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POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

BY MARK MATHER, LINDA A. JACOBSEN, BETH JAROSZ, LILLIAN KILDUFF,

AMANDA LEE, KELVIN M. POLLARD, PAOLA SCOMMEGNA,

AND

ALICIA VANORMANwww.prb.org

JUNE 2019

VOL. 74, NO. 1

Population Bulletin America"s

Changing Population

What to Expect in the 2020 Census

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Population Reference Bureau INFORMS people around

the world about population, health, and the environment, and

EMPOWERS them to use that information to ADVANCE

the well-being of current and future generations.BOARD OF TRUS TEES

Amanda Glassman, Chair of the Board

Chief Operating Offi

ce and Senior Fellow, Center for Global

Development, Washington, D.C.

David Finn, Vice Chair of the Board

Chief Operating Offi

cer, AppEsteem Corporation, Bellevue, Wash.

Susan E. McGregor

, Secretary of the Board

Assistant Professor

, Journalism and Assistant Director, Tow Center of Digital Journalism, Columbia University, New York, N.Y.

Jamie Herring, Treasurer of the Board

Founder and President, HabitatSeven, Ottawa, Canada Jeffrey Jordan, PRB President and Chief Executive Officer

Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.

Isabella Aboderin,

Senior Research Scientist, Aging and

Development Unit, African Population and Health Research Center,

Nairobi, Kenya

Christine A. Bachrach,

Research Professor

, Department of Sociology and Maryland Population Research Center, University of Maryland,

College Park, Md.

Alaka Basu,

Professor, Department of Development Sociolo

y

Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.

Geoff Dabelko,

Professor and Director, Environmental Studies

Program, Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs, Ohio

University, Athens, Ohio

Sandy Davis,

Former Senior Advisor, Bipartisan Policy Center,

Washington, D.C.

Nihal W. Goonewardene,

Former President and Chief Executive

Of ficer, International Science and Technology Institute, Inc., Potomac, Md.

Thomas LeGrand,

President, International Union for the Scientific

Study of Population, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Jennifer Madans,

Associate Director for Science, Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics,

Washington, D.C.

Scott C. McDonald,

President and CEO, Advertising Research

Foundation (ARF), New York, N.Y.

Elizabeth K. Schoenecker,

Former Chief, Policy, Evaluation, and

Communication Division, Offi

ce of Population and Reproductive Health,

USAID, Washington, D.C.

Jennifer Dabbs Scuibba,

Stanley J. Buckman Professor

, Department of International Studies, Rhodes College, Memphis, Tenn.

Carolyn L. West,

Senior Vice President, Public Finance, PNC Bank

N.A., Washington, D.C.

Richard Woods,

Senior Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Capital One,

New York, N.Y.

The

Population Bulletin

is published twice a year and distributed to members of Population Reference Bureau.

Population Bulletins

are also available for $7 each (discounts for bulk orders). To become a PRB member or to order PRB materials, contact PRB, 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520, Washington, DC 20009-5728; Tel.: 800-877-9881; Fax: 202-328-3937; Email: popref@prb.org;

Website: prb.org.

The suggested citation, if you quote from this publication, is: Mark Mather et al., "America's Changing Population: What to

Expect in the 2020 Census,"

Population Bulletin

74, no. 1 (2019).

Cover photo:

Hero Images

© 2019 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Mark Mather is associate vice president of U.S. Programs at PRB. Linda A. Jacobsen is vice president of U.S. Programs at PRB. Beth Jarosz is a senior research associate, Alicia VanOrman is a senior research associate, Kelvin M. Pollard is a senior demographer, Amanda Lee is a research associate, Paola Scommegna is a senior writer, and Lillian Kilduff is a research assistant, all in U.S.

Programs at PRB.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to acknowledge the following PRB staff who reviewed a draft of this report and provided valuable assistance: Jean D'Amico for her review of the data, Nancy Matuszak and Heidi Worley for their editorial contributions, and Jessica Woodin and Anneka Van Scoyoc for their guidance on the graphics.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

AMERICA"S CHANGING

POPULATION: WHAT TO EXPECT

IN THE 2020 CENSUS

BY

MARK MATHER, LINDA A. JACOBSEN,

BETH JAROSZ, LILLIAN KILDUFF,

AMANDA LEE, KELVIN M. POLLARD,

PAOLA SCOMMEGNA,

AND

ALICIA VANORMAN

JUNE 2019

VOL. 74, NO. 1

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Population

Bulletin

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

..........2

POPULATION SIZE AND CHANGE

Rapid Growth Continues in the South and West

AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION

The Sex Ratio at Older Ages Is Narrowing

Support Ratios for Older Adults and Children Are Shifting .............................8

RACIAL AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION

U.S. Racial and Ethnic Diversity Is Growing

What Drives Racial and Ethnic Change?

A Diversity Gap Exists Between Older and Younger Americans ...................10

HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND COMPOSITION

A Reversal of the Long-Term Decline in Household Size? ............................12 Household Composition Continues to Shift From Family to Nonfamily

Households

...........................13 Household and Family Type Vary Widely Across Age Groups ......................14

What's Driving Changes in Household Composition?

..................................15

HOMEOWNERSHIP

...............16 The White-Black Gap in Homeownership Is Large and Growing ..................17

LOOKING TOWARD CENSUS DAY 2020

REFERENCES

........................20 www.prb.orgPOPULATION BULLETIN 74.1 20192

Executive Summary

April 1, 2020 is Census Day. The U.S. Constitution mandates that a census be taken every 10 years to count all people— both citizens and noncitizens—living in the United States. 1 An accurate count of the population is both required by law and serves as the basis for fair political representation, and it plays a vital role in many areas of public life. State population counts from the census are used to reapportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives across the 50 states. State and local officials use census results to help redraw congressional, state, and local district boundaries to meet the one-person, one-vote rule. Governments and nonprofit organizations rely on census data to determine the need for new roads, hospitals, schools, and other public sector investments. Census data are also vital to businesses as a key source of information about the changing needs of the U.S. population.

Census data are used to distribute more than $675

billion in federal funds to states and local communities for health, education, housing, and infrastructure programs. 2 This

Bulletin

provides a preview of 2020 Census results— identified through data from surveys, population estimates, and projections—and an overview of key population and housing trends that will shape the United States in 2020 and beyond.

Among the key findings:

The U.S. population is on track to grow at the slowest rate since the 1930s, which could have wide-ranging impacts on the labor supply and the demand for goods and

services, including new homes, over the coming years.• As the U.S. population continues to shift to the

South and West, states in those regions are expected to gain congressional seats at the expense of states in the Northeast and Midwest.

More than half of U.S. counties have experienced

net population loss since 2010, with more than 550 counties losing at least 5 percent of their residents.

The percentage of U.S. residents ages 65 and

older is increasing at the fastest pace in U.S. history, with significant implications for public spending on programs for older adults. Children are at the forefront of racial/ethnic change in the United States, creating a diversity gap among generations. Fewer households are being established, due in part to the growing share of young adults who still live with their parents.

A growing divide in homeownership rates between

whites and blacks is increasing the wealth gap between racial/ethnic groups. Many of these trends will have immediate implications for public spending, nonprofit planning, and business decisionmaking. Other trends are reshaping the composition of our population and households in ways that will continue to unfold for decades to come. The census is our best—and only—source of accurate population and housing counts for the nation, states, and small geographic areas, enabling communities, government, businesses, and nonprofit organizations to adapt to the challenges ahead. "Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers... The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

Article One, Section Two,

U.S. Constitution

www.prb.org AMERICA'S CHANGING POPULATION: WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE 2020 CENSUS3

Population Size and Change

The pace of U.S. population growth is slowing, according to the Census Bureau"s 2018 estimates and 2020 projections, which provide a preview of 2020 Census results. The U.S. population has increased each decade since the first census was conducted in 1790, surpassing 50 million by 1880, 100 million by 1920, and 200 million by 1970. The 2010 Census was the first head count in which the U.S. population exceeded

300 million. However, the rate of population growth from one

decade to the next has declined since 2000 (see Figure 1). The U.S. population increased by 10 percent between 2000 and 2010 and is projected to increase by 8 percent between

2010 and 2020, from 309 million to 333 million. An 8 percent

gain would be the smallest percentage increase in the U.S. population between censuses since the 1930s; the projected numerical increase of 24 million people would be the smallest gain since the 1980s. Yet, between 2010 and 2018, the U.S. population only increased by 6 percent. Unless the rate of population growth increases over the next two years, the United States may not reach the Census Bureau"s projected population size in 2020. Growth in the number of households has also slowed, and population growth is on track to outpace household growth this decade for the first time since the 1930s. Between 2000 and

2010, the number of households increased by 11 percent, but

household growth rates declined during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and the slow economic recovery that followed. Between 2010 and 2017, the number of households increased

by only 3 percent. For the household growth rate to equal the Census Bureau"s projected population growth rate of 8 percent,

the number of households would have to increase by almost

6 million between 2017 and 2020. This level of growth seems

unlikely given that the number of households only increased by 3.3 million over the seven-year period from 2010 to 2017. If the number of households continues to increase at the current average annual rate until 2020, the total increase for the decade is more likely to be around 4.8 million, representing a growth rate of only 4 percent—less than half the rate for the

2000 to 2010 period.

In the long term, slower population and household growth could negatively affect the future U.S. economy by reducing the supply of workers, the tax base, and the demand for goods and services. This slowdown could also reduce demand for new home construction and lead to declines in home values.

RAPID GROWTH CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH

AND WEST

Although U.S. population growth has slowed, the rate of growth has been uneven across regions and states. The most recent estimates show that the South"s population grew 9 percent between 2010 and 2018, with the West right behind at

8 percent. Conversely, the population grew just 2 percent in the

Midwest and 1 percent in the Northeast. Regional and state population trends are important not only from a demographic and economic perspective, but also because they affect the balance of political power in Congress. State population totalsquotesdbs_dbs17.pdfusesText_23