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NASA Contractor Report 198371

NASA-CR-198371

19960002984

Space-Based Communications Infrastructure

for Developing Countries

Keith Barker, Carl Barnes, and K.M. Price

Space Systems/Loral

Palo Alto, California

August 1995

Prepared for

Lewis Research Center

Under Contract NAS3-25934

National AeronautJcs and

Space Administration

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NF01391

,-'. I~ I

U' i CENTER

-. J' r?Y NASA

VIRGINIA

3 1176014226014

NASA Contract No. NAS3-25934

NASA Contractor Report 198371

LORAL Technical Report No. SS/L-TR01060

Technical Support for

Digital System Technology Development

Final Report for Task Order 4

Space-Based Communications Infrastructure

for Developing Countries

Prepared by

Space Systems/LORAL

3825 Fabian Way

Palo Alto, CA 94303-4606

Program

Manager: Kent M. Price

Major Contributors: Keith Barker

Carl Barnes

Prepared for

Lewis Research Center

Under Contract NAS3-25934

August 1995

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ........................................................................ ................................... 1 List of Figures ........................................................................ ........................................ vii L1st of Tables ........................................................................ .......................................... ix List of Acronyms ........................................................................ ................................... xi Abstract ........................................................................ ................................................... xvii

1. Executive Summary ........................................................................

..................... 1-1

1.1 Background ........................................................................

......................... 1-1

1.2 Statement of Work ........................................................................

............. 1-2

1.3 Organizahon of Report ........................................................................

.... 1-5

1.4 Summary of Results ........................................................................

........... 1-7

1.4.1 Market AnalyslS ........................................................................

. 1-7

1.4.2 Technical Feasibility of NIl Augmentation via Satellites ...... 1-7

1.4.3 Specific Technology Assessments ............................................ 1-8

1.4.3 Financial Analysis .......................................................................

1-11

1.4.4 Recommendations ...................................................................... 1-12

2. Role of Satellites in the NIl and GU ................................................................... 2-1

2.1 Introduction ........................................................................

........................ 2-1

2.2 Definition of NIl and GIl ........................................................................

.. 2-3

2.3 Roles of Satellites in the NIl and GIl ....................................................... 2-7

3. Case Study -China ........................................................................

...................... 3-1

3.1 Market Scope and Definition ................................................................... 3-1

3.2 Market Segmentation ........................................................................

........ 3-1

3.3 Market Demand Changes and Trends ................................................... 3-2

3.3.1 Telecommunications Goals and Plans ..................................... 3-2

3.3.2 Current

Progress Towards Goals ............................................ 3-3

3.3.3 Overall Characteristics of the Demand for

Telecommunicahon Services ..................................................... 3-5

3 3.4 Demand for Satellites ................................................................. 3-7

3.3.5 Applications for Satellites ..........................................................

3-9

3.3.6 Obstacles to Progress .................................................................. 3-9

3.4 Survey of Chma's Satellites ...................................................................... 3-10

3.5 Market Share and Sales ........................................................................

..... 3-15

3.6 Conclusions ........................................................................

......................... 3-15

3.6.1 General Telecommunications Market ...................................... 3-15

3.6.2 Satellite Market Evolution ......................................................... 3-16

3.6.3 U. S. Market Share and Forecast ............................................... 3-17

4. Case Study -Brazil ........................................................................

...................... 4-1

4.1 Current Telecommunications Environment in Brazil ........................ ..4-1

4.1.1 Telephony (including cellular} ................................................ ..4-1

4.1.2 TV and Entertainment ................................................................ 4-2

4.1.3 Data Services ........................................................................

........ 4-2

4.1.4 Advanced Services ...................................................................... 4-2

4.2 Trends in Telecommunications in Brazil ................................................ 4-3

4.2.1 Satellites ........................................................................

................ 4-4

4.2.2 Satellite Demand Forecast ......................................................... 4-6

4.3 Country Overview -Brazil .......................................................................

4-8

4.3.1 Brazil's Economic Importance ................................................ ..4-8

4.3.2 General Background ................................................................... 4-8

4.3.3 History ........................................................................

4-11

4.3.4 Global Trade ........................................................................

........ 4-12

4.3.5 Trends in Industrial Development .......................................... .4-12

4.3.6 Brazil's Space Program ............................................................ ..4-14

4.3.7 Role of Government ................................................................... 4-14

4.3.8 Recent Government Actions .................................................... .4-14

4.3.9 1988 Constitution ........................................................................

4-15

4.3.10 Marketing Considerations ........................................................ .4-16

4.4 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................... 4-19

5. Case Study -Mexico ........................................................................

.................... 5-1

5.1 Current Telecommunications Environment m Mexico ........................ 5-1

5.1.1 Telephony ........................................................................

............ 5-1

5.1.2 TV and Entertainment ................................................................ 5-2

5.1.3 Data Services ........................................................................

........ 5-3

5.1.4 Advanced Services ...................................................................... 5-6

5.1.5 Fiber Optic Networks ................................................................. 5-6

5.1.6 Satellites ........................................................................

................ 5-7 5.1.7 VSATs ........................................................................ .................. 5-12

5.2 Trends in Telecommunications in Mexico ............................................. 5-13

5.2.1 Overall Trends ........................................................................

..... 5-14

5.2.2 SatellIte Demand Forecast ......................................................... 5-14

5.2.3 Satellite Revenues .......................................................................

5-14

5.3 Country Overview -Mexico ...................................................................

.5-15 Ii

5.3.1 Mexico's Economic Importance ................................................ 5-15

5.3.2 General Background ................................................................... 5-16

5.3.3 History ........................................................................

.................. 5-19

5.3.4 Government ........................................................................

......... 5-19

5.3.5 Global Trade ........................................................................

........ 5-20

5.3.6 Trends in Industrial Development ........................................... 5-21

5.3.7 Currency Crisis, in '94-95 ........................................................... 5-23

5.4 Summary and ConclUSIOns ...................................................................... 5-24

6. Market Analysis for Developmg Countries ..................................................... 6-1

6.1 Introduction ........................................................................

........................ 6-1

6.2 Definibon of Developing Countries ........................................................ 6-1

6.3 Forecast of Demand in Developing Countries ...................................... 6-2

6.3.1 Telecommurucations in Developing Countries ...................... 6-2

6.3.2 Telecommunications Demand in Developing

Countries ........................................................................ 6-6

6.3.3 Demand for Services and Required Quality ........................... 6-7

6.3.4 Demand for Satellites ................................................................. 6-7

6.4 Summary ........................................................................

............................. 6-13

7. Technical Feasibility of NIl Augmentation via Satellltes ............................... 7-1

7.1 Augmentation for Large Geograpluc Areas .......................................... 7-1

7.2 Potential Applicability ofVSAT Technology ........................................ 7-3

7.3 Applicability of Solidaridad Concept ..................................................... 7-5

7.3.1 Description of SOlidaridad ......................................................... 7-5

7.3.2 Universal Applicabllity of Solidaridad Concept .................... 7-5

7.3.3 Issues Raised by Large Geographic Area Coverage .............. 7-6

7.3.4 Comparison of Solidaridad with Morelos and Brazilsat ...... 7-6

7.4 Summary of Results ........................................................................

........... 7-9

8. Financial Analysis for Developmg Countries .................................................. 8-1

8.1 Estimate of Potential Revenues ................................................................ 8-1

8.2 Need for Subsidies ........................................................................

............. 8-3

8.3 EconomIC Base Required ........................................................................

.. 8-4

8.4 Irutial Cost for NIl Augmentation ........................................................... 8-5

8.5 Financing Advanced Technology Satellites ........................................... 8-6

8.6 Impact of Large Inflation Rates ................................................................ 8-6

8.7 Comparison between Brazllsat and Sohdaridad ................................... 8-7

8.8 Summary of Results ........................................................................

........... 8-8

9. Concluslons ........................................................................

.................................. 9-1

9.1 Market Deflnition .......... ........................................................................

.. 9-1

9.2 Flnancial Imphcations ........................................................................

....... 9-2

9.3 Technology Recommendations ................................................................ 9-4

9.4 Recommendations for R&D .................................................................... 9-5

9.4.1 Recommendations for Industry ............................................... 9-5

9.4.2 Recommendations for Industry and NASA. ........................... 9-5

9.4.3 Recommendations for NASA .................................................... 9-6

10. References ........................................................................

...................................... 10-1 IV

Appendices

A. Use of On Board Processing ........................................................................ ....... A-1 A.1 Tradeoff Summary ........................................................................ ............. A-1 A.2 System Downlink EIRP ........................................................................ ..... A-3 A.3 System Examples ........................................................................ ............... A-S A.4 Technology Assessment. ........................................................................ ... A-7 A.S Size, Weight, Power, and Cost Considerations ..................................... A-lO A.6 Conclusions ........................................................................ ......................... A-14

B. Frequency Band of Operahon ........................................................................

.... B-1

B.1 Introduction and Summary ...................................................................... B-1

B.2 Unk Impairments ........................................................................ .............. B-3 B.3 Technology Assessment. ........................................................................ .. B-12 B.4 Conclusions ........................................................................ ........................ B-14 C. Antenna Technologies ........................................................................ ................ C-1 C.l Introduction ........................................................................ ........................ C-l C.2 Multiple Beam Antennas ........................................................................ .. C-2 C.3 Achve Antennas ........................................................................ C-4

C.4 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................... C-9

D. Use of Intersatellite Unks ........................................................................

........... D-1

D.1 Description of Intersatelhte Links ........................................................... 0-1

D.2 Use of Intersatellite Unks ........................................................................

. 0-3 D.3 60 GHz ISL System ........................................................................ ............ 04 D.4 Ophcal ISL System ........................................................................ ............. 0-12

D.S Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................... D-17

E. Technologies to Enable Low Cost Satellite Communicanons ....................... E-1 E.1 Economics of Satellite Communications ................................................ E-2 E.2 System Design to Reduce User Costs ...................................................... E-7 E.3 Technologies that Influence User Costs .................................................. E-8 E.4 Specific Recommendanons for TechnolOgies ........................................ E-13

Report Documentation Page ............................................................... Facing back cover

v

This page is zntentlonally blank.

vi

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: ........................................................................ .......................................... 1-9 Figure 2-1: Future Opportunities for Communication SeIVlces ......................... 2-2

Figure

2-2: Satellites today are an integral part of the NII/GII .......................... 2-7

Figure

2-3: Residential information infrastructure is becoming more

diverse ........................................................................ ............................. 2-8 Figure 2-4: Broadcast Satellites: Future User Services and Satellite Characteristics ........................................................................ 2-9 Figure 2-5: Fixed Service Satellites: Future User Services and Satellite Characteristics ........................................................................ 2-1 0 Figure 2-6: Mobile Service Satellites: Future User Services and Satellite Characteristics. ........................................................................ 2-1 0

Figure 3-1: Number of Mam Lines in China ......................................................... 3-4

Figure 3-2: Forecast of transponder use in the Asia Pacific region .................... 3-7

Figure 3-3: Asia

Pacific Transponder Allocation .................................................. 3-8

Figure 3-4: Asia Pacific Transponder Use ............................................................. 3-9

Figure 3-5: China's Satellite Development Plan ................................................... 3-17

Figure 4-1: Coverage for Brazilsat ........................................................................

.. 4-7

Figure 4-2:

Brazilian Population Characteristics .................................................. 4-9

Figure 4-3:

Brazilian Economic Characteristics .................................................... 4-10

Figure 5-1: Mexico's Telephone Characteristics ................................................... 5-2

Figure 5-2: Mexico's

TV and Entertainment ......................................................... 5-2

Figure 5-3:

TELEP AC' s Current Topology ............................................................ 5-5

Figure 5-4: Mexico's Economic Characteristics .................................................... 5-16

FIgure 5-5:

BrazllIan Population Characteristics .................................................. 5-18

FIgure

6-1: Per capita availability of major infrastructural components .......... 6-5

Figure 6-2: Main telephone line waitmg time distribution ................................. 6-6

Figure 6-3: Infrastructure growth rates .................................................................. 6-6

Figure 6-4: Number of faults per 100 main lines vs. telephone line density ........................................................................ 6-7 Figure 7-1: Rural Telephone Exchange Interconnection ..................................... 7-4 Figure 8-1: Estimated Maximum Satellite ROI for Conventional Services ....... 8-2 Figure 8-2: Potetnial Cost Recovery of Infrastructures ........................................ 8-3

FIgure 9-1: Capacity Cost Companson .................................................................. 9-3

viI Figure A-I: Downlink Eb/No versus Uplink ............................................. A-3 FigureA-2: Density and Speed Performance Trends in DIgital Semiconductor Chips ........................................................................ .... A-7

Figure A-3:

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