[PDF] Who Will Replace Parker? A Copula Function Analysis of Bordeaux

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WhoWillR eplacePark er?ACopulaFunctionAnalysis

ofBordeaux EnPrimeurWineRaters

DonCy r

a ,Lester Kwong b andLing Sun c

Abstract

Thein!uenceofthe winerater RobertPa rkerJr .onBordeauxwineex tendedovera 40-year period,withaparticularimpacton enprimeurwineprices. Consequently,hisannounce mentin

2015that hewouldnolonger rateenprimeur winescrea tessomeuncertaintyformanycha-

teauxthat havepurposelydesigne dtheirproductionwithhis palateandpreferencesin mind.Althoughthe winerater NealMartinw asnamedb yParkerto behissuccessor in termsofenprimeurwineratings ,thereareseveralotherwinecriticsw hohave consistently ratedenprimeurwinesove rseveralyears.Consequently ,weemploycopulafunction analysis toexplor ewhichwinecritics'ratingsexhibitthe closestlinearandnonlinearrelationship ,for rightbankenprimeurwines,withthoseofPa rker. Thestudy employsda taovertheperiodof

2005through 2012,duringwhichtimesev eralwinecritics ,including NealMartinforthe

periodof2010 -2012,rated enprimeurwinesalongsidePa rker. Ourresultsindicatethatof thewinecritics thatcontin uetora teenprimeurwines,theratingsof JamesSuckling exhibit thehighestrank correla tionandalso bivariateuppertaildependence,identi "edthrough copulafunctionanal ysis,with thoseofParker.(JELClassi "cations:C19,G13,L66)

Keywords:copulafunctions, enprimeur,winecritics .

I.Introduction

NumerousstudiessuchasCyr ,Kw ong,andSun (2017b),Noparumpa, Kazaz,and Webster(2015),Ali,Lecocq, andVisser (2010),Ashenfelter (2010),andJ onesand Storchmann(2001)hav eshownthatBordeauxenprimeurpricesareheavily Wearegrateful toMs. SaraYazjiforvalua bleresearch assistance.Wealsothank thea ttendeesofthe2018 AmericanAssociationofW ineEconomicsAnnualMeeting,Karl Storchmann,and ananonymousreferee fortheirvaluab lecomments. Allremainingerrorsaretheresponsibilityof theauthors. a GoodmanSchoolof Business,Br ockUnive rsity,1812SirIsaac BrockWay, St.Catharines,ONL2S3A1, Canada,andCool ClimateOenolo gyandV iticultureInstitute(CCOVI) atBrockUniversity; e-mail: dcyr@brocku.ca(correspondingauthor). b GoodmanSchoolofBusiness ,BrockUniversity, 1812SirIsaacBrockW ay,St.Ca tharines,ONL2S3A1, Canada,and CoolClimate Oenologyand ViticultureInstitute(CCOVI) atBrockUniv ersity;e-mail: lkwong@brocku.ca. c GoodmanSchoolofBusiness ,Brock University, 1812SirIsaacBrockW ay,St.Ca tharines,ONL2S3A1,

Canada;e-mail:lsun@brocku.ca.

JournalofWineEconomics ,Volume 14,Number2,2019,Pages 133-144 doi:10.1017/jwe.2019.4

©American AssociationofWineEcono mists,2019

dependentoncritics'barrelratingsdespitethe manyuncertaintiesfrom thecontin- uedaging, blending,andbottlingprocess .Inparticular ,it haslongbeenknowntha t barrelscoresfromtheprestigious winecriticR obertParkerJr .have hadasigni!cant in"uenceonthe initialenprimeurpriceoff eringsbychateaux.Indeed,Parker hasbeenlar gely viewedastheauthorityonBordeaux enprimeurwineswithhis scoresandpalatehavinga dominatingin "uencefor nearlya40-yearperiod. Hisratings,in particular,havebeennotedtoha vea signi!cantimpactonthe releasepriceof thewine (Mendick,Finnigan,and Chazan,2016;Ali,Lec ocq,and

Visser,2010).

Hisreign asthew orld'sleadingwine criticonBordeaux wines,ho wever ,has not beenwithoutsomecontro versy,ha vingbeencriticiz edwithadvocatingstyleover substanceandcr eatinga homogenousworldofhighly-oaked andover -extracted wines.Conversel y,hehasalsobeencreditedwithhavingpushedtheBordeaux wineindustryinto inv estmentsinnew ertechnologyandequipment,resultingin greaterconsistencyover theyears(Millar,2015). InFe bruary2015,Parkerannouncedtha thew ouldnolongerreviewBordeaux winefutures; turningtheresponsibilityov ertohis successorNealMar tin,a Britishwinecritic. Martin'sriseto prominence asawine critichadbeenrelatively quick,havinghisbeginnings asawinebuyerand taster,and wineblo ggercommenc- ingin2003 withthewe bsiteWineJourn al(Mendick,Finnigan, andChazan,2016). Hegained asubstantialfollowing inashort periodoftime,and,consequentl y,was askedbyParker tojointhe publication,TheWineAd vocate ,asa winewriterand criticin2006(L yons, 2015).InA pril2016,Mar tinassumedresponsibilityf orthe reviewofallBordeaux wines,both inbarrel andbottle,for TheWineAdv ocate (Demmond,2016;Pickford, 2016).Howe ver,in2018MartinleftTheWine Advocatetobecomesenior editorfor thewinema gazineVinous,and,consequ ently, Parkerannouncedthatthewinecritic LisaPerr otti-Brownwould assumeresponsi- bilityforallBordeaux winesforTheWineAdv ocate(Parker,2017). Giventhelong-standingin "uenceof Parker ontheBordeauxwineindustry,the informalappointmentofMartinas hissuccessor,and,subsequentl y,Perr otti- Brown,createssomeuncertaintyfor manychateaux,both withr espectto the futurein"uenceofMartin 'sratings andtheirconsistency,orlack thereof,with thatofPark er's.Indeed,thequestionr emainsthat despitethe"passingofthe mantle"onthepar tofPar ker,what willbethe potentialfutureimpactofother long-timewinecriticsonBordeaux wine.The questionhasar oseamongsom e wineindustrywriters astothe futurein "uenceofTheWineAdv ocateandwho willtruly succeedParker(Livsey, 2016;Stav eley,2018). Althoughthepast in"uenceofPar ker'spalate andpreferencesmaydiminish withtime, ithashadasigni!cantimpactonmany producers interms oftheir choiceswithrespect towinepr oduction,andon thepreferences ofconsumersas evidencedbyhis impactonprices .Hence, reasonabl equestions ariseastothe similaritiesofthera tingsofvarious winecritics ,includingMartin,withtha tof

134WhoWillReplace Park er?

Parker's.Cyr,Kw ong,andSun(2017a)usedcopu lafunctionmodelling toexamine thebivaria tedistributionalrelationshipbetweenPark erandMartin'swinera tings overtheperiodof2010 -2012when bothexpertsindependentl yrat edenprimeur wines.The!ndingsindicate signi!cantuppertail dependenceinter msofPar ker's andMartin 'sra tingsofleftbankwines, particularlyin theyears2011 and2012. However,intermsofrightbankwines,they noteachanging patterninthebiv ariate relationshipofParkerand Martinra tingsoverthethree-yearperiod,witha lackof uppertaildepen dencein2011 and2012andlowercor relation overall. Itishence speculatedthatMartinma yhavebegun todev elophisownidiosyncra ticpreferences overthattimeperiod. Thisisacriticalissuegiv enthekno wnprefer enceofPar ker andhisin "uenceinter msofri ghtbankwines. Theexten tofnonlinearrelationshipbetweenthera tingsofa winera terandthatof Parker'sisimportant astherela tionshipbetween Parker 'spastra tingsand en primeurpriceshav ebeenshowntobenonlinearinna ture.Noparuma pa,Kazaz, andWe bster(2015),for example,providesa visualindicationofthenonlin earity inther elationshipbetween Parkerbarrelratingsandenprimeurpriceswhile Cyr, Kwong,andSun(2017b)explores thenatureofthisrela tionshipthr oughcopula functionmodelling.Signi !cantupper taildependenceisnotedin termsof Parker's ratingsandprices, implyingtha ttheimpactofPar ker'sratings onenprimeur priceshave beengreaterat theupperechel onofscores. Thecurrentstud yexpands theresultsregarding ParkerandMartin byanal yzing theratings ofanumberofother enprimeurwinecritics. Theobjectiveofthestud yis toidentify whichprominent enprimeurwinecritichas shown thegrea testconsis- tencyinter msofra tingswiththoseofPark er,both intermsofo verallcorrela tion, andalsoin terms ofthenonlinear relationshipexpressedthr oughcopulafunction modelling.SectionII describestheda taemplo yedandthe winecritic sexamined, whileSectionIIIpr ovidesan overview ofthemethodologyandtheresults .Section

IVconcludes.

II.WineCritics RatingData

availablefromtheAmsterdamwinese llersBolome yWijnimport (www.bordoverview. com).Theda tacov erstheperiodfrom2004 onward,withParker'sratings available upto andincluding2012. Notall winecritics ratedenprimeurwinesev eryyear throughoutthatperiodand,insome cases,notalways winesfr omboththe right andleftbanks .Howe ver,thedata allowsforafairlyrobustanal ysisofthe ratings ofan umberofk eyBordeauxwinecriticsincludingJ ancisR obinson,James Sucking,and ReneGa brielalongwithwinecriticsfr omtheDecanterwinema gazine, LaRevue duVindeFrance ,andthe Dutchwinema gazinePerswijn.Thera tingsof theEnglishwine criticJ aneAnsonar ealsoa vailableforcomparison withthat ofPark er,butonlyfromtheperiod of2006onward.Table1providesabrief

DonCyr, LesterKwongandLing Sun135

summaryoftheprominent enprimeur winecriticsand theirratings scales,w hile Table2providesthenumberofenprimeurwinesjointly ratedbybothPark erand speci!cwinecritics inthecase ofboththe rightandleft bank.

III.Methodologyand Results

Toexplorethe relationshipbetweenthera tingsofvarious criticsandthatofParker , weemploy copulafunctionmodelling.Copulafunction modellingpro videsa prac- ticalwayofcha racterizingamultivariate distribution. Itsstrengthliesintha titcan capturebasicnonlinearr elationships, commonlyreferredto astaildependence, whicharefrequen tlyo verlookedbymethodsthatimplicitlyassumelinearity over therangeof themulti variatedistrib ution,andcan beemployedeveninthecase ofsmallda tasets. Italsohastheaddedad vantageofbeing ableto dealimplicitly

Table1

ProminentEnPrimeurWineRatersOther ThanR obertPark erandNeal Martin

EnPrimeurWine RatersRating Scale

*Decanter(De):Englishwinema gazine. Before2015 thewineswer etasted byStevenSpurrier ,James

Lawther,andBeverleyBlanning.

Priorto2007 employeda1 to5 ratingscale;

2007-2014a 10-20scale; 2015onwar dsa

100-pointscale .

*MichelBettane &ThierryDesseauv e(B&D):French winecriticspub lishinginTAST.

Ratingscalefrom10to20.

*Perswijn(PW):Dutchwinema gazine,ra tingsby

RonalddeGroot.

1to5 scale.

**RenéGabriel(RG):Swisswinecritic publishingin

WeinWisser.Nora tingspost2015

10to20 scale.

inthe Americanma gazineWineSpectator upto andincludingtheBordeaux2009vintage .Post2009 hepublishes ratingsonthewe bsiteJamesSuckling. com.

Scaleof75 to100.

*JancisRobinson(JR):Britishwinecritic whowrites acolumnf ortheFinancialTimes,andf orher websiteJancisRobinson.com.

Scaleof12 to20.

*JaneAnson(JA):Englishwinejournal istwriting for theDecantermagazineandpublishingon her websiteNewBordeaux .Becamethe raterf or

Decanterafter2015.

Scaleof75 to100.

*LaRevue duVindeFrance (RVF):Frenchwine magazine.ThewinesaretastedbyOli vierPoels ,

HélèneDurand,and PhilippeMaurange .

Scalefrom 10to20.

**LePoint (LeP):Frenchmagazine.Theleading tasterisJ acquesDupont.

Scalefrom 10to20.

*JeffLeve(JL):Americanwinecriticpublishing on hiswebs iteTheWineCellarInsider.com.

Scalefrom 75to100.

*Continuestorate enprimeurwines. **Doesnot appearto continueto rateenprimeurwines.

136WhoWillReplace Par ker?

withtheissue ofdiffer entwinera tingscales. AlthoughMartinandParkeremployed thesamera tingscale, manyotherraters( asnotedinTable1)hav enotand,insome cases(Decanter),have changedratingscalesover time.

A.CopulaFunction Methodology

Copulafunctions originatefromthew orkofSklar(1959)where Sklar'sTheorem essentiallyshowsthat anymultivariate distributioncanbee xpressedintermsof itsunivaria temarginaldistributionfunctionsalongwitha copulafunctionwhich describesthe dependencestructurebetween thevariables .Thecopula isam ultivar - iateprobabilitydistrib utionforwhichthemarginalpr obabilitydistributionof each variableisuniform.Akeyelement ofSklar'sTheorem isthat inmodellinga multi- variatedistribution,itallows fortheseparationof the modellingoftheindividual univariatemarginaldistributionsandtha tofthedependencestructure captured bythecopula function.This isanimportan telementw hencomparingthe relation- shipbetweenthe ratingsof twowine raterswhichemplo ydifferent ratingscales,or varyovertime ,asthewineratingsare!rstconv ertedtouniformvariates before

Table2

NumberofEnPrimeurWinesJointly RatedbyVariousWineRaters andRobert Park er

RightBank

Year*DE*B&D*PW**RG *JSJR*J A*RVF **LeP*JL

2005114107 13211673 98

20069694 9712590 9279

20078698 10312683 11794

2008114134 11614617 1196876

2009147151 155155129 10887

2010122124 140115113 4381

201113099 14010374 77

2012127118 4910858 46

2005-2012936584 657832 641897351 61398

LeftBank

Year*DE*B&D*PW**RG *JSJR*J A*RVF **LeP*JL

2005138139 14287113

200611098 998783

20079793 7998 86

2008120113 2912484

2009138138 13988

2010123115 10812484 88

2011108102 10085100

2012119103 3211373

2005-2012953624 624927670 113188

*Continuestorateenprimeurwines. **Doesnotap pearto continuetorateenprimeurwines.

DonCyr, LesterKwongandLing Sun137

identifyingthebest!ttingcopulafuncti ons.Cyr ,Kwong,andSun(2017b)pro videsa succinctsummaryofthe copulafunctionmethodology employedto capturethe rela- tionshipbetweenParker ratings andenprimeur prices. Althoughthen umberofcopula functionsistheoreticallyin!nite,therearepara- metriccopulasw hichcanca pturetypicaldependence structures betweentwocovar- iates,withknownparameterstha tcanbe estimated.Theseparametricf ormsthen allowtheclassi!cationofcopulafunctions intofamilies;tw oofparticular impor- tancearetheellipticalandtheArchimedeanfamilies .Typicalcopulas oftheelliptical familyfrequentlyemployed aretheGaussianornor malcopulaandtheStudent T copula.However, theyarelimitedtoradialsymmetryrestrictingtheirabilityto fullycapture nonlinear,andparticularlyasymmetric,taildependencebetween covariates. Fortunately,theArchimedeanfamilyofcopulasincludessomerela tivel ysimple closedforms withdependenceparametersthatcaptureasymm etrictaildependence inatracta blewa y.CommonformsoftheAr chimedeanfamilyemployedarethe Gumbel,Clayton,andF rankcopulas.TheCla ytoncopula,f orexample, enables themodellingof greater correlationor taildependenceinthelowervalues ofthe covariates,whiletheGumbelcopulacapturestaildependence inthehighervalues. Itisalso possible,thr oughinv ersionofeither,or bothofthetwo uniformcovariates toca ptureotherformsof asymmetrictail dependence.Throughinversionofboth uniformcovariates,for example,theClaytoncopulacanalsobeemployedto captureuppertaildependence. TheFrank copulacaptures greatercorrelation in themiddle ofthebiv ariatedistrib utionasopposed tothetails.

Upper(!

U )andlo wer( ! L )taildepen dencemeasures canfrequentlybe derived fromthecopulaparameters aswell as,in limitedcases,therela tionshiptostandard dependencemeasuressuchas Kendall'stauand Spearman'srho(Cherub ini, betweenthecopula dependence parameter"(ascalarin thecaseof bivariate anal- ysis)for thestandardcopulafunctionsdiscussed. Notethat withan inversio nofthequotesdbs_dbs46.pdfusesText_46

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