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Demographic Turning Points Population Projections for the United States: 2020 to 2060 1 Jonathan Vespa Lauren Medina David Armstrong * US Census 

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Current Approaches to

Mortality Projections

Lauren Medina and Daniel Goodkind

Population Division, U.S.Census Bureau

Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

Belgrade, Serbia

25-27 November 2019

This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion. Any views

expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Outline

Domestic Population

Projections

ͻCohort-Component Method

ͻMortality by Nativity

ͻProjected Mortality Trends

International Population

Projections

ͻInternational Database (IDB)

ͻDemographic Analysis and

Population Projection System

(DAPPS) 2

Domestic Population Projections

3

Cohort-Component Method

Where:

4

Projecting Mortality: Data and Characteristics

Numerators

ͻMortality data ʹVital Statistics,

National Center for Health Statistics

(NCHS)

Denominators

ͻPopulation estimates ʹPopulation

Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau

ͻIncorporating Nativity ʹSurvey data,

U.S. Census Bureau

5

CharacteristicDetail

Age0-99; 100+

SexMale; Female

Raceand

Hispanic Origin

White

Blackor African American

American Indian or Alaska Native

Asian

Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic

1997 Office of Management and Budget standards on race and ethnicity

NativityNative-born; Foreign-born

Projecting Mortality: Adjusting for Race and

Hispanic Origin

6 ͻThe process designed to ensure consistency in race and ethnicity measures over time

Recoding

ͻCombining race/ Hispanic origin groups to account for concerns about the quality of race reporting in the death data ͻGroup 1: Non-Hispanic White, Asian, and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander ͻGroup 2:Non-Hispanic Black or African American and American Indian or Alaska Native

ͻGroup 3:Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

Grouping

Projecting Mortality: Method

1) Indirectly project life expectancy at birth (e0) by sex to the year 2100 to determine

which model life tables will be used to project mortality rates

2) Project mortality rates to the year 2100

3) Create life tables for the years 2017 through 2060 using projected mortality rates

7

For more information on the methods used for the 2017 National Population Projections, please see: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/technical-

Foreign born tend to

live longer

The differences by race

and Hispanic origin are greater for native-born groups

Despite large increases

between 2017 and

2060, some groups will

continue to have lower life expectancy

Life Expectancy by Nativity: Findings

8 9 Life Expectancy at Birth by Nativity: 2017 and 2060 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections 70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90

7072747678808284868890

Life Expectancy at Birth 2060

Life Expectancy at Birth 2017

Foreign born tend to

live longer 10 Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Hispanic Origin:

2017 and 2060, Native-born

The differences by race

and Hispanic origin are greater for native-born groups Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections 70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90

7072747678808284868890

Life Expectancy at Birth 2060

Life Expectancy at Birth 2017

White, Asian, and Native

Hawaiian or Other Pacific

Islander

Black or African American

and American Indian or

Alaska Native

Latino (of any race)

11 Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Hispanic Origin:

2017 and 2060, Foreign-born

70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90

7072747678808284868890

Life Expectancy at Birth 2060

Life Expectancy at Birth 2017

White, Asian, and Native

Hawaiian or Other Pacific

Islander

Black or African American

and American Indian or

Alaska Native

Latino (of any race)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections

The differences by race

and Hispanic origin are greater for native-born groups

Note: Groups 1 and 3 overlap

12

Life Expectancy at Birth: 2017 and 2060

70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90

7072747678808284868890

Life Expectancy at Birth 2060

Life Expectancy at Birth 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections

Despite large increases

between 2017 and

2060, some groups will

continue to have lower life expectancy

Group 2:Non-Hispanic

Black or African American

and American Indian or

Alaska Native

2017 life expectancy: 72.1

2060 life expectancy: 82.4

Gain:+10.3 years

13

Life Expectancy at Birth: 2017 and 2060

70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90

7072747678808284868890

Life Expectancy at Birth 2060

Life Expectancy at Birth 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections

Despite large increases

between 2017 and

2060, some groups will

continue to have lower life expectancy

Group 2: Non-Hispanic

Black or African American

and American Indian or

Alaska Native

2017 life expectancy: 78.0

2060 life expectancy: 86.2

Gain:+8.2 years

International Population Projections

14

U.S. Census Bureau International Work (60+ years)

Builds statistical capacity around the world through technical assistance, training, and development of software products Conducts demographic, economic, and geographic studies of other countries

Maintains an International Data Base (IDB)

Produces estimates and projections of over 200 country/area populations around the world 15 16

International Mortality Projections

Estimates for each country rely on available data (vital registration, censuses, surveys, etc.) along with assessments of data quality For projections, we assume a fixed logistic pattern of improvements based on worldwide historical trends, with a fixed ceiling of maximum life expectancy at birth (currently 82.6 for males and 88.4 for females) 17 40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0

200020102020203020402050

Life Expectancy at Birth

Year

AfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAmerican Samoa

AndorraAngolaAnguillaAntigua and Barbuda

ArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustralia

AustriaAzerbaijan

Estimated and Projected Life Expectancy at Birth for Females

18Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB)

EstimatesProjections

International Mortality Projections (cont.)

Expected revisions to IDB projections in 2020:

Horizon will be extended from 2050 to 2100

Upper assumed ceiling of life expectancy will be raised based on the latest evidence and trends, which will bring them closer to those assumed for

U.S. domestic population projections

19

International Projections Software (DAPPS)

DAPPS (Demographic Analysis and Population Projections

Software) is a user-friendly way to:

Input data and perform population projections

Undertake demographic analysis (based on inputs) to better determine the inputs for such projections 20

International Projections Software (DAPPS)

(cont.)

Some key advantages of using DAPPS:

Incorporates a tool to ensure that subnational cohort-component projections ʹperformed separately in DAPPS ʹwill sum in each year to a given national projection

Software is freely available

Animated graphics of annual population change (screenshots for the age- sex structure of Niger in 2020 and 2050 on the following slides) 21
22
23

For more information about

our international work, visit: census.gov/internationalprograms 24

Thank you!

Lauren Medina

Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

lauren.medina@census.gov

Daniel Goodkind

Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

daniel.m.goodkind@census.gov 25
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