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RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS
AFRICA AND ITS REGIONS
IN COLLABORATION WITH
2DISCLAIMER
This publication and the material herein are provided as is". All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to
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IRENA and AfDB (2022), Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Africa and Its Regions, International Renewable
Energy Agency and African Development Bank, Abu Dhabi and Abidjan.Available for download:
www.irena.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback: info@irena.org© IRENA 2022ABOUT IRENA
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-
operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver
of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. A global intergovernmental
organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of
renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit
of sustainable development, energy access, energy security, and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.
www.irena.orgABOUT AFDB
The African Development Bank Group is Africa"s premier development finance institution. It comprises three
distinct entities: the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Development Fund (ADF) and the Nigeria
Trust Fund (NTF). On the ground in 41 African countries with an external office in Japan, the Bank contributes
to the economic development and the social progress of its 54 regional member states. www.afdb.org 3RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS
AND ITS REGIONS
Africa is at a crossroads. For many of the people of this vast and diverse continent, access to affordable, clean and
sustainable energy remains an aspiration. The need for better and more abundant energy is evident in many walks of life,
from households relying on dirty fuels for cooking and farmers lacking energy to harvest their crops, and from health
clinics struggling to power operating rooms to businesses contending with power outages. Climate change is fast adding
new challenges in the form of extreme weather events, rising temperatures and more variable rainfall.
We know that renewable energy can help to resolve many of these social, economic, health and environmental
challenges. Renewables are key to overcoming energy poverty, providing energy services without damaging human
health or ecosystems, and enabling sustainable socio-economic development. As this report shows, a transition to a
renewables-based energy system in Africa promises substantial gains in GDP, employment, and human welfare in each
of the continent"s constitutive regions.Although Africa"s share of global renewable energy investments and capacity installations remained relatively small over
the past decade, the continent can draw on a vast wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal resource potential. Falling costs are
increasingly bringing renewables within reach, whether through grid extension, mini-grids or stand-alone applications.
A profound energy transition centred on renewables and energy efficiency is increasingly understood as not only feasible
but essential for a climate-safe future in which sustainable development prerogatives are met. In fact, a sophisticated
understanding of the intimate connections between the energy system and the economy at large is essential in designing
policies, along with an appreciation of the ways in which both are linked to the world"s ecosystems and human wellbeing.
Experience around the world gives us a strong sense of what it takes to succeed. As this report makes clear, African
policymakers can draw on a wealth of experience in planning, financing, and deploying renewable energy projects, and
integrating them into energy systems. But as is true in other parts of the world, it is critical that each African country play
to its own strengths and understand its weaknesses, whether in terms of its industrial capacities, commodity and trade
dependencies, or skills base. Countries can and must learn from each other. Intra-regional and broader international
cooperation can overcome drawbacks any individual country may face on its own.A wide-ranging challenge demands a comprehensive policymaking approach. This report illuminates the array of policy
areas that may contribute to a successful energy transition. But rather than picking policies selectively, they all need to
be part of an overarching, holistic framework that is more than just the sum of its parts.The growing discourse on a Green Deal in places like Europe and North America has spotlighted the importance of a bold,
systemic approach. A Green Deal will of necessity look different in Africa, tailored to its own circumstances. But the key
point is its transformative nature: pursuing synergies in resolving pressing social, economic, health, and environmental
issues, recognising that because market-driven approaches alone will not suffice strong public interventions are needed,
and placing people at the centre of the transition. The objectives of Africa"s energy transition are far-reaching economic diversification; the creation of decent jobs; environmental stewardship and climate resilience; and universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy. A comprehensive policy package, as detailed in this report, must be underpinned by strong institutions and adequate financial resources, assisted by international collaboration, and supported by communities on the ground. This report offers policymakers and the interested public a wealth of data, insights, and policy recommendations. It is my hope that it will also prove to be an inspiration, helping to spark the energy transition and driving the continent"s sustainable development.FOREWORD
Director-General, IRENA
4 RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: AFRICA AND ITS REGIONSBACKGROUND AND
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
OVERVIEW
AFRICA"S ENERGY
LANDSCAPE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Annex A
Annex B
1.1 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT .....................
1.2 TRADE, COMMODITY DEPENDENCE AND
INDUSTRIAL DIVERSIFICATION
1.3 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ENERGY
IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS ................
1.4 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND THE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS .......
1.5 CONCLUSION ...................................
2.1 ENERGY IN AFRICA -
A CROSSREGIONAL OVERVIEW ...............
2.2 NORTH AFRICA .................................
2.3 WEST AFRICA ..................................
2.4 EAST AFRICA ...................................
2.5 CENTRAL AFRICA ..............................
2.6 SOUTHERN AFRICA ............................
2.7 CONCLUSION ...................................
TACKLING THE
ENERGY ACCESS
DEFICIT IN AFRICA
THE WAY FORWARD
06 07RENEWABLE ENERGY
FINANCE IN AFRICA
SOCIO_ECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF THE ENERGY
TRANSITION IN AFRICA
0305POLICY FRAMEWORK
FOR THE ENERGY
TRANSITION
043.1 TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
INVESTMENT IN AFRICA .......................90
3.2 SOURCES OF FUNDING FOR
RENEWABLES IN AFRICA .....................106
3.3 MANAGING RISKS AND MOBILISING
CAPITAL ........................................1253.4 CONCLUSION ..................................134
4.1 ENABLING POLICIES ..........................139
4.2 DEPLOYMENT POLICIES ......................158
4.3 INTEGRATING POLICIES ......................185
4.4 STRUCTURAL POLICIES FOR A JUST
AND INCLUSIVE TRANSITION ................187
4.5 CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................200
5.1 IMPACTS ON GDP UNDER 1.5-S ..............209
5.2 IMPACTS ON JOBS UNDER 1.5-S .............222
5.3 WELFARE EFFECTS ...........................233
6.1 THE ENERGY ACCESS DEFICIT:
A CLOSER LOOK ...............................246
6.2 RAISING ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
USING DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLES .........250
6.3 CLEAN COOKING WITH RENEWABLE
ENERGY SOLUTIONS ..........................269
6.4 PRIORITY ACTION AREAS TO REACH
UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO MODERN
FORMS OF ENERGY ...........................278
7.1 THE OPPORTUNITIES INHERENT IN THE
ENERGY TRANSITION .........................284
7.2 THE POWER OF COMPREHENSIVE POLICY ...285
7.3 SCALING UP FINANCE ........................287
7.4 BRIDGING THE GAP IN ACCESS
TO MODERN ENERGY .........................288
7.5 THE PROMISE OF AN AFRICAN
GREEN DEAL
...................................289 6 RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET ANALYSIS: AFRICA AND ITS REGIONSLISTS OF FIGURES, TABLES AND BOXES
Figure 1.1 Overview of the evolution of key economic indicators in Africa and its regions ............16Figure 1.2
Manufacturing value added (MVA) in
Africa and its regions ........................17
Figure 1.3
Overview of employment indicators in
Africa and its regions ........................18
Figure 1.4
Evolution of imports and exports across
Africa, by sector, 2000-2019 ................20
Figure 1.5
Composition of exports, by region, 2019 ......20
Figure 1.6
Socio-economic indicators based on
energy exports/imports .....................25Figure 1.7
Evolution of key socio-economic
indicators by African region ..................27Figure 2.1
Total primary energy supply in Africa,
by source, 2008-2018 ........................32Figure 2.2
Total primary energy supply in Africa
and its regions, by source, 2018 ..............33Figure 2.3
Electricity generation mix in Africa,
by source, 2010-2019 ........................35Figure 2.4
Electricity generation in Africa,
by energy source, 2019 ......................36Figure 2.5
Installed renewables-based generation
capacity, 2011 2020, and capacity additions, 2019-2020 ........................37Figure 2.6
Installed hydropower generation capacity,
Africa, 2020 .................................38
Figure 2.7
Hydropower potential and installed
capacity, Africa ..............................39Figure 2.8
Total capacity of existing, committed,
planned and candidate hydropower plants in Africa ..............................40Figure 2.9
Africa: (a) average annual global
horizontal irradiation; (b) most suitable areas for utility-scale solar PV ................41Figure 2.10
Solar PV potential and installed capacity,
Africa .......................................42
Figure 2.11
Africa's installed solar generation
capacity, 2020 ..............................42Figure 2.12
Africa: (a) average annual wind speed; (b)
most suitable areas for utility-scale wind ......43Figure 2.13
Wind potential and installed capacity,
Africa .......................................44
Figure 2.14
Installed wind generation capacity,
Africa, 2020 .................................44
Figure 2.15
Total final energy consumption in Africa
by sector and source, 2018 ...................46Figure 2.16
Final energy consumption in Africa and
its regions by sector, 2018 ....................47Figure 2.17
Access to electricity and clean cooking
fuels in Africa, 2019 ..........................49Figure 2.18
African population served by off-grid
renewable power, 2009-2019 ................50Figure 2.19Trends in biogas production in Africa,
2009-2019 ..................................51
Figure 2.20
North African countries in total primary
energy supply, 2018 .........................53Figure 2.21
Access to electricity and clean cooking
fuels in North Africa, 2019 ....................54Figure 2.22
Total primary energy supply in North
Africa, by source, 2018 .......................55
Figure 2.23
North Africa's electricity generation mix,
by source, 2010-2019 ........................56Figure 2.24
Electricity generation in North Africa,
by source, 2019 ..............................56Figure 2.25
North Africa's electricity generation
capacity by country and source, 2020 ........57Figure 2.26
Most suitable areas in North Africa for
utility-scale solar PV and wind ...............58Figure 2.27
North African population served by
off-grid renewable power, 2009-2019 ........59Figure 2.28
Top five West African countries in total
primary energy supply, 2018 .................60Figure 2.29
Access to electricity and clean cooking
fuels in West Africa, 2019 ....................61Figure 2.30
Total primary energy supply in
West Africa, by source, 2018 .................62
Figure 2.31
West Africa's electricity generation mix,
by source, 2010-2019 ........................62Figure 2.32
Electricity generation in West Africa, 2019 ....63Figure 2.33
Electricity generation capacity in West
Africa, by country and source, 2020 ..........64
Figure 2.34
Most suitable areas in West Africa for
utility-scale solar PV and wind ...............65Figure 2.35
West African population served by
off-grid renewable power, 2009-2019 ........66Figure 2.36
Access to electricity and clean cooking
fuels in East Africa, 2019 .....................67Figure 2.37
Top five East African countries in total
primary energy supply, 2018 .................68Figure 2.38
Total primary energy supply in East Africa,
by source, 2018 ..............................69Figure 2.39
East Africa's electricity generation mix,
by source, 2010-2019 ........................70Figure 2.40
Electricity generation in East Africa,
by source, 2019 ..............................70Figure 2.41
Electricity generation capacity in East Africa,
by country and source, East Africa, 2020 .....71Figure 2.42
Most suitable areas in East Africa for
utility-scale solar PV and wind ...............72Figure 2.43
East African population served by off-grid
renewable power, 2009-2019 ................73Figure 2.44
Access to electricity and clean cooking
fuels in Central Africa, 2019 ..................74Figure 2.45
Top five Central African countries in total
primary energy supply, 2018 .................75Figure 2.46
Total primary energy supply in Central
Africa, by source, 2018 .......................75
7FIGURES; TABLES AND BOXES
Figure 2.47
Central Africa's electricity generation mix,
by source, 2010-2019 ........................Figure 2.48
Electricity generation in Central Africa,
by source, 2019 ..............................Figure 2.49
Electricity generation capacity in Central
Africa, by country and source, 2020 ..........
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