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ChapterII
ANDGROvnHOFTHELABOURFORCE
A.Frameworkofdemographicandotherfactors
placeinthe connexionwithquestions and migrationespeciallyislikely manual.B.Influencesofthepopulationage-structure
1.Age-standardizedactivityrates
-40- Theseshow howtherelativesizeofthelabourforcewouldvaryundertheinfluence (sixyearsofage andover)inPeruatthecensusof1961.gjThestandardweights maleactivityrates(columns5 and 6) andtheproducts(columns8and 9)aresummed and 9) populationsixyearsofage andover.Inthesame way,age-standardizedrates couldbecalculatedforthefemalepopulationsixyearsofage andover,andfor columns 5 and6)issmaller:only2.3percent.Thismeansthatthereisan offsetstheneteffectofotherfactors.Ascanbeseenincolumns3and 4,the ofthisimbalanceintheagecompositionofthepopulation,and arural-urban AspectsofManpower. Sex and AgePatternsofParticipationinEconomic GertrudeBancroft,TheAmericanLaborFOrCe:--ItsGrowth andChangingComposition
(NewYork,1958),chap.3. towhichthelabourforcedatarefer. -41- 1 f\) ITable10
Population
Activityrates
iParrentdis-Computationofstand-
Age (years)TotalUrbanRuralUrbanRural totalUrbanRural
population 12345 6789
Total6+3 9281 9002 02861.163.4100.059.664.8
6-95822563260.50.614•.80.10.1
10-14 595281
3135.27.415.10.81.1
15-19494 25224246.363.812.65.88.0
20-24421 22219986.697.210.7
9·3
10.425-2936018217896.099.09.28.89.1
30-34312160152 98.299.2
7.97.87.9
35-3926112713398.499.26.66.56.6
40-44209102107
98.399.15.35.25.3
45-49177849498.099·1
I4.54.44.5
50-54143707396.6 98.73.63.53.6
55-5911053 5793.798.5
2.82.62.8
60-6499445587.595.
1 +2.52.22.465-696027 3278.690.91.51.2
1.470-7442182560.677.91.10.70.8
75andover63224140.457.7
I1.6I0.60.9
Notreported121 160.564.80.1
I0.00.0
---_.------'-Note:Columns7, 8and9computedfromunroundeddata.
whole2.andinteractionoffactors
beonguardagainsterrorsand biasseswhichmayresultfromafailuretotakedue ·,dJI'LcuLtitisfrom aneconomicpoi.rrtofviewforthecommunityandthefamily descr-i.bedheretobestrictlyvalid- aconditionwhichisprobablyseldomfully sat.isfiedinreality.Whilealittleinterdependencemay do noharm,the bemisleading. table5)maybeuseuasa summarymeasureofthelevelsofage-specific activityrates.Forexample,seeDemovraphicAspectsofManpower. Sexand publication,SalesNo, :61.XIII.4),p.18andtableA-7.Thishasthe -43- oftheeffectonlabourforcedimensions. thefollowingscheme:Age-specificactivityrates
PopUlation
agecompositionEarliercensus
Latercensus
Earliercensus
A DLatercensus
C B difference(C - A)or(B - D);thetwoestimateswilldifferasaresultof inpopulationagecompositioncanbeestimatedeitherasthedifference(D -A) or(B -C). Sothenetchangeofthecrudeactivityratebetweenthetwodates (B -A)canbefactoredintocomponentsineitheroftwoways: (B-A)=(C-A)+(B- C);or =(D-A)+(B- D). presentexample. -44-Table11
ofJapan,1940 and 1960 Age (years)Populationdistributionas
a percentage 191+0Activityrates
194019bO
Calculationofage-standardized
.;.;m.divityrR.tee19b 1940population1960population
I \Jl I 1 Allages
Under 15
15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 andover
234567
100.0100.056.058.553.#/61.72:./
36.431.2
10.2 10.277.651.65.3
7·9
8.39.091.487.97.38.2
7.78.996.596.9
7·5
8.6 6.88.297.897.86.78.0
6.26.098.097.7
6.1 5.9 5.45.098.097.75.34.9
4.54·997.497·14.44.8
4.04.4
95.596.03.84.2
3.4 3·9
90.890.53.13.5
2.93.183.682.52.42.6
4.15.061.954.42.23.1
ofJapan,AbridgedReport,PartI,AllJapan,pp.138-41,fordataon agestructureand pp.226-227 fordataoneconomicactivity. a/Sumofunroundedproducts. Dasshownincolumn7.Hehave:
Age-specificactivityrates
Population
agecomposition1940census1960census 1940censusA=56.0C
53·9
1960censusD=61.7B58.5
iLthecrudeactivityrate: Netchange
Effectofchangesin
specificactivity rates Effectofchancesin
population agecomposition +4.653.956.0 61.
'7 -2.1 or 61.'7
53·9
56.0
=+5.'7 wastoraisethecruderatebyan amountwithintherangeof4.6to5.'7.l'Jithin areindeterminate. 1.Analyticalpro1iections
Standardizationprovidesno meansofestimatingtheeffectsofthecomponent contemporaryage-specificratesofmortalityand.ferti.lity,theanalystmakes a -46- picture,whereitisconsideredimportant,by meansofsupplementarycalculations whichwillbedescribedbelow. chieflyby areductionoftherateofentriesasshownincolumns12and13.The force(column9). ll ,InternationalPopulation -47- Tablel2
Dimensions
1950
censusConstantfertility andmortality ConstantChanging
activityactivity ratesrates 19/30projections
Decreasingmortality
constantfertility ConstantChanging
activityactivity ratesrates Decreasing
andfertility. ConstantChanging
activity activity rates rates 123____456
Increaseofmalelabourforce
duringprojectionperiod: Number(thousands)
Percentageof1950labourforce
Crudeactivityrate(percentage
oftotalmalepopulation)56.413 gr2 95.6
56.5
11392
78.0
51.416 686
n4.2 54.913 721
93·9
14 941102.3
59.912 431
85.1
54.8
I co IComponentsoflabourforcechange
(annua]_ ratesper1,000male labour:force):2:/ Entryrate
Retirementrate
Rateoflossesbydeath
Re-placementrate
Replacementratio(entriesper
100retirementsanddeaths)
Agecompositionofmalelabour
force(percentage): Allages,10andover
10-1920-5455
andover 38.838.339.440.8 40.035.336.0
252 238
199
324260280229
100.0
100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
21.4 21.415.422.115.919.8
14.2 69.668.675.467.8 74.869.575.9
9·09.99·2
10.19.'+10.79.8
Table12(continued)
Dimensions
Effectsof
changeof activity ratesalone (4-3) 9 Effectsofdecrease
ofmortalitywith constantfertility ConstantChanging
activityactivity (5-3)(6-4) 1011
EffectsofsimultaneousEffectsofsimul-
decreaseofmortalitytaneousdecrease andfertilityofmortalityand ConstantChangingfertilityandchange
activityactivityofactivityrates (7-3)(8-4).18-3) 121314
IncreaseofmalelabourforcAduring
projectionperiod: Number(thousands)
Percentageof1950labourforce
Crudeactivityrate
(percentageoftotalmalepopulation) -2580 -17.6 5.1 +27111.
+18.6 1.6 +2 329 15.9 1.7 +959
+6.7 +3.4 +1039
+7.1 +3.4 -1541 -10·5 1.7 I Componentsoflabourt'or-cechange (annualratesper1,000malelabour force):!!:I Entryrate
Retirementrate
Rateoflossesbydeath
Replacementrate
Replacementratio(entriesper
100retirementsanddeaths)
+1.1+2.5 +0.6-3.0-3.4-2.3 +3.8 0·9
+0.1+0.6+0.3 +4.1 0.1-4.4-4.5-4.1-4.4-4.5
2.6+6.0+5.0+0.5+0.7-1.9
39+86+61+ 42+30
-9 Age compositionofmalelabourforce (percentage): Allages,10 andover
10-19 20-5 L f 55 andover
6.0 +6.8 0.7 +0.7 0.8 +0.2quotesdbs_dbs24.pdfusesText_30
1940population1960population
I \Jl I 1Allages
Under 15
15-19 20-24 25-2930-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65 andover
234567
100.0100.056.058.553.#/61.72:./
36.431.2
10.2 10.277.651.65.3
7·9
8.39.091.487.97.38.2
7.78.996.596.9
7·5
8.66.88.297.897.86.78.0
6.26.098.097.7
6.1 5.95.45.098.097.75.34.9
4.54·997.497·14.44.8
4.04.4
95.596.03.84.2
3.43·9
90.890.53.13.5
2.93.183.682.52.42.6
4.15.061.954.42.23.1
ofJapan,AbridgedReport,PartI,AllJapan,pp.138-41,fordataon agestructureand pp.226-227 fordataoneconomicactivity. a/Sumofunroundedproducts.Dasshownincolumn7.Hehave:
Age-specificactivityrates
Population
agecomposition1940census1960census1940censusA=56.0C
53·9
1960censusD=61.7B58.5
iLthecrudeactivityrate:Netchange
Effectofchangesin
specificactivity ratesEffectofchancesin
population agecomposition +4.653.956.0 61.'7 -2.1 or 61.'7
53·9
56.0=+5.'7 wastoraisethecruderatebyan amountwithintherangeof4.6to5.'7.l'Jithin areindeterminate.
1.Analyticalpro1iections
Standardizationprovidesno meansofestimatingtheeffectsofthecomponent contemporaryage-specificratesofmortalityand.ferti.lity,theanalystmakes a -46- picture,whereitisconsideredimportant,by meansofsupplementarycalculations whichwillbedescribedbelow. chieflyby areductionoftherateofentriesasshownincolumns12and13.The force(column9). ll ,InternationalPopulation -47-Tablel2
Dimensions
1950censusConstantfertility andmortality
ConstantChanging
activityactivity ratesrates19/30projections
Decreasingmortality
constantfertilityConstantChanging
activityactivity ratesratesDecreasing
andfertility.ConstantChanging
activity activity rates rates123____456
Increaseofmalelabourforce
duringprojectionperiod:Number(thousands)
Percentageof1950labourforce
Crudeactivityrate(percentage
oftotalmalepopulation)56.413 gr2 95.656.5
11392
78.0
51.416 686
n4.254.913 721
93·9
14 941102.3
59.912 431
85.154.8
I co
IComponentsoflabourforcechange
(annua]_ ratesper1,000male labour:force):2:/Entryrate
Retirementrate
Rateoflossesbydeath
Re-placementrate
Replacementratio(entriesper
100retirementsanddeaths)
Agecompositionofmalelabour
force(percentage):Allages,10andover
10-1920-5455
andover38.838.339.440.8 40.035.336.0
252 238
199324260280229
100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
21.4 21.415.422.115.919.8
14.269.668.675.467.8 74.869.575.9
9·09.99·2
10.19.'+10.79.8
Table12(continued)
Dimensions
Effectsof
changeof activity ratesalone (4-3) 9Effectsofdecrease
ofmortalitywith constantfertilityConstantChanging
activityactivity (5-3)(6-4) 1011EffectsofsimultaneousEffectsofsimul-
decreaseofmortalitytaneousdecrease andfertilityofmortalityandConstantChangingfertilityandchange
activityactivityofactivityrates (7-3)(8-4).18-3)121314
IncreaseofmalelabourforcAduring
projectionperiod:Number(thousands)
Percentageof1950labourforce
Crudeactivityrate
(percentageoftotalmalepopulation) -2580 -17.6 5.1 +27111.+18.6 1.6 +2 329 15.9 1.7 +959
+6.7 +3.4 +1039
+7.1 +3.4 -1541 -10·5 1.7 I
Entryrate
Retirementrate
Rateoflossesbydeath
Replacementrate
Replacementratio(entriesper
100retirementsanddeaths)
+1.1+2.5 +0.6-3.0-3.4-2.3 +3.80·9
+0.1+0.6+0.3 +4.10.1-4.4-4.5-4.1-4.4-4.5
2.6+6.0+5.0+0.5+0.7-1.9
39+86+61+ 42+30
-9 Age compositionofmalelabourforce (percentage):Allages,10 andover
10-19 20-5 L f55 andover
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