[PDF] China Consumption Trends 2017 CHINA. CONSUMPTION. TRENDS. OVERVIEW. China

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CHINA

CONSUMPTION

TRENDS

OVERVIEW

China Digital Banking

Report

2017
2

Per capita consumption

in Tier-1 cities is visibly high but several Tier-2 &

Tier-3 cities record high

growth. Rising preference for travel, staying connected, recreation, & buying durable goods

China has rapidly

transitioned from a predominantly lower- middle class society to a middle, upper-middle and

Affluent class society over

past decade

Recent years have

seen rising disposable incomes for high-income

Chinese households,

boosting demand for high value products - A visible shift from mass to premium

700 million plus internet

users in China, bulk of them in urban areas, using 25 hours of internet per week. Beijing,

Shanghai & Guangdong

top in internet penetration, rapid growth across provinces

Rapid rise in use of

smartphones for online shopping and payments over past 5 years. Online retail sales still forms a small part of China's total

E-commerce business,

which is led by business to business (B2B) sector.

SOCIAL

TRENDS

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

PATTERNS ACROSS PROVINCE

AND INCOME CLASSES

China's demographics

- large is beautiful 4 •Note : Millennials are those born in the 1980s & 1990s; Gen Z : Born after 2000s •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

415 mn

Millennials

(30% of population) 79 mn

College

graduates

US$ 606 bn

Online retail

market size

1.39 bn

Population

54% urban

453 mn

Households

1042 mn

Smartphone

subscribers

217 mn

Gen Z (18% of population)

1005 mn

Working age

population

China's rapid transformation from a lower

-middle to a middle, upper middle and Affluent class society

5 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

0102030405060708090100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Income-wise classification of China's Urban households (%)

AffluentUpper MiddleMiddleLower MiddlePoor

A steadily increasing disposable income, albeit at a moderating but robust pace, with wide urban -rural gap

6 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

024681012141618

0

5.00010.00015.00020.00025.00030.000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China Disposable Income Per Capita

China Disposable Income Annual Growth (RHS)

(RMB)(% YoY)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China Urban Disposable Income Per Capita

China Rural Disposable Income Per Capita

(RMB) Recent years have seen a sharp pick up in disposable income of high -income Chinese households

7 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015

Low IncomeLower Middle Income

Middle IncomeUpper Middle Income

High Income

Disposable Income Per Capitaby Urban Household

Income Level(RMB)

5,06,07,08,09,010,011,012,013,0

2014 2015 2016

Low IncomeLower Middle Income

Middle IncomeUpper Middle Income

High Income

Growth of Disposable Income per Capita across Chinese Income

Classes (Annual ,%YoY)

City-wise differences in disposable incomes across

China, with higher growth in lower income cities

8 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

5791113151719

0 10000
20000

3000040000500006000070000

China

Hangzhou

Ningbo

Nanjing

Xiamen

Beijing

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Guangzhou

Jinan

Hohhot

Qingdao

Fuzhou

Changsha

Chengdu

Dalian

Shenyang

Wuhan Hefei

Zhengzhou

Nanchang

Xian

Tianjin

Lanzhou

Changchun

Harbin

Shijiazhuang

Taiyuan

Yinchuan

Nanning

Haikou

Chongqing

City-Wise Avg Annual Disposable Income Per Capita in 2016 (RMB)

10 Yr CAGR City-Wise Avg Annual disposable Income Per Capita (RHS)

Polinómica (10 Yr CAGR City-Wise Avg Annual disposable Income Per Capita (RHS)) (RMB)(% CAGR) Reassuringly, income inequality has broadly been on a declining trend over the past decade

9 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China Gini Coefficient

Rural China leads consumption expenditure per capita growth, pace has moderated but still healthy 10 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics 7,5

6,96,8

5,8

5,55,710

8,6 7,8 0

24681012

2014 2015 2016

Consumption expenditure per capita

China : YoYChina : Urban : YoYChina : Rural : YoY

(%YoY)(%YoY)(%YoY)(%YoY)

Province

-wise consumption expenditure per capita 11 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

0500010000150002000025000300003500040000

Shanghai

Beijing

Tianjin

Zhejiang

Guangdong

Jiangsu

Fujian

Liaoning

Inner Mongolia

Chongqing

Shandong

Hubei Hunan

Ningxia

Jilin

Sichuan

Qinghai

Hainan

Heilongjiang

Shaanxi

Hebei

Xinjiang

Anhui

Jiangxi

Henan

Shanxi

Guangxi

Yunnan

Gansu

Guizhou

Tibet Annual Province-Wise Consumption Expenditure Per Capita in 2016 (RMB)

Per capita consumption in Tier

-1 cities is visibly high but several Tier -2 & Tier-3 cities top in growth terms 12 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

91011121314151617

0 City-Wise Avg Annual Consumption Expenditure Per Capita in 2016 (RMB)

10 Yr CAGR City-Wise Avg Annual Consumption Expenditure Per Capita

Polinómica (10 Yr CAGR City-Wise Avg Annual Consumption Expenditure Per Capita ) (RMB)(% CAGR) Share of food in rural China's per capita consumption basket is declining, offset by higher value purchases 13 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics 1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

FoodClothing

ResidenceHhd facility & service

MedicineTransport & Telecom

Recreation & EducationMiscellaneous

Aggregate

Rural annual per capita consumption expenditure(RMB)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

FoodClothing

ResidenceHhd facility & service

MedicineTransport & Telecom

Recreation & EducationMiscellaneous

Rural annual per capita consumption expenditure

Increasing wallet share of urban Chinese towards

residence, travel, communication, recreation & food 14 •Source: BBVA Research, China National Bureau of Statistics

0500010000150002000025000

1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015

FoodClothing

Household Facility Medicine

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