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Singapore: Hotel Market Market Report - March 2019

MARKET REPORT

USA:

Hotel Market Trends & Analysis

APRIL 2020

USA: Hotel Market Trends & AnalysisMarket Report - April 2020 www.horwathhtl.com2

Hotel Market Trends & Analysis

The following analysis will examine hotel supply and investment market. The paragraphs which follow discuss historical U.S. economic trends and the future U.S. economic outlook. The principal resources used for this discussion include

Barron's, CBRE Econometric Advisors, CoStar News,

System, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Kiplinger, Los Angeles Times, Mumford Company, Survey of Professional Forecasters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of

Economic Analysis (BEA) and USA Today.

In 2019, the U.S. economy advanced a modest 2.3

percent, the least since 2016 and -20.7 percent lower than 2018's GDP growth rate of 2.9 percent, a rate which

2017 and increases in federal, state and local government

consumer spending. most analysts had predicted - Q3 and Q4 each posted modest GDP growth rates of 2.1 percent as consumer investment and stockpiling. though the pace of real GDP growth had slowed, it remained consistent with the economy's potential rate of growth, which most economists estimate to be between 1.75% and 2.0%, though 2.0% to 3.0% is considered to be ideal for the U.S.; of concern throughout 2019, especially Q2 through Q4, resources: on a macroeconomic level, 2019 closed with two throughout 2019, the U.S. consumer remained the in house prices. USA: Hotel Market Trends & AnalysisMarket Report - April 2020 www.horwathhtl.com3 The paragraphs which follow discuss historical and current industry supply and demand, occupancy rates, average daily The principal resources used for the following discussion Travel News (BTN), CBRE Econometric Advisors, CoStar News, Hotel Business, Hotel News Now (HNN), Mumford Company, STR/a CoStar Group company, STR's U.S. Hotel

Tourism Economics/an Oxford Economics company.

Since 2010, the U.S. hotel industry has registered 10 inclusive). However, 2019's year-over-year growth rate of 0.9 percent was the lowest since the recovery from historical average growth of 3.2 percent. As components of RevPAR, two key metrics - occupancy impending industry-wide slowdown as year-over-year

ADR - $131.21 is the highest ADR ever

RevPAR - $86.76 is the highest RevPAR ever

ՊRoom supply and demand each increased 2.0 percent in simply, hotel revenue growth did not keep pace with rising Year-over-year room supply growth rates increased steadily from 0.5 percent in 2011 to a high of 2.0 percent in 2018 of new inventory came online in the limited-service sectors the year prior. prior.

Annually from 2010 through 2019, new supply was

generated demand. While these key industry performance on pricing power.

2020, a rate of growth which will lag the Fed's 1.9 percent

that hotel revenue growth will not keep pace with rising USA: Hotel Market Trends & AnalysisMarket Report - April 2020 www.horwathhtl.com4

2010 through 2018. In 2019, supply and demand grew in

in 2018 - from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in 2018 performance metrics to slow further. At 1.6 percent and

Recession years of 2008 and 2009.

Lodging Industry Supply and Demand Growth

Source: STR

growth surpassed room night supply growth for the eight

Source: STR

demand growth, for 2020 STR has forecast a -0.3 percent

ADR and RevPAR

Two important hotel performance indicators are average at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, from $101.93 in 2011 to $131.21 in 2019. During this same growth rate of 4.5 percent, from $61.04 in 2011 to $86.76 in 2019. From 2011 through 2015, RevPAR growth was

ADR-driven.

Though RevPAR increased annually from 2011 through

2019, inclusive, in 2019 it grew at a year-over-year rate

ADR and RevPAR, especially since 2016, suggest that the illustrates the trend for each since 2011.

Source: STR

$131.21 in 2019 and RevPAR to remain virtually unchanged at 0.0 percent, or $86.73. Viewed in tandem, growth forecast in 2020. USA: Hotel Market Trends & AnalysisMarket Report - April 2020 www.horwathhtl.com5 The paragraphs which follow discuss the revised outlook resources used for this discussion include Business Insider,

Economics and UCLA Andersen. The Q1 2020 COVID-19

pandemic in the U.S. has forced economists to revise earlier pandemic remain unknown, these revised forecasts too are The U.S. economic outlook was for GDP growth to remain percent in 2020. In Q1 2020, economists twice revised growth - a recession, and second to forecast a worsening of theaters, restaurants - to those that lack social distance in

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