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ANALYSIS

Rural coverage: strategies for

sustainability

Country case studies

July 2015

© GSMA Intelligence gsmaintelligence.com • info@gsmaintelligence.com • @GSMAi GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 2

Reaching the unreached: innovation and investment

Despite the expansion of mobile networks to near-ubiquitous levels, coverage gaps remain:

10% of the global population lack access to basic voice and text services, with around 30%

lacking access to the internet at 3G speeds. The majority of these uncovered populations are low income and live in rural regions of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (together these account for 3.4 of the 4.8 billion not yet on the internet). T he centr al challenge in reaching uncovered communities is overcoming an unfavourable cost-benefit equation: the high fixed costs of laying network infrastructure and maintaining it are spread over thinly distribut ed populations with low purchasing power. Under these circumstanc es, particularly in the absence of road or electricity grid access, network investments often become uneconomical. However, the opportunity cost of not accessing the internet is as high or higher for individuals in rural and remote communities as it is for those in cities given the lack of core service access through physical channels (having a bank account, enrolling in education, seeing a doctor). Reaching the unreached populations therefore requires both investment and innovation. There is a lot of activity around new approaches to rural coverage being deployed by mobile operators, with infrastructure start-ups and even internet players also involved. In this spirit, we have chosen a case-study format to profile the range of strategies being employed. These can broadly be categorised into three groups: • network sharing • passive • active • models drawing on targeted government support • subsidies • universal service funds (USFs) • alternatives • software-based networks • aerial. We focus on the first two in these case studies, with analysis on the third (alternatives) included in our recent report (Closing the coverage gap: a view from Asia). Countries have been selected from all regions of the world (see below). Rural co verage has a proportionately larger impact on emerging markets due to their larger populations, but similar last-mile challenges exist and are being addressed in mature countries, providing the opportunity for read across of best practice.

India page 3

Malaysia page 5

Myanmar page 7

Saudi Arabia page 9

Rwanda page 11

Lesotho page 13

Benin page 15

Chile page 17

Paraguay page 19

Alaska, US page 21

Sweden page 23

Finland page 25

GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 3

The challenge

The combination of a difficult terrain, characterised by mountains and sparsely populated farmlands, high energy c osts and low income lev els made it uneconomical for India' s mobile operators to expand coverage to rural communities, despite more than 70% of the country's population living in those areas. In 2007, the total cellular tower count in the country was 100,000, covering 40% of the land area. This left an estimat ed 500 million people without mobile coverage, according to the Telecommunications Regulatory

Authority of India (TRAI).

Market structure

India's unique mobile subscriber base reached 451 million at the end of 2014, a penetration of 35%. The market is served by 12 active mobile operators, providing services across different 'circles' for which they have received concession. Bharti Airtel was the biggest operator at the end of 2014, with a market share of 23%. Vodafone (19%), Idea Cellular (16%) and Reliance (11%) complete the top four. Aircel (8%), state-owned BSNL (8%) and the six other operators account for the remaining 31%.

Strategy and players

In April 2007, TRAI modified the licence agreements of mobile operators in the country to allow them to share passive network infrastructure, such as towers. The regulator also approved subsidies for tower deployment in rural areas using funds from the universal service obligation fund (USOF). Several mobile operators, including Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Reliance and Idea, spun off their towers to newly formed towercos, such as Bharti Infratel (2007), Indus Towers (2007), Viom Networks (2008) and Reliance Infratel (2008). In April 2008, TRAI approved active network infrastructure sharing, which allows operators to share RAN, tr ansmission syst ems and other active network components to boost network coverage. In 2010, Tata and Aircel sealed a network-sharing agreement with MTNL for 3G services, and in 2015 Airtel and BNSL announced a network-sharing deal that would strengthen their mobile services in areas where either of them has a weak or negligible presence.

Impact and learning

Tower sharing stimulated investment and competition in India's tower market, with the overall tower count rising to more than 450,000 at the end of 2014, a 4.5x uplift from

2007. As a result, 2G network c over age increased to 8 7% of the population, making

mobile services available to previously unreached communities. Although India launched commercial 3G service in 2010, relatively late in comparison with other markets in the region,

Coverage case study: India

GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 4

3G network coverage reached 75% of the population in 2014, driven by network sharing.

For the operators, tower sharing has resulted in significant capex and opex savings, which the GSMA estimates at 40-50% and 20-30% respectively. Furthermore, there have been considerable improvements in quality of service as passive and active network sharing boost capacity in areas of high demand. 0 10 20 30
40
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3G/4G subscribers

20142011201220112010

0% 10% 20% 30%
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3G/4G coverage

Subscribers (million)Coverage (percent)

Figure 1: 3G/4G coverage and subscribers

Source: GSMA Intelligence

GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 5

Coverage case study: Malaysia

The challenge

As part of the National Broadband Initiative introduced by the Malaysian government and the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), the 'Time 3' coverage plan has called for MNOs to avoid unnecessary infrastructure duplication and efficiently use spectrum to address coverage in rural and remote areas. At least in part, this may help make network rollouts in these areas economically viable. The plan aims to ensure that mobile coverage is available in areas where there is a population density of at least 80 people per square kilometre. Since 2010 some 962 (of 1,000 proposed) additional towers have been built to improve coverage.

Market structure

Malaysia has eight licensed MNOs, but three are dominant with almost 90% of the market. Celcom and Maxis each had about 31% of connections, as of December 2014, while DiGi had around 27%, U Mobile 7%, and others 4%. Unique subscriber penetration in Malaysia is 54%, up from 47% in 2010, while unique mobile broadband (3G and 4G) subscriber penetration is 31%, having grown from 12% in 2010.

Strategy and players

With support from the government, Malaysia has some of the most extensive network and spectrum sharing between MNOs in the world. Celcom and DiGi share infrastructure including sites, masts, and backhaul, and Celcom has had a roaming agreement with U Mobile since 2007. Maxis has had a 3G network-sharing agreement with U Mobile since

2011, while Maxis and REDtone have shared infrastructure and spectrum since 2012 to roll

out 4G. Since 2013 Celcom has also shared active elements including spectrum with Altel, which is investing $270 million over five years to roll out a 4G network.

Impact and learnings

3G coverage in Malaysia has grown from 74% of the population at the beginning of 2010 to

95% currently. 4G, which is the focus of most recent network-sharing and spectrum-pooling

agreements, increased from 10% at the start of 2013 to 39% by the first quarter of 2015. This has allowed capex as a percentage of revenues for Malaysia, which has historically been lower than regional or global averages, to open up an even wider gap over the past three years. Despite the moderate level of capex, the expanded mobile broadband coverage helped to drive penetration to nearly triple the level at the start of the decade. Although network-sharing agreements are used in other markets, the scale of those in Malaysia is unique. Sharing of spectrum, given its scarcity and cost, could especially prove useful elsewhere if regulators are supportive and competition concerns can be addressed. GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 6 10% 15% 20% 25%

Developing marketsAsia-PacificGlobalMalaysia

20142013201220112010

Figure 2: Capex intensity (capex as a share of mobile revenues)

Source: GSMA Intelligence

0% 10% 20% 30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4G3G

201520142013201220112010

Figure 3: Network sharing has helped expand mobile broadband coverage

Source: GSMA Intelligence

GSMA Intelligence Rural coverage: strategies for sustainability 7 Special feature: In conversation with Linus Bengtsson

Co-founder and Executive Director, Flowminder

7

The challenge

Before 2013, the mobile netw ork of state-o wned opera tor My anmar Post and Telecommunications Company (MPT) covered only the capital Yangon and a few other cities in the country. Although the operator had launched 3G service , this w as not commercially available to consumers. Indeed, a considerable proportion of the population, mostly in rural areas, did not have any form of mobile service, leaving a large digital divide. In June 2013, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) selected Telenor and Ooredoo to build and operate two new mobile telecommunications networks as part of the government's liberalisation of the telecoms sector. The government also set a voice and data coverage target for the operators at 75% of the population within five years, a requirement that would involve deploying and running network infrastructure in regions lacking grid electricity and in difficult terrains (mountains, glaciers and forests) amid adverse weather conditions, notably heavy rains and severe flooding during the monsoon season.

Market structure

The number of unique mobile subscribers in Myanmar reached 10.6 million at the end of

2014, a penetration of 20%. Most of the growth in the previous two years was recorded

in the second half of 2014 following the launch of commercial services by new entrants Telenor and Ooredoo. The two operators have already established strong footholds in the market, securing a combined market share of 38% - Telenor (23%) and Ooredoo (15%) - at the end of 2014. Incumbent MPT had a market share of 62% at the end of the same period. We estimate 3G coverage in Myanmar has increased to 50% of the population, a spike from the sub-20% levels of the previous five years, driven by network expansion from the two new entrants as part of license obligations. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
30%
35%
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45%
50%

2014201320122011201020092008

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