Recommendations for National Risk Assessment for Disaster Risk
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Recommendations for
National Risk Assessment for Disaster
Risk Management in EU
Where Science and Policy
MeetVersion 1
2021EUR 30596 EN
)?POCLȩ.ÓJH?LĒCIȩGL?P?ȩ!?Q?HSQȩ4?JJCQ
ȩ+ÓLRQCPP?Rȩ+?PļLȩ$CPPCP
ȩ2ÓOıQȩPRCQ-Vivancos, Roberto Boca,
Costanza Bonadonna, Alfredo Branco, Wesley Campanharo, Alfred De Jager, Daniele de Rigo, FrancescoDottori, Tracy Durrant Houston, Christine Estreguil, Davide Ferrari, Corine Frischknecht, Luca Galbusera, Blanca
García Puerta, Georgios Giannopoulos, Serkan Girgin, Richard Gowland, Rosana Grecchi, Miguel Angel
Hernandez Ceballos, Giorgia Iurlaro, Georgios Kambourakis, Vasileios Karlos, Elisabeth Krausmann, Martin
Larcher, Anne Sophie Lequarre, Giorgio Liberta, Susan C. Loughlin, Pieralberto Maianti, Domenico Mangione,
Alexandra Marques, Scira Menoni, Milagros Montero Prieto, Gustavo Naumann, Amos Necci, Duarte Oom, Hans
Pfieffer, Marine Robuchon, Peter Salamon, Marco Sangiorgi, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Maria Luísa Sousa,
Marianthi Theocharidou, Georgios Theodoridis, Cristina Trueba Alonso, Georgios Tsionis, Juergen V.Vogt,
Maureen Wood
This publication is a 1AGCLACȩMÓPȩ.ÓJGAPȩPCNÓPRȩ@PȩRŃCȩ(ÓGLRȩ0CQC?PAŃȩ!CLRPCȩ(0!
service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does
not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the
Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying
the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the
referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or
concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Contact information
H?OCDȩ)?POCLȩ.ÓJH?LĒCI
Address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), JRC.E.1, Via E. Fermi, 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy
Email: karmen.poljansek@ec.europa.eu
Tel.: +39 0332 783650
EU Science Hub
https://ec.europa.eu/jrcJRC123585
EUR 30596 EN
PDF ISBN 978-92-76-30256-8 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/80545 Print ISBN 978-92-76-30257-5 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/43449 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021© European Union, 2021
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material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2021, unless otherwise specifiedHow to cite this report: Poljansek, K., Casajus Valles, A., Marin Ferrer, M., Artes Vivancos, T., Boca, R., Bonadonna, C., Branco, A.,
Campanharo, W., De Jager, A., De Rigo, D., Dottori, F., Durrant Houston, T., Estreguil, C., Ferrari, D., Frischknecht, C., Galbusera, L., Garcia
Puerta, B., Giannopoulos, G., Girgin, S., Gowland, R., Grecchi, R., Hernandez Ceballos, M.A., Iurlaro, G., Kambourakis, G., Karlos, V.,
Krausmann, E., Larcher, M., Lequarre, A.S., Liberta`, G., Loughlin, S.C., Maianti, P., Mangione, D., Marques, A., Menoni, S., Montero Prieto, M.,
Naumann, G., Jacome Felix Oom, D., Pfieffer, H., Robuchon, M., Necci, A., Salamon, P., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Sangiorgi, M., Raposo De M. Do
N. E S. De Sotto Mayor, M.L., Theocharidou, M., Trueba Alonso, C., Theodoridis, G., Tsionis, G., Vogt, J. and Wood, M., Recommendations for
National Risk Assessment for Disaster Risk Management in EU: Where Science and Policy Meet, Version 1, EUR 30596 EN, Publications
Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-30256-8, doi:10.2760/80545, JRC123585.
iContents
Contents ................................................................................................................................... i
Abstract ................................................................................................................................... 8
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................... 9
Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 13
1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 16
1.1 From Version 0 to Version 1 ............................................................................................ 18
1.1.1 The purpose, content and outcome of Version 0 ......................................................... 18
1.1.2 The purpose and objectives of Version 1 ................................................................... 19
1.2 The structure of the Report ............................................................................................. 19
2 Towards a better understanding of disaster risks in the EU: an evolution of reporting process .............. 21
2.1 The beginnings of an overall European approach to the prevention of disasters ......................... 21
2.2 First steps of the reporting process and lessons learned ....................................................... 22
2.3 Reporting process today ................................................................................................. 24
3 National Risk Assessment...................................................................................................... 27
3.1 The purpose and objectives of national risk assessment process ............................................. 27
3.2 Governance of National Risk Assessment Process ................................................................ 27
3.3 ISO 31010 format of National Risk Assessment Process ....................................................... 28
3.3.1 Context of National Risk Assessment ....................................................................... 29
3.3.2 Risk Identification ................................................................................................ 30
3.3.2.1 Scenario Building .......................................................................................... 32
3.3.3 Risk Analysis....................................................................................................... 32
3.3.4 Risk Evaluation.................................................................................................... 34
3.3.5 Risk Treatments .................................................................................................. 35
3.4 Key Messages .............................................................................................................. 36
4 Risk Management Capability Assessment ................................................................................. 37
4.1 The purpose and objectives of Risk Management Capability Assessment .................................. 37
4.2 A link between capability assessment and capability development .......................................... 38
4.3 Implementation of integrated DRM ................................................................................... 39
4.3.1 Knowing the process ............................................................................................ 39
4.3.2 Identifying the capabilities ..................................................................................... 43
4.4 Risk Management Assessment methodology ...................................................................... 44
4.5 Key messages.............................................................................................................. 47
5 Linking the NRA and RMCA .................................................................................................... 49
6 Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management ......................................................................... 52
6.1 EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change ..................................................................... 52
6.2 Synergies among the two processes; CCA and DRR strategies................................................. 54
7 Introduction to contributions .................................................................................................. 58
ii8 Main findings from contributions and conclusions ....................................................................... 61
8.1 Main findings from contributions...................................................................................... 61
8.2 Overall conclusion ......................................................................................................... 62
9 References ......................................................................................................................... 65
10 Floods ............................................................................................................................... 70
10.1 Context ...................................................................................................................... 70
10.1.1 Legal framework of flood risk assessment in the European Union .................................. 70
10.2 Risk identification ......................................................................................................... 71
10.2.1 Hazard .............................................................................................................. 72
10.2.2 Exposure............................................................................................................ 74
10.2.3 Vulnerability ....................................................................................................... 75
10.2.4 Coping capacity ................................................................................................... 76
10.3 Risk analysis ................................................................................................................ 76
10.4 Risk evaluation ............................................................................................................. 77
10.5 Gaps and challenges ..................................................................................................... 78
10.6 References .................................................................................................................. 79
11 Droughts ........................................................................................................................... 81
11.1 Context of drought risk assessment .................................................................................. 81
11.2 Risk Identification ......................................................................................................... 81
11.3 Drought risk analysis and characterization ......................................................................... 82
11.3.1 Hazard characterization ........................................................................................ 83
11.3.2 Exposure identification.......................................................................................... 83
11.3.3 Vulnerability identification ..................................................................................... 83
11.4 Risk identification in the context of climate change .............................................................. 85
11.5 Risk Treatment ............................................................................................................. 86
11.5.1 Organizational issues ........................................................................................... 87
11.5.2 Short Term Actions, during and immediately after the emergency .................................. 87
11.5.3 Long-term actions, National Strategy ....................................................................... 88
11.5.4 Quantification of the actions .................................................................................. 88
11.6 Gaps and challenges ..................................................................................................... 90
11.7 References .................................................................................................................. 91
12 Wildfires ............................................................................................................................ 93
12.1 Context of Risk Assessment. Introduction ........................................................................... 93
12.2 Risk identification ......................................................................................................... 93
12.2.1 Wildfire Danger ................................................................................................... 94
12.2.2 Wildfire ignitions ................................................................................................. 95
12.2.3 Fire behavior ...................................................................................................... 95
12.2.4 Fuel moisture ..................................................................................................... 95
12.2.5 Fuel Types ......................................................................................................... 97
iii12.2.6 Slope ................................................................................................................ 98
12.2.7 Vulnerability ....................................................................................................... 99
12.2.8 People ............................................................................................................... 99
12.2.9 Ecological value ................................................................................................ 100
12.2.10 Socioeconomic value .......................................................................................... 101
12.3 Risk analysis .............................................................................................................. 102
12.4 Wildfire risk and climate change .................................................................................... 102
12.5 Gaps and challenges/Conclusions ................................................................................... 103
12.6 References ................................................................................................................ 103
13 Biodiversity loss ................................................................................................................ 106
13.1 Context of Risk Assessment/Introduction .......................................................................... 106
13.2 Risk identification ....................................................................................................... 108
13.2.1 Past trends in biodiversity and NCPs ...................................................................... 108
13.2.2 Risk drivers, exposure and capacities ..................................................................... 111
13.3 Risk analysis .............................................................................................................. 113
13.4 Risk Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 116
13.5 Risk treatment ........................................................................................................... 116
13.5.1 Policy responses to biodiversity loss ...................................................................... 116
13.5.2 Socio-economic responses to biodiversity loss ......................................................... 117
13.6 Gaps and Challenges/Conclusion .................................................................................... 117
13.7 References ................................................................................................................ 118
14 Earthquakes ..................................................................................................................... 120
14.1 Context of National Risk Assessment .............................................................................. 120
14.2 Risk identification ....................................................................................................... 120
14.2.1 Potential impact of earthquakes and its cause ......................................................... 120
14.2.2 Seismic hazard ................................................................................................. 121
14.2.3 Exposure and vulnerability ................................................................................... 123
14.2.4 Scenario-building process .................................................................................... 124
14.3 Risk analysis .............................................................................................................. 124
14.3.1 Damage assessment .......................................................................................... 124
14.3.2 Damage-to-loss models ...................................................................................... 125
14.3.3 Estimation of casualties ...................................................................................... 125
14.3.4 Estimation of shelter needs ................................................................................. 125
14.3.5 Probabilistic seismic risk analysis .......................................................................... 125
14.3.6 Tools for seismic risk analysis .............................................................................. 125
14.3.7 Recent research ................................................................................................ 126
14.3.8 Examples of seismic risk assessment studies .......................................................... 127
14.4 Risk evaluation ........................................................................................................... 128
14.5 Risk treatment ........................................................................................................... 129
iv14.6 Gaps and challenges ................................................................................................... 130
14.7 References ................................................................................................................ 131
15 Volcano eruptions .............................................................................................................. 135
15.1 Context of Risk Assessment .......................................................................................... 135
15.2 Risk identification ....................................................................................................... 136
15.2.1 Volcanic hazards ............................................................................................... 136
15.2.2 Vulnerability aspects .......................................................................................... 137
15.3 Risk analysis .............................................................................................................. 138
15.4 Risk evaluation ........................................................................................................... 140
15.5 Risk treatment ........................................................................................................... 141
15.6 Gaps and challenges/conclusions ................................................................................... 142
15.7 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 143
15.8 References ................................................................................................................ 143
16 Biological disasters ............................................................................................................ 149
16.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 149
16.2 Human epidemics ....................................................................................................... 149
16.2.1 Risk identification and the policy context ................................................................ 149
16.2.1.1 International Public Health policies ................................................................. 149
16.2.1.2 EU policies controlling human communicable diseases ........................................ 150
16.2.2 Risk analysis and risk evaluation ........................................................................... 150
16.2.3 Risk Assessment methodology for human diseases ................................................... 151
16.2.4 Risk Treatment .................................................................................................. 154
16.3 Animal diseases ......................................................................................................... 155
16.3.1 Risk identification and the policy context ................................................................ 155
16.3.1.1 International Animal Health policies ................................................................ 155
16.3.1.2 EU policies controlling animal diseases ............................................................ 156
16.3.2 Risk analysis and risk evaluation ........................................................................... 156
16.3.3 Risk treatment .................................................................................................. 157
16.4 High-security level biological laboratories ........................................................................ 158
16.4.1 Risk identification and the policy context ................................................................ 158
16.4.1.1 International conventions and agreements on biosecurity .................................... 158
16.4.1.2 EU policies on biosafety and biosecurity .......................................................... 158
16.4.2 Risk analysis and risk evaluation ........................................................................... 158
16.5 References ................................................................................................................ 159
17 Natech accidents ............................................................................................................... 161
17.1 Risk Assessment Context .............................................................................................. 161
17.2 Risk Identification ....................................................................................................... 163
17.3 Risk analysis .............................................................................................................. 164
17.4 Risk evaluation ........................................................................................................... 167
v17.5 Good Practices ........................................................................................................... 168
17.6 Gaps and Challenges ................................................................................................... 169
17.7 References ................................................................................................................ 169
18 Chemical Accidents ............................................................................................................ 172
18.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 172
18.2 Prevention and mitigation of chemical releases ................................................................. 172
18.3 Principles of effective risk assessment and management .................................................... 174
18.4 Performing a risk assessment ....................................................................................... 174
18.5 Selecting accident scenarios for the risk assessment .......................................................... 175
18.5.1 Hazard identification (what can go wrong) .............................................................. 176
18.5.2 Selecting the accident scenarios (How likely is it that it will happen and if it does happen, what
are the consequences?) .................................................................................................. 176
18.6 Evaluating the consequence analysis .............................................................................. 178
18.6.1 Evaluating impacts and severity ........................................................................... 178
18.6.2 Human health effect evaluation............................................................................ 179
18.6.3 Consequence and risk assessment modelling tools ................................................... 181
18.7 Presenting the risk assessment outcome for decision-making .............................................. 181
18.8 Making decisions based on the risk assessment ................................................................ 183
18.9 References ................................................................................................................ 184
19 Nuclear accidents .............................................................................................................. 185
19.1 Context .................................................................................................................... 185
19.2 Risk identification ....................................................................................................... 185
19.3 Risk Analysis .............................................................................................................. 186
19.4 Risk Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 188
19.5 Risk Treatment ........................................................................................................... 189
19.6 Gaps and challenges ................................................................................................... 192
19.7 References ................................................................................................................ 193
20 Terrorist attacks ................................................................................................................ 196
20.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 196
20.2 Lessons learned from prior terrorist attacks ..................................................................... 197
20.3 Risk assessment ......................................................................................................... 199
20.3.1 Threat identification ........................................................................................... 200
20.3.1.1 Threat identification on national level.............................................................. 200
20.3.1.2 Threat identification on local level .................................................................. 202
20.3.2 Risk analysis ..................................................................................................... 202
20.3.2.1 Exposed asset identification .......................................................................... 202
20.3.2.2 Vulnerability identification ............................................................................ 203
20.3.2.3 Likelihood and consequences assessment ........................................................ 204
20.3.3 Risk evaluation.................................................................................................. 206
vi20.4 Key messages and challenges ....................................................................................... 207
20.5 References ................................................................................................................ 208
21 Critical infrastructure disruptions .......................................................................................... 209
21.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 209
21.2 Policy background ....................................................................................................... 210
21.3 Risk assessment ......................................................................................................... 213
21.3.1 Defining the scope ............................................................................................. 213
21.3.2 Risk Identification .............................................................................................. 214
21.3.3 Risk Analysis..................................................................................................... 214
21.3.4 Risk evaluation.................................................................................................. 216
Figure 57: ........................................................................................................................ 217
21.4 Frameworks, methodologies and tools ............................................................................ 217
21.4.1 Frameworks ..................................................................................................... 218
21.4.2 Methodologies .................................................................................................. 222
21.4.3 Tools .............................................................................................................. 223
21.5 Risk treatment ........................................................................................................... 227
21.6 Gaps and Challenges ................................................................................................... 228
22 Cybersecurity threats ......................................................................................................... 230
22.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 230
22.2 Context establishment ................................................................................................. 232
22.3 Risk identification ....................................................................................................... 233
22.4 Risk Analysis .............................................................................................................. 240
22.5 Risk evaluation ........................................................................................................... 241
22.6 Risk treatment ........................................................................................................... 242
22.7 Key thoughts and Challenges ........................................................................................ 244
22.8 EU and International cybersecurity and cyber risk policy landscape ........................................ 248
22.8.1 EU landscape .................................................................................................... 249
22.8.2 International landscape....................................................................................... 250
22.8.3 Others ............................................................................................................. 252
22.9 References ................................................................................................................ 252
23 Hybrid Threats .................................................................................................................. 260
23.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 260
23.2 The political landscape and the respective conceptual model ............................................... 261
23.3 Examples of hybrid activity ........................................................................................... 262
23.4 Assessing vulnerabilities: what to look for? ....................................................................... 263
23.5 Changing paradigm of risk management: vulnerabilities self-assessment methodology ............. 264
23.6 Beyond vulnerabilities assessment: fostering resilience ....................................................... 266
23.7 Future Challenges in the domain of hybrid threats ............................................................. 267
23.8 References ................................................................................................................ 267
viiList of boxes ......................................................................................................................... 269
List of figures ....................................................................................................................... 270
List of tables ......................................................................................................................... 273
8Abstract
Union Civil Protection Mechanism Decision No 1313/2013/EU requires EU Member States and UCPMparticipating states to report to the Commission on their disaster risk management activities to support
formulating an EU risk management policy that would complement and enhance the national ones. The aim
of this report is to suppoPRȩRŃCȩSQCȩÓMȩRŃCȩLCUȩ|Reporting Guidelines on Disaster Risk Management, Art.
6(1)d of Decision No.1313/2013/EU,} (2019/C 428/07) by relevant national authorities.
different aspects of the national risk assessment process.The European Commission Joint Research Centre joins national, regional and global efforts to acquire better
risk governance structure through evidences, science and knowledge management. Risk governance facilitates
policy cycle for the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Risk Assessment is positioned at
the heart of the policy cycle and provides evidence for DRM planning and the implementation of prevention
and preparedness measures.This report explains the purpose and objective of each step of the reporting to give meaning and motivation
to demanding risk governance processes. It collects the contributions of fourteen expert teams thatprepared short step by step description of disaster risk assessment approaches specific for the chosen
hazard/asset usable in the context of a national risk assessment exercise and addressed national risk
assessment capability to be further developed in order to bring the evidence to next level A special focus is
dedicated to capability needed to tackle climate change. The risks covered are of natural, anthropogenic and
socio-natural origin: floods, droughts, wildfires, biodiversity loss, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, biological
disasters, Natech accidents, chemical accidents, nuclear accidents, terrorist attacks, critical infrastructure
disruptions, cybersecurity and hybrid threats. 9Acknowledgement
Editors
Karmen Poljansek Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Ainara Casajus Valles Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Montserrat Marin Ferrer Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, ITAuthors of Chapters 1-9
Karmen Poljansek Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Ainara Casajus Valles Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Montserrat Marin Ferrer Y European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, ITAuthors of Chapters 10-23
Chapter 10: FLOODS
Francesco Dottori, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Peter Salamon, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, ITChapter 11: DROUGHTS
Alfred De Jager, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Gustavo Naumann, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Juergen V. Vogt, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, ITChapter 12: WILDFIRES
Duarte Oom, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Daniele de Rigo, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Tomás Artes-Vivancos, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Roberto Boca, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Alfredo Branco, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Wesley Campanharo, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Rosana Grecchi, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Tracy Durrant Houston, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Davide Ferrari, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Giorgio Liberta, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Pieralberto Maianti, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Hans Pfieffer, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT 10Chapter 13: BIODIVERSITY LOSS
Marine Robuchon, European Commission, JRC.D.6 Knowledge for Sustainable Development and FoodSecurity, Ispra, IT
Christine Estreguil, European Commission, JRC.D.6 Knowledge for Sustainable Development and FoodSecurity, Ispra, IT
Alexandra Marques, European Commission, JRC.D.3 Land Resources Unit, Ispra, ITChapter 14: EARTHQUAKES
Maria Luísa Sousa, European Commission, JRC.E.4 Safety and Security of Buildings, Ispra, IT Georgios Tsionis, European Commission, JRC.E.4 Safety and Security of Buildings, Ispra, ITChapter 15: VOLCANO ERUPTIONS
Costanza Bonadonna, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, CH, Corine Frischknecht Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, CH,Susan C. Loughlin, British Geological Survey, UK,
Domenico Mangione, National Civil Protection Department, ITScira Menoni, Department of Architecture, Built Environment and Construction Engineering, Politecnico di
Milano, IT
Chapter 16: BIOLOGICAL DISASTERS
Anne Sophie Lequarre, European Commission, JRC.E.7 Knowledge for Security and Migration, Brussels, BE
Chapter 17: NATECH ACCIDENTS
Serkan Girgin, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT Amos Necci, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT Elisabeth Krausmann, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, ITChapter 18: CHEMICAL ACCIDENTS
Maureen Wood, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT Richard Gowland, an independent consultant and expert in process safety, Peterborough, UKChapter 19: NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS
Miguel Angel Hernandez Ceballos, European Commission, JRC.G.10 Knowledge for Nuclear Security andSafety Unit, Ispra, IT
Cristina Trueba Alonso, Research Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT), Department of
Environment, Radiation Protection of Public and Environment Unit, Madrid, ES Milagros Montero Prieto, Research Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT), Department of Environment, Radiation Protection of Public and Environment Unit, Madrid, ES Giorgia Iurlaro, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Radiation Protection Institute, Ispra, ITMarco Sangiorgi, European Commission, JRC.G.10 Knowledge for Nuclear Security and Safety Unit, Ispra, IT
11Blanca García Puerta, Research Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT), Department of
Environment, Radiation Protection of Public and Environment Unit, Madrid, ESChapter 20: TERRORIST ATTACKS
Martin Larcher, European Commission, JRC.E.4 Safety and Security of Buildings, Ispra, IT Vasileios Karlos, European Commission, JRC.E.4 Safety and Security of Buildings, Ispra, ITChapter 21: CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DISRUPTIONS
Marianthi Theocharidou, European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), Network and InformationSecurity, Athens, GR
Luca Galbusera, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, ITGeorgios Giannopoulos, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT
Chapter 22: CYBERSECURITY THREATS
Georgios Kambourakis, European CommissGÓL
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Chapter 23: HYBRID THREATS
Georgios Giannopoulos, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT
Georgios Theodoridis, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT Marianthi Theocharidou, European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), Network and InformationSecurity, Athens, GR
Luca Galbusera, European Commission, JRC.E.2 Technology Innovation in Security Unit, Ispra, IT Disaster Risk Management in EU: Approaches for Identifying, Analysing and EvaluatingRisks (Poljanćek et. al, 2019)
Elisa Vargas Amelin, European Commission, ENV.C.1 Clean Water, Brussels, BEHelen Crowley, EUCENTRE, Pavia, IT
Silvia Dimova, European Commission, JRC.E.4 Safety and Security of Buildings, Ispra, IT Luc Feyen, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Morten Lomholt Korslund, Danish Emergency Management Agency, Crisis Management Division, Birkerod, DK Leanne Roche, European Commission, ENV.C.1 Clean Water, Brussels, BE Fabio Taucer, JRC.A.5 Scientific Development, Brussels, BE 12 Disaster Risk Management in EU: Where Science and Policy Meet Christofer Ahlgren, European Commission, CLIMA.A.3 Adaptation to Climate Change, Brussels, BE Paulo Barbosa, European Commission, JRC.E.1 Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, IT Christina Brailescu, European Commission, ENV.D.1 Land Use & Management, Brussels, BELaura Indriliunaite, European Commission, ECHO.B.2 Prevention and Disaster Risk Management, Brussels,
BE Ioannis Kavvadas, European Commission, ENV.C.1 Clean Water, Brussels, BE 13Executive summary
The European Commission Joint Research Centre joins National, Regional and Global efforts to acquire better risk governance levels through evidences, science and knowledge management. This report isaspects of the national risk assessment process. They are invited to co-develop, with a sequential approach
imposed by the complexity of the task, a reference document that will contribute to filling the gap between
scientific knowledge and their practical usability.Version 0 of this series was focused mainly on how to do National Risk Assessment from the scientific
perspective to provide enough evidences to Risk Managers for better understanding and, hence, managing
risk. In Version 1, the national risk assessment is positioned at the heart of the policy cycle for the
implementation of integrated disaster risk management. This perspective highlights the imperative need for
policy-makers, practitioners and scientists to work hand-in-hand towards a more resilient, and hence sustainable, future.Policy context
Member States are, since 2013 (UCPM Decision No 1313/2013/EU), required to report to the Commissionon their disaster risk management activities to support formulating an EU risk management policy that would
complement and enhance the national ones. The amendment of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) of March 2019 (Decision (EU) 2019/420) introduced new requirements for reporting under Article 6, combining elements of (1) national risk assessment (NRA), (2) risk management capability assessment (RMCA) and (3) information on thepriority prevention and preparedness measures with a focus on (a) key risks with cross-border impacts,
and, where appropriate, (b) low probability risks with a high impact.The purpose of the Version 1 of the Recommendations for NRA for Disaster Risk Management, prepared by 50
scientists, is tÓȩQSNNÓPRȩRŃCȩSQCȩÓMȩRŃCȩLCUȩ|Reporting Guidelines on Disaster Risk Management, Art. 6(1)
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