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XXXII Coll

Le Changement Climatique, la

et les risques climatiques

Climatic Change, Variability and

Climatic Risks

29 Mai -

1 Juin

2019
iii

COMPOSITION DU COMIT

Panagiotis MAHERAS

Christina ANAGNOSTOPOULOU

Fotini KOLYVA-MACHERA

Kostas LAGOUVARDOS

Vassiliki KOTRONI

Nikolaos HATZIANASTASSIOU

v

COMPOSITION DU COMIT

1. ANAGNOSTOPOULOU Christina

2. BARETTE Natalie

3. BELLEFLAMME Alexandre

4. BEN BOUBAKER Habib

Tunisie)

5. BIGOT Sylvain

-Alpes, France) 6.

7. CAMBERLIN Pierre

8. CANTAT Olivier

-Normandie, France)

9. CARREGA Pierre

de Nice, France)

10. CROITORU Adina

(U. Cluj-Napoca, Roumanie)

11. DAHECH Salem

12. DROGUE Gilles

13. DUBREUIL Vincent

14. DOUGUEDROIT Annick

- Marseille, France) 15.

16. JUVANON DU VACHAT Regis

17. EL MELKI Taoufik

- Tunisie)

18. ENDLICHER Wilfried

19. ERPICUM Michel

20. HATZIANASTASSIOU Nikolaos

21. FALLOT Jean-Michel

22. FEIDAS Haralambos

23. FLOCAS Helena

24. FORTIN Guillaume

e Moncton, Canada)

25. FOTIADI Aggeliki

26. FRATIANNI Simona

27. HATZAKI Maria

28. HENIA Latifa

29. HOLOBACA Iulian

(U. Cluj-Napoca, Roumanie)

30. JOLY Daniel

31. KASTENDEUCH Pierre

32. KERMADI Saida

33. KOTRONI Vassiliki

34. LAGOUVARDOS Kostas

35. LOLIS Christos

(Un

36. MADELIN Malika

37. MAHERAS Panagiotis

38. MARTIN Nicolas

39. MENDONCA Francisco

40.

41. NASTOS Panagiotis

42. NORRANT Caroline

43. PAUL Patrice

44. PLANCHON Olivier

45.

2, France)

46. RENARD Florent

47. RICHARD Yves

48. ROME Sandra

-Alpes, France)

49. RONCHAIL Josyane

50. ROUCOU Pascal

France)

51. ROUSSEL Isabelle

52. SALOUI Abdelmalik

(U. Hassan II, Casablanca, Maroc)

53. SOUBEYROUX Jean-Michel

-France Toulouse, France)

54. TOLIKA Konstantia

55. TRABOULSI Myriam

Libanaise, Liban)

56. ULLMAN Albin

57. ZAHARIA Liliana

58. ZANIS Prodromos

vii

SPONSOR

Avec le soutien :

ix

LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE, LA

VLES RISQUES CLIMATIQUE

CLIMATIC CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND

CLIMATE RISKS

Site web du colloque : https://aic2019auth.org/

xi

AVANT PROPOS

-six es moments conviviaux, du 29 mai au 1 juin 2019, 6 colloque s. Les -cinq subtropicales soit les basses latitudes. Elles nous rappellent que le changement climatique - et coup de froid est convient d'analyser non seulement en termes de changement moyen mais surtout en raison de humaines. Un nombre important des communications pro fructueuses sur ces derniers sujets. essaloniki. xii recherches, de compagnie SCIENTACT pour le soutien ravant relus colloque. Donc, Konstantia Tolika , Christina Anagnostopoulou et Panagiotis Maheras xiii

INTRODUCTION - WELCOME MESSAGE

In 1993, the Department of Meteorology and Climatology was pleased to host in Thessaloniki the VIIth Conference of the International Association of Climatology (AIC). Twenty-six years later, it is a great pleasure for our Department to host again, the XXXIIth AIC conference, from May 29 to June 1, 2019. Nearly 110 researchers coming from more than twenty different countries are participating in it. The conference includes three invited speeches and almost 100 papers selected by the scientific committee of the AIC to be presented in the form of oral communications or posters. The main theme of the conference is: Climate change, climate variability and risks. The climatic system, the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere, has long known anthropogenic disturbances. Therefore, the theme of climate change is the subject of several sessions of the XXXIIth AIC symposium, and as a result, numerous works have been proposed. The African countries are powerfully represented in this conference since nearly fifty papers, have as their domain of studies either the subtropical latitudes or the low latitudes. This reminds us that climate change - and moreover climate variability - by the amplitude of the phenomena as well as the vulnerability of the populations concerned, often have a major impact in these countries. Climate variability and Risks are two other strong themes of the conference. We remember for this purpose the heavy annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall encountered throughout Greece during 2014, the exceptional "cold snap" observed in northern Greece and the Balkans, in general, with huge quantities of snow during the month of January 2017 and more recently, during the heavy snow winter of the present year. Agriculture is one of the most important aspects potentially most affected by climate change that needs to be analyzed not only in terms of average change but also because of its variability and extreme events. The local or regional impact of global climate change is a considerable challenge that requires the implementation of original methodologies to illustrate the consequences observed in many human activities. A significant number of the proposed papers deal with this subject. Other topics were also discussed during this conference, such as atmospheric circulation, urban climate and atmospheric pollution, teleconnections and finally climate modeling promising important and fruitful discussions on these topics. During the excursion which has both a scientific and cultural character, we will visit, on Saturday, June 1, the archaeological museum of Vergina. It is an extraordinary underground museum organized around the Macedonian royal tombs and an artificial tumulus. Then an amazing visit will take place at the house of the ancient gods of Greece. Stunning views, lush forests and an archaeological site to remember are the ingredients of an unforgettable experience. The tour will continue to the traditional village of Litochoro, when we will have time for a walk in the enchanting Enipeas Valley, on the lower slopes of Mount Olympus, before returning to Thessaloniki. Moreover, we would like to thank sincerely all those who helped to implement this event, and especially our students for their role in the heavy task of preparing the proceedings. Without xiv the financial and logistical support of the research and administration committee of the University of Thessaloniki as well as the Dean of the Faculty of Sciences, this conference could not have been held. We also thank SCIENTACT for the financial support it provided to our symposium as well as to the French Embassy and the French Institute in Athens for the funding of the invited conference given by the French climatologist Joel GUIOT. Finally, it is worth mentioning that the articles published in the conference volume have been reviewed by a scientific committee of the conference. So, our warm thanks also go to the members of this scientific committee from twelve different countries (Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Romania, Switzerland, Tunisia, Morocco and Greece) who accepted to evaluate critically, the submitted articles, contributing to the quality of the papers presented. We wish to you all a fruitful and interesting conference.

All the best.

Konstantia Tolika, Christina Anagnostopoulou and Panagiotis Maheras.

XXXII Thessaloniki -

xv

TABLE DES

Pages introductives - Introductive Pages

................................................................................. iii ....................................................................................... v

Sponsor ................................................................................................................................ vii

Avant propos......................................................................................................................... xi

Introduction - Welcome message ........................................................................................ xiii

................................................................................................................ xv

Changement Climatique - Climate Change

ALIMENTAIRE DANS LA COMMUNE DE TCHAOUROU (BENIN) .............................. 3

ADETONA L., VODOUNOU J.B. et GBADAMASSI F.

FUTURE EXTREMES TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL: TRENDS AND CHANGES ASSESSMENT OVER THE MONO RIVER BASIN IN WEST AFRICA ............................ 9

BATABLINLE L., LAWIN A.E. et CELESTIN M.

LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES AU MAROC: OUTILS ET REFLEXIONS ........ 15

BOUBEKRI A., SALOUI A., KANJAA R. et FILALI A.

CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE - PANORAMA INTERNATIONAL............................... 21

JUVANON DU VACHAT R.

RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN OUEME WATERSHED BY 2080 IN

WEST AFRICA .................................................................................................................. 27

KODJA D.J., BATABLINLE L., AKOGNONGBE A., AMOUSSOU E., MAHE G., VISSIN

E.W., PATUREL J.E. et HOUNDENOU C.

EVOLUTION DES TEMPERATURES OBSERVEES ET PROJECTIONS FUTURES - REGION DE CASABLANCA-SETTAT (MAROC) ........................................................... 33 OUATTAB M., HAMMOUDY W., DAHMAN A., ILMEN R., SALOUI A., HSAINE M. et

SEBBAR A.

PROJECTIONS HYDROCLIMATIQUES DANS LA PROVINCE OLEICOLE DE JAEN

(ANDALOUSIE) ................................................................................................................ 39

PINNA T., OUDIN L., RONCHAIL J., COHEN M., BASTIN S. et LE TREUT H.

XXXII Thessaloniki -

xvi

CLIMATI

........................................ 45 RANDRIAMIFIDISON R.F.A., TSIAVAHANANAHARY T.J., RAKOTOARISOA D. et

ANDRIAMAMPIHANTONA F.

URBAIN ............................................................................................................................. 51

ROUSSEAU D.

LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE, UN PHENOMENE PLANETAIRE, UNE GESTION

URBAINE ..................................................................................................... 57

ROUSSEL I.

PERCEPTIONS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES PAR LES POPULATIONS DU SIXIEME ARRONDISSEMENT DE COTONOU .............................................................. 63

VIGNINOU T., YABI I. et HOUNDOLO N.R.

Impact - Impacts

CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET CEREALICULTURE EN NORMANDIE : QUELLES

PERSPECTIVES POUR 2100 ? .......................................................................................... 71

BEAUVAIS F., CANTAT O. et MADELINE P.

DE KERKENNAH FACE AUX EFFETS DES CHANGEMENTS

CLIMATIQUES

NIVEAU MARIN D'ICI LA FIN DU XXI SIECLE ............................................................ 77

BOUAZIZ R.

CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET DATES DE FLORAISON DES POMMIERS DANS LE

VAL DE RANCE (BRETAGNE) ....................................................................................... 83

DUBREUIL V., MEME K., BONNARDOT V., AUBERT J.F., VERGER A.C. et MELEC D. CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE, MUTATION DE LA PRODUCTION AGRICOLE ET PERCEPTIONS PAYSANNES DANS LA ZONE TOGOLAISE DE PRODUCTION DU ............................................................ 89

KOLA E., YABI I. et PILABINA S.

INTERACTION BETWEEN SOIL SURFACE AND ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERING TOPOCLIMATIC FACTORS TO THE COMPREHENSION OF INUNDATION AND

FLOOD PROCESSES IN BRAZILIAN CITIES ................................................................. 95

XXXII Thessaloniki -

xvii EVALUATION DES IMPACTS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SUR LES RISQUES NATURELS AU MAROC SEPTENTRIONAL ............................................... 101 MASTERE M., EL FELLAH B., VAN VLIET-LANOE B. et MAQUAIRE O. CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SENSIBILITE DESRESSOURCES EN EAU DANS LE BASSIN VERSANT DE LA KARA AU NORD-TOGO ............................................. 107

PILABINA S., YABI I. et KOLA E.

ADAPTATION DE LA VITICULTURE AU CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE : VERS DES ......................................................................... 113 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON ANNUAL MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION USING HIGH RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS FOR THE REGION

OF IGOUMENITSA ......................................................................................................... 119

TSIKERDEKIS A., MYRIOUNIS C., ZANIS P., TSIROGIANNIS I. et VARRAS G.

Risques Climatiques - Climate Risks

LES FORTES PLUIES ET LES INONDATIONS DU 17 OCTOBRE 2018 DANS LA -OUEST DE LA TUNISIE ............................... 127

AL ATRACH M. et FEHRI N.

VERSANT DE LA LOBO (CENTRE- ....................... 133 COLD WAVES IN THE CAPITAL CITIES OF THE BRAZILIAN SOUTH REGION .... 139

ALVES M.P.A., SILVEIRA R.B. et NASCIMENTO J.R.L.

GESTION DES INONDATIONS AVEC LE PLAN DE CONTINGENCE DANS LA COMMUNE DE GRAND- ............................. 145 ATIYE Y.E., KOUMASSI H., DJOSSOU R., ATCHADE G., DOUGNON D.L., SOHOUNOU

M. et VISSIN E.W.

LE GEL EST- DAN ?

ATURA) ........................................................................................................................... 151

AVILA F.

LES EPISODES DE SECHERESSE SUR LA PLAINE DU FLEUVE PO EN ITALIE ..... 157 -HIDALGO J.C., VICENTE-SERRANO S.M., ACQUAOTTA

F. et FRATIANNI S.

XXXII Thessaloniki -

xviii INDICE DE RISQUE INCENDIE EN TUNISIE : APPLICATION REGIONALE, SAISONNIERE ET INTERANNUELLE 1950-2007 ......................................................... 163

BELHAJ KHEDHER C., MOUILLOT F. et EL MELKI T.

MADAGASCAR (2001-2017) ........................................................................................... 169

BIGOT S., DUMAS D., BROU T., CURT T. et RAZANAKA S. LE DEFICIT PLUVIOMETRIQUE COMME UN PHENOMENE CLIMATIQUE DE RISQUE DANS LA DEPRESSION DE SEVERIN-ROUMANIE.CAUSES ET EFFETS . 175

CARABLAISA S., GRECU F. et TEODOR M.

ANALYSE SPATIALE DE

BOURGOGNE-FRANCHE- ............................................................................... 181

CHARD Y.

.......................................................................................................................... 187

GOUDARD G. et

LES PLUIES QUI INONDENT DANS LE SAHARA TUNISIEN .................................... 193

HLAOUI Z. et HENIA L.

INONDATION DEVASTATRICE DANS LA VILLE DE SOLIMAN (TUNISIE) : CAS DE

SEPTEMBRE 2018........................................................................................................... 199

HMIDI N., FEHRI N. et BACCAR A.

LES AMENAGEMENTS DE LUTTE CONTRE LES INONDATIONS DANS LE BASSIN - OUEST LYONNAIS ......................................................... 205

KERMADI S. et HOURS T.

VERSANT DE LA VOLTA AU BENIN .......................................................................... 211

KOUMASSI D.

QUELQUES INDICATEURS DE VULNERABILITE AUX INONDATIONS DANS LE BASSIN- ................................................. 217

MBADINGA I., INDJIELEY M. et MALOBA M.

LOCAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: TREND ANALYSIS USING EXTREME INDICES IN

CURITIBA, BRAZIL ....................................................................................................... 223

XXXII Thessaloniki -

xix ESSAI DE CARTOGRAPHIE DU RISQUE DE STRESS HYDRIQUE DANS LA PLAINE ......................................................... 229

MJEJRA M. et SAMAALI H.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF METHODS OF STANDARD CLIMATIC YEAR CHARACTERIZATIONS IN FACE OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE CITY OF

RECIFE/BRAZIL ............................................................................................................. 235

LES INONDATIONS CATASTROPHIQUES DE SEPTEMBRE 2018 DANS LA PENINSULE DU CAP BON (TUNISIE) ET LEURES INCIDENCES MATERIELLES: CAS .......................................................................... 241 MRABTI M., BOURGOU-ABDAOUI M., BEN BOUBAKER H. et AGUERBI JAOUADI H. .................................. 247

MUTTI P., BEZERRA B. et DUBREUIL V.

.............. 253 RICHARD Y., DUDEK J., EMERY J., GRANJON L., PILLOT L., REGA M., VAIRET T.,

PERGAUD J., CODET-

B. DUREE ET FREQUENCE DES VAGUES DE CHALEUR EN AFRIQUE TROPICALE SEPTENTRIONALE SELON 5 INDICES DE CHALEUR ............................................... 259 ROME S., POHL B., OUESLATI B., MORON V., RAYMOND F. JANICOT S. et

DIEDHIOU A.

THE RISK OF DROUGHT: ISSUES AND MANAGEMENT AT THE PROVINCE OF

BERKANE (MOROCCO) ................................................................................................ 265

SBAI A. et BOUKHIDOUS M.

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