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E c o n o m i c &

WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

United Nations

S o c i a l A a i r s

ST/ESA/SER.A/236

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Population Division

WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

United Nations

New York, 2004

NOTE

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the ex-

pression of any opinion on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any

country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The designations of "more developed regions" and "less developed regions" are intended for statistical

convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area

in the development process.

The term "country" as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.

The present report has been reproduced without formal editing.

ST/ESA/SER.A/236

UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION

Sales No. ____________

ISBN_______________

Copyright © United Nations 2004

All rights reserved

Printed in United Nations, New York

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vi- tal interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and na- tional action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities. iii

PREFACE

Every two years the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs' Population Di-

vision prepares the official United Nations estimates and projections of world, regional and national popu-

lation size and growth, and demographic indicators. The results from the most recent set of estimates and

projections were published in World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, a three-volume set issued

over the period 2003-2004. The estimates and projections in the 2002 Revision cover the period 1950- 2050.
The United Nations also prepares supplementary world population projections covering a much

longer period, referred to as long-range projections. The United Nations previously published long-range

projections on six occasions, each being consistent with the population projections of the following revi-

sions of the World Population Prospects: 1968, 1978, 1980, 1990, 1996 and 1998. These publications pre-

sented long-range projections for the world and its major areas, and since the 1990 set of projections, the

long-range time horizon was until 2150. The Population Division has adopted two major innovations for this new set of long-range popula-

tion projections based on the 2002 Revision. For the first time, the long-range projections are made at the

national level, that is, for each of the 228 units constituting the world. In addition, the time horizon for the

projections is extended to 2300, so as to allow for the eventual stabilization of the population in at least

one scenario. In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of

long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of the Tech-

nical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections at United Nations Headquarters in New

York. The purpose of the meetings was to discuss the assumptions, methodology and preliminary results

of the national population projections to 2300. This volume presents the results of the long-range projections, World Population to 2300, and in-

cludes a detailed analysis. A series of essays on the issue of long-range projections have also been incor-

porated in this report, enriching the debate on this important topic. Experts from outside the United Na-

tions, many of whom took part in the technical working group meetings, authored these essays. The United Nations Population Division is grateful to the National Institute on Aging of the United States of America (NIA) whose grant help support this study. Acknowledgement is also due to

Rodolfo A. Bulatao, who assisted the Population Division in the preparation of this report. The Population

Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the prepara-

tion of the long-range projections. This publication, as well as other population information, may also be accessed on the Population Division world wide web site at www.unpopulation.org . For further information about the long-range

projections, please contact the office of Mr. Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, United Na-

tions, New York, NY 10017, USA, tel: 212-963-3179 and fax: 212-963-2147. v

CONTENTS

Page P

REFACE....................................................................................................................................................................... iii

E

XPLANATORY NOTES.................................................................................................................................................. x

PART ONE. REPORT

E

XECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................................. 1

I

NTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................................. 3

Chapter

I. PROJECTIONS TO 2050.................................................................................................................................... 4

A. World population.................................................................................................................................... 4

B. Major areas.. .......................................................................................................................................... 4

C. Assumptions........................................................................................................................................... 7

D. Long-range possibilities......................................................................................................................... 9

II. P

ROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RANGE GROWTH AND DECLINE.................................................................. 10

A. Scenarios................................................................................................................................................ 10

B. World population.................................................................................................................................... 12

C. More developed and less developed regions.......................................................................................... 17

D. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. 22

E. Africa...................................................................................................................................................... 28

F. Asia ........................................................................................................................................................ 31

G. Latin America and the Caribbean........................................................................................................... 33

H. Oceania................................................................................................................................................... 34

I. Northern America................................................................................................................................... 36

J. Europe.................................................................................................................................................... 37

III. C

OUNTRY RANKINGS...................................................................................................................................... 41

A. Size......................................................................................................................................................... 41

B. Growth.................................................................................................................................................... 41

C. Fertility................................................................................................................................................... 50

D. Mortality................................................................................................................................................. 56

IV. P

OPULATION DENSITY.................................................................................................................................... 62

V. A

GEING POPULATIONS.................................................................................................................................... 66

A. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. 66

B. Historical periods ................................................................................................................................... 70

C. Dependency thresholds........................................................................................................................... 73

D. Countries................................................................................................................................................ 76

VI. C

ONCLUSION.................................................................................................................................................. 82

A. Consequences......................................................................................................................................... 82

B. Limitations ............................................................................................................................................. 82

C. The long view......................................................................................................................................... 83

R

EFERENCES................................................................................................................................................................. 85

vi

No. Page

PART TWO. ESSAYS

I. T OWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE EMOTIONS IN THE POPULAITON OF 2300

Alaka Basu.............................................................................................................................................. 89

II. A N INTERGENERATIONAL RATIONALE FOR FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS IN LONG-RANGE WORLD POPULATION

PROJECTIONS

Herwig Birg............................................................................................................................................ 99

III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

John Caldwell......................................................................................................................................... 112

IV. C

OMPARING LONG-RANGE GLOBAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS WITH HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE

Joel Cohen.............................................................................................................................................. 123

V. W

ORLD POPULATION IN 2300: A CENTURY TOO FAR?

David Coleman....................................................................................................................................... 127

VI. P

OPULATION FUTURES FOR THE NEXT THREE HUNDRED YEARS: SOFT LANDING OR SURPRISES TO COME?

Paul Demeny.......................................................................................................................................... 137

VII. W

HY THE WORLD'S POPULATION WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 9 BILLION IN 2300

Timothy Dyson........................................................................................................................................ 145

VIII. R

EFLECTIONS ON THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES

François Héran...................................................................................................................................... 151

IX. T

HE FUTURE OF HUMAN LIFE EXPECTANCY

S. Jay Olshansky..................................................................................................................................... 159

X. P ROJECTING THE UNKNOWABLE: A PROFESSIONAL EFFORT SURE TO BE MISINTERPRETED

Michael Teitelbaum................................................................................................................................ 165

XI. T

HE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS: CONTINUING

RAPID POPULATION GROWTH

Charles F. Westoff.................................................................................................................................. 169

XII. F

ORETELLING THE FUTURE

John R. Wilmoth..................................................................................................................................... 174

T ABLES

No. Page

1. Population and average annual rate of change of the world and development groups, estimates and three

scenarios: 1950-2300..................................................................................................................................... 14

2. Population, average annual rate of change, and distribution of world population, by major area, estimates

and medium scenario: 1950-2300.................................................................................................................. 22

3. Population by major area and region, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300...................................... 27

4. Average annual rate of change for 50 year-year periods, by major area and region, estimates and medium

scenario: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................... 28

vii

No. Page

5. Twenty largest countries and their populations, selected years..................................................................... 42

6. Countries with the highest and lowest average annual rate of change over 50-year periods......................... 43

7. Countries with the largest increases and decreases over 50-year periods...................................................... 45

8. Population in 2000 and 2100, minimum and maximum size up to 2300, and percentage change to these

points from 2000, by country ........................................................................................................................ 46

9. Highest and lowest average annual rate of population change in any five-year period, by country:

2000-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 51

10. Countries with the highest and lowest total fertility, estimates and medium scenario, selected periods....... 56

11. Countries with the lowest and highest life expectancy at birth, selected periods.......................................... 58

12. Countries with the smallest and largest gap between female and male life expectancies, selected periods.. 61

13. Density in persons per square kilometer of land, by major area and region: 1950-2300............................... 64

14. Population in broad age groups and percentage change over long periods, major areas............................... 68

15. Percentage in different age groups, by major area: 1950-2300..................................................................... 70

16. Start and end of the demographic window phase and corresponding dependency ratio, by major area and

region, estimates and medium scenario......................................................................................................... 74

17. Dependency threshold ages and post-retirement duration, by major area and region, selected years........... 75

18. Countries with the lowest and highest median ages, selected years.............................................................. 77

19. Starting date for entering the demographic window phase by country, classified by major area.................. 79

F

IGURES

1. Estimated world population, 1950-2000, and projections: 2000-2050.......................................................... 5

2. Average annual rate of population change, major areas: 1950-2050............................................................. 6

3. Total fertility, major areas: 1950-2050.......................................................................................................... 6

4. World total fertility and life expectancy at birth: 1995-2050........................................................................ 8

5. Maximum and minimum country values in each period for net reproduction rate and average annual rate

of population change: 2050-2300.................................................................................................................. 12

6. Estimated world population: 1950-2000, and projections: 2000-2300.......................................................... 13

7. Change in world population over 50-year periods, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300..................... 13

8. Average annual rate of change of the world population and total fertility, estimates and three scenarios:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 15

9. Comparison of world population and net reproduction rate with previous long-range projections,

estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2150.................................................................................................. 16

10. Crude birth and death rate and rate of natural increase for the world, estimates and medium scenario:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 17

11. Significant world demographic events between 2000 and 2300.................................................................... 18

12. Total population, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and medium scenario:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 19

13. Average annual rate of population change, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and

three scenarios: 1950-2300............................................................................................................................ 19

14. Total fertility, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300....... 20

15. Crude birth and death rate, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 20

16. Male and female life expectancy at birth, more developed and less developed regions: 1950-2300............ 21

17. Population in major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300....................................................... 23

18. Average annual rate of population change, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300......... 23

19. Total fertility, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2175...................................................... 24

20. Periods when net reproduction rate is below 1, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2200... 25

21. Crude death rate and points of intersection with crude birth rate, major areas, estimates and medium

scenario: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................... 26

22. Difference between life expectancy at birth in each major area and in Latin America and the Caribbean:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 26

viii

No. Page

23. Total population, African regions: 1950-2300 .............................................................................................. 29

24. Average annual rate of population change, African regions: 1950-2300...................................................... 30

25. Total fertility, African regions: 1950-2175.................................................................................................... 30

26. Life expectancy at birth, African regions: 1950-2300................................................................................... 31

27. Total population, Asian regions: 1950-2300................................................................................................. 32

28. Average annual rate of population change, Asian regions: 1950-2300......................................................... 32

29. Total fertility, Asian regions: 1950-2175 ...................................................................................................... 33

30. Life expectancy at birth, Asian regions: 1950-2300...................................................................................... 34

31. Total population, Latin American and Caribbean regions: 1950-2300.......................................................... 35

32. Life expectancy at birth, Latin America and the Caribbean: 1950-2300....................................................... 35

33. Average annual rate of population change, with and without migration, Northern America: 1950-2175..... 36

34. Life expectancy at birth, United Sates of America compared to Japan and Western Europe: 1950-2300..... 37

35. Total population, European regions: 1950-2300........................................................................................... 38

36. Average annual rate of population change, European regions: 1950-2300................................................... 38

37. Total fertility, European regions: 1950-2175 ................................................................................................ 39

38. Life expectancy at birth, European regions: 1950-2300................................................................................ 40

39. Population trends in selected high-growth and low-growth countries: 1950-2300....................................... 44

40. Percentage distribution of countries by total fertility level: 1950-2150 ........................................................ 55

41. Total fertility in Niger and Latvia, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300.............................................. 57

42. Life expectancy at birth by sex in Botswana, Japan, Sierra Leone and Suriname: 1950-2300 ..................... 59

43. Gap between female and male life expectancies at birth, selected major areas and regions: 1950-2300...... 60

44. Density, major areas: 1950-2300................................................................................................................... 63

45. Density in relation to land area by region and for selected countries: 2100.................................................. 63

46. Density in relation to land area, 192 countries: 2100.................................................................................... 65

47. Median age, major areas: 1950-2300............................................................................................................. 66

48. Distribution of population by age, more developed and less developed regions: 1950-2300........................ 68

49. Distribution of the population in three broad age groups, major areas: 1950-2100....................................... 69

50. Dependency ratio during the demographic window phase, major areas........................................................ 72

51. Dependency ratio during the demographic window phase, regions of Oceania and Northern American

countries ........................................................................................................................................................ 72

52. Dependency thresholds, life expectancy at birth, and expected working life, more developed and less

developed regions: 1950-2050....................................................................................................................... 76

53. Percentage of population at older ages, Japan and Liberia: 1950-2300......................................................... 79

54. World population, estimates and three scenarios: 1700-2300....................................................................... 84

55. Average annual rate of change of the world population, estimates and three scenarios: 1700-2300............. 84

A

NNEX TABLES

A1. Population of the world by development group and scenario: 1950-2300.................................................... 179

A2. Average annual rate of change of the population of the world by development group and scenario:

1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 181

A3. Total fertility of the world by development group and scenario: 1950-2300................................................ 183

A4. Life expectancy at birth of the world by development group and sex: 1950-2300........................................ 185

A5. Total population by major area, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300............................................... 187

A6. Average annual rate of population change by major area, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300....... 189

A7. Total fertility by major area, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300.................................................... 191

A8. Life expectancy at birth by major area and sex: 1950-2300.......................................................................... 193

A9. Total fertility of the world by development group, major area and region, estimates and medium scenario:

selected periods ............................................................................................................................................. 195

A10. Life expectancy at birth of the world by development group, major area, region and sex: selected

periods........................................................................................................................................................... 196

A11. Total population by country, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 ................................................... 198

ix

No. Page

A12. Average annual rate of population change by country, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300........... 203

A13. Total fertility by country, estimates and medium scenario: selected periods................................................ 208

A14. Male life expectancy at birth by country: selected periods............................................................................ 213

A15. Female life expectancy at birth by country: selected periods........................................................................ 218

A16. Population density by country, estimates and medium scenario: selected years........................................... 223

A17. Median age by country, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300........................................................... 228

A18. Proportion of broad age groups of the world by development group, major area and region, estimates and

medium scenario: 1950-2300........................................................................................................................ 233

A19. Start and end of the demographic window phase and corresponding dependency ratio, by country,

estimates and medium scenario..................................................................................................................... 236

x

Explanatory notes

Tables presented in this volume make use of the following symbols: Two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. An em dash ( - ) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A hyphen (-) indicates that the item is not applicable. A minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease.

A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals.

Years given start on 1 July.

Use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 1995-2000, signifies the full period in- volved, from 1 July of the first year to 1 July of the second year. Numbers and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Countries and areas are grouped geographically into six major areas: Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Northern America; and Oceania. These major areas are further di-

vided into 21 geographical regions. In addition, for statistical convenience, the regions are classified as

belonging to either of two categories: more developed or less developed. The less developed regions in-

clude all the regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as

Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. The more developed regions comprise Australia/New Zealand,

Europe, Northern America and Japan.

xi

PART ONE. REPORT

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 1

World Population to 2300

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Long-range population projections are reported

to 2300, covering twice as long a period as ever covered in previous United Nations projections.

These projections are not done by major area and

for selected large countries (China and India), as was the previous practice, but for all countries of the world, providing greater detail.

In these projections, world population peaks at

9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows

slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these pro- jections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.

This pattern of rise, decline, and rise again re-

sults from assumptions about future trends in vital rates: that, country by country, fertility will fall below replacement level - though in some cases not for decades - and eventually return to re- placement; and that, country by country, life ex- pectancy will eventually follow a path of uninter- rupted but slowing increase. With alternative as- sumptions about fertility, long-range trends could be quite different. With long-range total fertility

0.3 children above replacement, projected world

population in 2300 is four times as large as the main projection; with total fertility 0.2 children below replacement, world population in 2300 is one-quarter of the main projection.

Regions and countries will follow similar

demographic paths in the long run, given similar assumptions for different countries about long- range vital rate trends. However, because initial assumptions differ, and because this gives rise to slight variations in trends, countries and regions will not be exactly alike, even by 2300. In fact, what are today considered more developed and less developed regions will still be demographi- cally distinguishable, with regard, for instance, to life expectancies and proportions at advanced ages. In addition, regions and countries will go through critical stages of growth - zero growth, subreplacement fertility, a return to positive growth - at different points in the future, giving rise to a global demographic map with areas that shrink and stretch at different times in the next three centuries.quotesdbs_dbs29.pdfusesText_35

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