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Energy

and Air

Pollution

World Energy Outlook

Special Report

Energy

and Air

Pollution

World Energy Outlook

Special Report

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was - and is - two-fold: to promote energy sec�urity amongst its member

countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative

research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean e�nergy for its 29 member

countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of e�nergy co-operation among

its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equiva�lent to 90 days of its net imports.

The Agency's aims include the following objectives:

Secure member countries' access to reliable and ample supplies of a�ll forms of energy; in particular,

through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of� oil supply disruptions.

Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection

in a global context - particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-ga�s emissions that contribute

to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved ener�gy ef�ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders.

IEA member countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy Japan Korea

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Republic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

The European Commission

also participates in the work of the IEA.

© OECD/IEA, 2016

International Energy Agency

9 rue de la Fédération

75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

www.iea.org

Please note that this publication

is subject to speci�c restrictions that limit its use and distribution.

The terms and conditions are

available online at

Together

SecureSustainable

Foreword 3 Foreword

Around 18 000 people die each day as a result of air pollution. In fact, the number of deaths attributed to air pollution each year ʹ 6.5 million deaths ʹ is, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), much greater than the number from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and road injuries combined. Air pollution also brings major costs to the economy and damage to the environment. Energy production and use is the most important source of air pollution coming from human activity and so, for these reasons, the IEA has ʹ for the first time ʹ undertaken a major study on the role of energy in air pollution. new vision. An IEA that is truly international in its outlook must tackle the issues of greatest concern to developing, as well as developed, countries. No country can claim to have fully overcome the air pollution challenge, and the IEA is uniquely placed to bring decision makers together and provide evidence-based analysis and policy advice. In establishing itself as a global hub for clean and efficient energy, the IEA is seeking to help all countries of the world overcome the negative environmental impacts of energy use. Our energy system contributes vitally to economic and social progress around the world. But there are costly side-effects. Millions of tonnes of energy-related pollutants are released each year, be it the harmful emissions from using traditional biomass for cooking, as is still common practice today for 2.7 billion people; or the emissions from cars and trucks, factories, power plants and other sources. This is not a problem that economies can expect to grow out of as they become wealthier, but one that will endure until concerted transformative action is taken. Fortunately, there are solutions at hand. This is what this WEO Special Report demonstrates. It presents a strategy ʹ in the form of a Clean Air Scenario ʹ in which the energy sector pushes air pollution levels into a steep decline in all countries. The technologies for doing so exist and are in widespread use today. They can be applied at great net economic benefit. Concerted efforts, across areas of responsibility and between nations are required. First and foremost, a more concentrated effort needs to be made to tackle energy poverty in developing countries. Second, steps must be taken to reduce pollutant emissions through post-combustion control technologies. And third, emissions can be avoided entirely, through promoting clean forms of energy around the world. Such actions can help avoid millions of pollution-related deaths. Greenhouse-gas emissions would also be cut and fossil-fuel import bills reduced. To achieve all of this, cumulative investment in energy supply, end-use energy efficiency and pollution controls from now to

2040 needs to be no more that 7% higher than otherwise expected. This can be achieved.

One of the main conclusions of this study is that the energy sector must work closely with a range of stakeholders to tackle air pollution successfully. I am pleased to say that this WEO

Special Report has been conducted in precisely this vein, with the co-operation of many © OECD/IEA, 2016

4 World Energy Outlook 2016 | Special Report emerging countries, research institutions and distinguished experts from around the world

helping to make this groundbreaking study possible. I would like to thank the WEO team at the IEA for their excellent work and Herculean effort. Modern energy is hugely important, but clean air is our most precious resource.

Dr. Fatih Birol

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Acknowledgements 5 Acknowledgements

This report was prepared by the World Energy Outlook (WEO) team in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) in co-operation with several divisions of the IEA. The Director of STO, Kamel Ben Naceur, provided guidance throughout the project. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Head of the WEO Energy Demand Outlook Division. Timur Gül led overall modelling, Chapter 2 and all the country profiles.

Dan Dorner

and Tim Gould, Head of the WEO Energy Supply Outlook Division, co-led Chapters 1 and 3. Principal contributors to the report were: Ali Al-Saffar, Elie Bellevrat, Philippe Benoit, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Pierpaolo Cazzola, Hannah Daly, Olivier Durand- Kristine Petrosyan, Jacob Teter, Johannes Trüby, David Wilkinson and Shuwei Zhang. Other contributors were Zakia Adam, Liwayway Adkins, Carlos Andrade, Ian Cronshaw, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Nathan Frisbee, Vincenzo Franza, Bartosz Jurga, Markus Klingbeil, Atsuhito Kurozumi, Paul Hugues, Rodolfo Lobato, Christophe McGlade, Luis Munuera, ĂǁĞų Olejarnik, Rakyung Park, Andrew Seah, Toshiyuki Shirai, Benjamin Smith and Brent Wanner. Teresa Coon provided essential support.

Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility.

The report benefited from valuable inputs, comments and feedback from the senior management and from several colleagues within the IEA: Paul Simons, Keisuke Sadamori, Rebecca Gaghen, Duncan Millard, Laszlo Varro, Paolo Frankl, Brian Motherway, Simon Bennett, Florian Kitt, Christina Hood, Joerg Husar, Cédric Philibert and Kevin Tu. the final report, particularly Astrid Dumond for production and to Bertrand Sadin for graphics. Debra Justus was the copy-editor. Experts from the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA) were key contributors to the report, particularly Markus Amann, Jens Borken-Kleefeld, Janusz Cofala, Chris Heyes, Gregor Kiesewetter, Zbigniew Klimont, Pallav Purohit, Peter Rafaj,

Robert Sander and Wolfgang Schoepp.

A workshop of international experts was organised by the IEA to gather essential input to this study and was held on 10 March 2016 in Paris. The workshop participants offered valuable insights, feedback and data for this analysis. This work could not have been achieved without the support provided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan; UNEP Clean Air Coalition; ClimateWorks and Toyota. Many experts from outside of the IEA provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and/or reviewed the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Heather Adair-Rohani World Health Organization

Martin Adams European Environment Agency (EEA)

© OECD/IEA, 2016

6 World Energy Outlook 2016 | Special Report Shardul Agrawala OECD

Rosemary Albinson Castrol

Doug Arent National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US

Glynda Bathan Clean Air Asia

Markus Becker General Electric

Anshu Bharadwaj Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP)

Daniel Bongardt GIZ

José Ignacio Botello Martinez REPSOL

Michael Brauer University of British Columbia

Nigel Bruce University of Liverpool

Lilian Busse German Environment Agency (UBA)

Emanuela Colombo Politecnico di Milano

Audrey de Nazelle Imperial College

Hem Dholakia Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India Carlos Dora Department of Public Health and Environment, WHO Jane Olga Ebinger Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL)

Mats Fredriksson International Gas Union (IGU)

David Hawkins Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), US

Kebin He Tsinghua University, China

Michael Holland Econometrics Research and Consulting (EMRC)

Florent Journet-Cuenot Total

Marlis Kees GIZ

Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute (ERI), China

Michael Kelly World LPG Association

Shinichi Kihara Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan Patrick Kinney The Earth Institute, Columbia University

Vincent Kitio UN-habitat

Takayuki Kusajima Toyota Motor Corporation

Johan Kuylenstierna Stockholm Environment Institute at York

Elisa Lanzi OECD

Francisco Laveron Iberdrola

Karine Leger Airparif

Sunday Leonard UNEP Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Magnus Lindgren Swedish Transport Administration

Christine Loh Ministry for the Environment, Hong Kong, China Julio Lumbreras Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Spain Rob Maas National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Netherlands Antonio Mediavilla-Sahagún Secretariat of Environment of Mexico City (SEDEMA)

François-Régis Mouton GasNaturally

Lauri Myllyvirta Greenpeace

Ted Nace CoalSwarm

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Acknowledgements 7

Hermine Nalbandian Sugden IEA Clean Coal Centre

Anthony Nyong African Development Bank (AfDB)

Ari Rabl Ecole des Mines

Mark Radka United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Veerabhadran Ramanathan University of California

Anil Razdan Former Secretary, Ministry of Power, Government of India

Alan Reid Concawe

Teresa Ribera Institute for Sustainable Development and International

Relations (IDDRI)

Matteo Vincenzo Rocco Politecnico di Milano

David Rodgers Global Environment Facility (GEF)

Deger Saygin International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Christoph Schmidl Bioenergy 2020

Jitendra Shah Asian Development Bank

Sumit Sharma Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India

Jeb Stenhouse US Environmental Protection Agency

Jessica Strefler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Brian Sullivan IPIECA

Kuniharu Takemata J-Power

Eddy Van Bouwel ExxonMobil

Thomas Verheye European Commission

Elisabetta Vignati EC Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Qiang Yao Tsinghua University, China

The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:

Laura Cozzi

Head of World Energy Outlook, Energy Demand Outlook Division Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks

International Energy Agency

9, rue de la Fédération

75739 Paris Cedex 15

France

Email: weo@iea.org

More information about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.worldenergyoutlook.org.

© OECD/IEA, 2016

AnnexesCountry

ProfilesCONTENTSTABLE

OF

PART APART BGlobal

Energy

and Air

Pollution

Tr e n d s EAP_2016_ToC_Final.indd 110-06-2016 09:52:51© OECD/IEA, 2016 8 9 10 1 2 3 5 7 4

AnnexesI

ndia

Southeast Asia

AfricaEnergy and air pollution

Outlook for air pollution

Energy action for cleaner air

Me xico

ChinaUnited States

European Union

6 EAP_2016_ToC_Final.indd 210-06-2016 09:52:51© OECD/IEA, 2016

10 World Energy Outlook 2016 | Special Report Foreword 3

Acknowledgements 5

Executive summary 13

Part A: Global Energy and Air Pollution Trends 17

Energy and air pollution 19

Introduction 20

Air pollution: causes, concentrations and effects 25

Causes 25

Concentrations 28

Effects 32

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