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ChapterII

ANDGROvnHOFTHELABOURFORCE

A.Frameworkofdemographicandotherfactors

placeinthe connexionwithquestions and migrationespeciallyislikely manual.

B.Influencesofthepopulationage-structure

1.Age-standardizedactivityrates

-40- Theseshow howtherelativesizeofthelabourforcewouldvaryundertheinfluence (sixyearsofage andover)inPeruatthecensusof1961.gjThestandardweights maleactivityrates(columns5 and 6) andtheproducts(columns8and 9)aresummed and 9) populationsixyearsofage andover.Inthesame way,age-standardizedrates couldbecalculatedforthefemalepopulationsixyearsofage andover,andfor columns 5 and6)issmaller:only2.3percent.Thismeansthatthereisan offsetstheneteffectofotherfactors.Ascanbeseenincolumns3and 4,the ofthisimbalanceintheagecompositionofthepopulation,and arural-urban AspectsofManpower. Sex and AgePatternsofParticipationinEconomic GertrudeBancroft,TheAmericanLaborFOrCe:--ItsGrowth andChanging

Composition

(NewYork,1958),chap.3. towhichthelabourforcedatarefer. -41- 1 f\) I

Table10

Population

Activityrates

i

Parrentdis-Computationofstand-

Age (years)TotalUrbanRuralUrbanRural total

UrbanRural

population 1234
5 6789

Total6+3 9281 9002 02861.163.4100.059.664.8

6-9

5822563260.50.614•.80.10.1

10-14 595
281

3135.27.415.10.81.1

15-19494 25224246.363.812.65.88.0

20-24421 22219986.697.210.7

9·3

10.4

25-2936018217896.099.09.28.89.1

30-34312160152 98.299.2

7.97.87.9

35-3926112713398.499.26.66.56.6

40-44209102107

98.399.15.35.25.3

45-49177849498.099·1

I

4.54.44.5

50-54143707396.6 98.73.63.53.6

55-5911053 5793.798.5

2.82.62.8

60-6499445587.595.

1 +2.52.22.4

65-696027 3278.690.91.51.2

1.4

70-7442182560.677.91.10.70.8

75andover63224140.457.7

I

1.6I0.60.9

Notreported121 160.564.80.1

I

0.00.0

---_.------'-

Note:Columns7, 8and9computedfromunroundeddata.

whole

2.andinteractionoffactors

beonguardagainsterrorsand biasseswhichmayresultfromafailuretotakedue ·,dJI'LcuLtitisfrom aneconomicpoi.rrtofviewforthecommunityandthefamily descr-i.bedheretobestrictlyvalid- aconditionwhichisprobablyseldomfully sat.isfiedinreality.Whilealittleinterdependencemay do noharm,the bemisleading. table5)maybeuseuasa summarymeasureofthelevelsofage-specific activityrates.Forexample,seeDemovraphicAspectsofManpower. Sexand publication,SalesNo, :61.XIII.4),p.18andtableA-7.Thishasthe -43- oftheeffectonlabourforcedimensions. thefollowingscheme:

Age-specificactivityrates

PopUlation

agecomposition

Earliercensus

Latercensus

Earliercensus

A D

Latercensus

C B difference(C - A)or(B - D);thetwoestimateswilldifferasaresultof inpopulationagecompositioncanbeestimatedeitherasthedifference(D -A) or(B -C). Sothenetchangeofthecrudeactivityratebetweenthetwodates (B -A)canbefactoredintocomponentsineitheroftwoways: (B-A)=(C-A)+(B- C);or =(D-A)+(B- D). presentexample. -44-

Table11

ofJapan,1940 and 1960 Age (years)

Populationdistributionas

a percentage 191+0

Activityrates

194019bO

Calculationofage-standardized

.;.;m.divityrR.tee

19b

1940population1960population

I \Jl I 1

Allages

Under 15

15-19 20-24 25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64

65 andover

234567

100.0100.056.058.553.#/61.72:./

36.431.2

10.2 10.277.651.65.3

7·9

8.39.091.487.97.38.2

7.78.996.596.9

7·5

8.6

6.88.297.897.86.78.0

6.26.098.097.7

6.1 5.9

5.45.098.097.75.34.9

4.54·997.497·14.44.8

4.04.4

95.596.03.84.2

3.4

3·9

90.890.53.13.5

2.93.183.682.52.42.6

4.15.061.954.42.23.1

ofJapan,AbridgedReport,PartI,AllJapan,pp.138-41,fordataon agestructureand pp.226-227 fordataoneconomicactivity. a/Sumofunroundedproducts.

Dasshownincolumn7.Hehave:

Age-specificactivityrates

Population

agecomposition1940census1960census

1940censusA=56.0C

53·9

1960censusD=61.7B58.5

iLthecrudeactivityrate:

Netchange

Effectofchangesin

specificactivity rates

Effectofchancesin

population agecomposition +4.653.956.0 61.
'7 -2.1 or 61.'7

53·9

56.0
=+5.'7 wastoraisethecruderatebyan amountwithintherangeof4.6to5.'7.l'Jithin areindeterminate.

1.Analyticalpro1iections

Standardizationprovidesno meansofestimatingtheeffectsofthecomponent contemporaryage-specificratesofmortalityand.ferti.lity,theanalystmakes a -46- picture,whereitisconsideredimportant,by meansofsupplementarycalculations whichwillbedescribedbelow. chieflyby areductionoftherateofentriesasshownincolumns12and13.The force(column9). ll ,InternationalPopulation -47-

Tablel2

Dimensions

1950
censusConstantfertility andmortality

ConstantChanging

activityactivity ratesrates

19/30projections

Decreasingmortality

constantfertility

ConstantChanging

activityactivity ratesrates

Decreasing

andfertility.

ConstantChanging

activity activity rates rates

123____456

Increaseofmalelabourforce

duringprojectionperiod:

Number(thousands)

Percentageof1950labourforce

Crudeactivityrate(percentage

oftotalmalepopulation)56.413 gr2 95.6
56.5
11392
78.0

51.416 686

n4.2

54.913 721

93·9

14 941102.3

59.912 431

85.1
54.8
I co

IComponentsoflabourforcechange

(annua]_ ratesper1,000male labour:force):2:/

Entryrate

Retirementrate

Rateoflossesbydeath

Re-placementrate

Replacementratio(entriesper

100retirementsanddeaths)

Agecompositionofmalelabour

force(percentage):

Allages,10andover

10-1920-5455

andover

38.838.339.440.8 40.035.336.0

252 238

199

324260280229

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

21.4 21.415.422.115.919.8

14.2

69.668.675.467.8 74.869.575.9

9·09.99·2

10.19.'+10.79.8

Table12(continued)

Dimensions

Effectsof

changeof activity ratesalone (4-3) 9

Effectsofdecrease

ofmortalitywith constantfertility

ConstantChanging

activityactivity (5-3)(6-4) 1011

EffectsofsimultaneousEffectsofsimul-

decreaseofmortalitytaneousdecrease andfertilityofmortalityand

ConstantChangingfertilityandchange

activityactivityofactivityrates (7-3)(8-4).18-3)

121314

IncreaseofmalelabourforcAduring

projectionperiod:

Number(thousands)

Percentageof1950labourforce

Crudeactivityrate

(percentageoftotalmalepopulation) -2580 -17.6 5.1 +27111.
+18.6 1.6 +2 329 15.9 1.7 +959
+6.7 +3.4 +1039
+7.1 +3.4 -1541 -10·5 1.7 I Componentsoflabourt'or-cechange

(annualratesper1,000malelabour force):!!:I

Entryrate

Retirementrate

Rateoflossesbydeath

Replacementrate

Replacementratio(entriesper

100retirementsanddeaths)

+1.1+2.5 +0.6-3.0-3.4-2.3 +3.8

0·9

+0.1+0.6+0.3 +4.1

0.1-4.4-4.5-4.1-4.4-4.5

2.6+6.0+5.0+0.5+0.7-1.9

39+86+61+ 42+30

-9 Age compositionofmalelabourforce (percentage):

Allages,10 andover

10-19 20-5 L f

55 andover

6.0 +6.8 0.7 +0.7 0.8 +0.2quotesdbs_dbs24.pdfusesText_30
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