Forum takes every reasonable step to ensure that the Data thus compiled and/or collected is accurately reflected in this Report, the World Economic Forum, its agents, officers, and employees: (i) provide the Data "as is, as available" and without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement; (ii) make no representations, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the Data contained in this Report or its suitability for any particular purpose; (iii) accept no liability for any use of the said Data or reliance placed on it, in particular, for any interpretation, decisions, or actions based on the Data in this Report. Other parties may have ownership interests in some of the Data contained in this Report. The World Economic Forum in no way represents or warrants that it owns or controls all rights in all Data, and the World Economic Forum will not be liable to users for any claims brought against users by third parties in connection with their use of any Data. The World Economic Forum, its agents, officers, and employees do not endorse or in any respect warrant any third-party products or services by virtue of any Data, material, or content referred to or included in this Report. Users shall not infringe upon the integrity of the Data and in particular shall refrain from any act of alteration of the Data that intentionally affects its nature or accuracy. If the Data is materially transformed by the user, this must be stated explicitly along with the required source citation. For Data compiled by parties other than the World Economic Forum, users must refer to these parties' terms of use, in particular concerning the attribution, distribution, and reproduction of the Data. When Data for which the World Economic Forum is the source (herein "World Economic Forum") is distributed or reproduced, it must appear accurately and be attributed to the World Economic Forum. This source attribution requirement is attached to any use of Data, whether obtained directly from the World Economic

Forum or from a user.

Users who make World Economic Forum Data available to other users through any type of distribution or download environment agree to make reasonable efforts to communicate and promote compliance by their end users with these terms. Users who intend to sell World Economic Forum Data as part of a database or as a standalone product must first obtain the permission from the World Economic Forum (humancapital@weforum.org). v Preface 1 PART 1: PREPARING FOR THE WORKFORCE OF THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL

REVOLUTION

3

Chapter 1: The Future of Jobs and Skills

3

Introduction

5

Drivers of Change

10 Employment Trends

19 Skills Stability

26 Future Workforce Strategy

33 Chapter 2: The Industry Gender Gap

34 The Business Case for Change

36 Gaps in the Female Talent Pipeline

37 Barriers to Change

39 Women and Work in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

40 Approaches to Leveraging Female Talent

43 Endnotes

45 References and Further Reading

49 Appendix A: Report Methodology

57 Appendix B: Industry and Regional Classifications

59 PART 2: INDUSTRY, REGIONAL AND GENDER GAP PROFILES

61 User's Guide: How to Read the Industry, Regional and Gender Gap Profiles

69 List of Industry, Regional and Gender Gap Profiles

71 Industry Profiles

91 Country and Regional Profiles

123 Industry Gender Gap Profiles

143 Acknowledgements

145 Contributors

147 Global Challenge Partners

Contents

The Future of Jobs Report | iii

iv | The Future of Jobs Report Today, we are at the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. Developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and biotechnology, to name just a few, are all building on and amplifying one another. This will lay the foundation for a revolution more comprehensive and all-encompassing than anything we have ever seen. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change. The rise of the sharing economy will allow people to monetize everything from their empty house to their car.

While the impending change holds great promise,

the patterns of consumption, production and employment created by it also pose major challenges requiring proactive adaptation by corporations, governments and individuals. Concurrent to the technological revolution are a set of broader socio-economic, geopolitical and demographic drivers of change, each interacting in multiple directions and intensifying one another. As entire industries adjust, most occupations are undergoing a fundamental transformation. While some jobs are threatened by redundancy and others grow rapidly, existing jobs are also going through a change in the skill sets required to do them. The debate on these transformations is often polarized between those who foresee limitless new opportunities and those that foresee massive dislocation of jobs. In fact, the reality is highly specific to the industry, region and occupation in question as well as the ability of various stakeholders to manage change. The Future of Jobs Report is a first step in becoming specific about the changes at hand. It taps into the knowledge of those who are best placed to observe the dynamics of workforces—Chief Human Resources and Strategy Officers—by asking them what the current shifts mean, specifically for employment, skills and recruitment across industries and geographies. In particular, we have introduced a new measure—skills stability—to quantify the degree of skills disruption within an occupation, a job family or an entire industry. We have also been able to provide an outlook on the gender dynamics of the changes underway, a key element in understanding how the benefits and burdens of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be distributed.

Overall, there is a modestly positive outlook for

employment across most industries, with jobs growth expected in several sectors. However, it is also clear that this need for more talent in certain job categories is accompanied by high skills instability across all job categories. Combined together, net job growth and skills instability result in most businesses currently facing major recruitment challenges and talent shortages, a pattern already evident in the results and set to get worse over the next five years. The question, then, is how business, government and individuals will react to these developments. To prevent a worst-case scenario—technological change accompanied by talent shortages, mass unemployment and growing inequality—reskilling and upskilling of today's workers will be critical. While much has been said about the need for reform in basic education, it is simply not possible to weather the current technological revolution by waiting for the next generation's workforce to become better prepared. Instead it is critical that businesses take an active role in supporting their current workforces through re-training, that individuals take a proactive approach to their own lifelong learning and that governments create the enabling environment, rapidly and creatively, to assist these efforts. In particular, business collaboration within industries to create larger pools of skilled talent will become indispensable, as will multi-sector skilling partnerships that leverage the very same collaborative models that underpin many of the technology-driven business changes underway today. Additionally, better data and planning metrics, such as those in this Report, are critical in helping to anticipate and proactively manage the current transition in labour markets. We are grateful for the leadership of Jeffrey Joerres, Executive Chairman Emeritus, ManpowerGroup and Chair of the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Jobs; Jamie McAuliffe, President and CEO, Education for Employment and Vice-Chair of the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Jobs; J. Frank Brown, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer, General Atlantic LLC and Chair of the Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity and Mara Swan, Executive Vice-President, Global Strategy and Talent,

ManpowerGroup and Vice-Chair of the Global Agenda

Council on Gender Parity.

We would also like to express our appreciation to Till Leopold, Project Lead, Employment, Skills and Human Capital Initiative; Vesselina Ratcheva, Data Analyst, Employment and Gender Initiatives; and Saadia Zahidi, Head of Employment and Gender Initiatives, for their dedication to this Report. We would like to thank Yasmina Bekhouche, Kristin Keveloh, Paulina Padilla Ugarte, Valerie Peyre, Pearl Samandari and Susan Wilkinson for their support of this project at the World Economic Forum. Finally, we welcome the untiring commitment of the Partners of the Global Challenge Initiative on Employment, Skills and Human Capital and the Global Challenge Initiative on

Preface

KLAUS SCHWAB

Founder and Executive Chairman

RICHARD SAMANS

Member of the Managing Board

The Future of Jobs Report | v

Gender Parity, who have each been instrumental in shaping this combined Report of the two Global Challenge Initiatives. The current technological revolution need not become a race between humans and machines but rather an opportunity for work to truly become a channel through which people recognize their full potential. To ensure that we achieve this vision, we must become more specific and much faster in understanding the changes underway and cognizant of our collective responsibility to lead our businesses and communities through this transformative moment. vi | The Future of Jobs Report

Part 1

Preparing for the Workforce

of the Fourth Industrial

Revolution

The Future of Jobs Report | 3

INTRODUCTION

Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape over the coming years. Many of the major drivers of transformation currently affecting global industries are expected to have a significant impact on jobs, ranging from significant job creation to job displacement, and from heightened labour productivity to widening skills gaps. In many industries and countries, the most in-demand occupations or specialties did not exist

10 or even five years ago, and the pace of change is set

to accelerate. By one popular estimate, 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don't yet exist. 1

In such

a rapidly evolving employment landscape, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements, job content and the aggregate effect on employment is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends—and to mitigate undesirable outcomes.

Past waves of technological advancement and

demographic change have led to increased prosperity, productivity and job creation. This does not mean, however, that these transitions were free of risk or difficulty. Anticipating and preparing for the current transition is therefore critical. As a core component of the World Economic Forum's Global Challenge Initiative on Employment, Skills and Human Capital, the Future of Jobs project aims to bring specificity to the upcoming disruptions to the employment and skills landscape in industries and regions—and to stimulate deeper thinking about how business and governments can manage this change. The industry analysis presented in this Report will form the basis of dialogue with industry leaders to address industry-specific talent challenges, while the country and regional analysis presented in this Report will be integrated into national and regional public-private collaborations to promote employment and skills.

The Report"s research framework has been shaped

and developed in collaboration with the Global Agenda Council on the Future of Jobs and the Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity, including leading experts from academia, international organizations, professional service firms and the heads of human resources of major organizations. The employer survey at the heart of this

Report was conducted through the World Economic

Forum's membership and with the particular support of three Employment, Skills and Human Capital Global Challenge Partners: Adecco Group, ManpowerGroup and

Mercer.

This Report seeks to understand the current and

future impact of key disruptions on employment levels, skill sets and recruitment patterns in different industries and countries. It does so by asking the Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs) of today's largest employers to imagine how jobs in their industry will change up to the year 2020— far enough into the future for many of today's expected trends and disruptions to have begun taking hold, yet close enough to consider adaptive action today, rather than merely speculate on future risks and opportunities. While only a minority of the world's global workforce of more than three billion people is directly employed by large and emerging multinational employers, these companies often act as anchors for smaller firms and local entrepreneurship ecosystems. Therefore, in addition to their own significant share of employment, workforce-planning decisions by these firms have the potential to transform local labour markets through indirect employment and by setting the pace for changing skills and occupational requirements. This Report aims to serve as a call to action. While the implications of current disruptions to business models for jobs are far-reaching, even daunting, rapid adjustment to the new reality and its opportunities is possible, provided there is concerted effort by all stakeholders. By evaluating the future labour market from the perspective of some of the world's largest employers we hope to improve the current stock of knowledge around anticipated skills needs, recruitment patterns and occupational requirements.

Furthermore, it is our hope that this knowledge

can incentivize and enhance partnerships between governments, educators, training providers, workers and employers in order to better manage the transformative impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment, skills and education.

Survey and Research Design

The dataset that forms the basis of this Report is the result of an extensive survey of CHROs and other senior talent and strategy executives of leading global employers, representing more than 13 million employees across 9 broad industry sectors in 15 major developed and emerging economies and regional economic areas. Our target pool of respondents comprised, as the primary selection criterion, the 100 largest global employers in each of our target industry sectors (as classified by the World Economic Forum; see Appendix B, Table B1). A total of 371 individual companies from these industries and regions responded to the survey over the first half of 2015, providing us with 1,346 detailed occupation-level data points on mass employment,

Chapter 1:

The Future of Jobs and Skills

4 | The Future of Jobs Report

specialist and newly emerging occupations based in specific geographic locations across these companies' global operations. 2 A quarter of the companies surveyed employ more than

50,000 people globally; another 40% have between 5,000

and 50,000 employees; the remaining third is equally split between employers with 500 to 5,000 staff and high-growth companies with currently up to 500 employees. Nearly half of our respondents identified themselves as the Chief Human Resources Officers (CHROs) for their companies at the global level; another third identified as C-suite or board level representatives of their organizations; and the rest identified as strategy officers or human resources line managers, country directors or functional leads. While the majority of the large employers in our sample have worldwide operations and employee bases, including in several or all of the focus countries of our survey, they are typically headquartered in a more limited number of these countries. To ensure geographical balance, our sample pool included at least 50 companies each from our list of target geographies. We only report country-level findings when we have at least 30 unique data points on local employees in

Figure1A: Sample overview by number of employees

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