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[PDF] Technical Report Number 52 Bering-Norton Petroleum

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Technical Report

Number 52

Alaska OCS

Socioeconomic

Studies Program

Sponsor:Bureau of

Land Management

Alaska Outer

Bering-Norton

Petroleum Development Sce~arios

Transportation Systems Analysis

The United States Department of the Interior was designated by the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lands Act of 1953 to carry out the majority of the Act's provisions for administering the mineral leasing and develop- ment of offshore areas of the United States under federal jurisdiction. Within the Department,the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has the responsibility to meet requirements of the National Environmental

Policy

Act of 1969 (NEPA) as well as other legislation and regulations dealing with the effects of offshore development.In Alaska, unique cultural differences and climatic conditions create a need for developing addi- tional socioeconomic and environmental iriformation to improve OCS deci- sion making at all governmental Levels.In fulfillment of its federal responsibilities and with an awareness of these additional information needs,the BLM has initiated several investigative programs, one of which is the Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program (SESP). The Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program is a multi-year research effort which attempts to predict and evaluate the effects of Alaska OCS Petroleum Development upon the physical, social, and economic environ- ments within the state.

The overall methodology i.s divided into three

broad research components.The first component identifies an alterna- tive set of assumptions regarding the location, the nature, and the timingof future petroleum events and related activities.In this component, the program takes into account the particular needs of the petroleum industry and projects the human, technological, economic, and environmental offshoreand onshore development requirements of the regional petroleum industry. The second component focuses on data gathering that identifies those quantifiable and qualifiable facts by which OCS-induced changes can beassessed.The critical community and regional components are identified and evaluated. Current endogenous and exogenous sources of change and functional organization among different sectors of community and region- al life are analyzed.Susceptible community relationships, values, activities,and processes also are included.

The "third research component focuses-

on an evaluation of the changes that could occur due to the potential oil and gas development.Impact evaluation concentrates on an analysis of the impacts at the statewide, regional, and local level. In general; program products are sequentially arranged in accordance with BLM's proposed OCS lease sale schedule, so that information is

timely to decisionmaking.Reports are available through the National'\Technical Information Service,and the BLM has a limited number of

copies available through the Alaska

CICS Office.Inquiries for informa-tion should be directed to:Program Coordinator (COAR), Socioeconomic

Studies

.Program,Alaska OCS Office,P. O. Box 1159, Anchorage, Alaska

99510.

TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 52~ontrac~ No. aA550.~T6-61

s. fQj(+Q_ l

Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program

eBERING-NORTON

PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEllS ANALYSIS

Prepared for

Bureau of Land Management

Alaska Outer Continental

Shelf Office

Pre?ared by

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co,

and

James Lindsay & ,4ssaciatss

MARCH 1980

III 9

NOTICE

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Office, in the interest of information exchange. The

U.S. Government assumes no liability for its

content or use thereof.

Alaska OCS Soc

Bering-Norton?etrole~m oe~e'

Transportation

Prepared by:

Peat, Flarwick,

oeconomic Studies Program opment Scenarios

Systems Analysis

Mitchell & Co,, and

Jame; Lindsay"& Associates

IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Paqe x xv of Tables. of Figures List List 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 1.0 1 2 5 ?urpose .

Scoge. . .

Report.Content and Format..

c.O METHODOLOGICALOVERVIE'A . . . . .7 8 11

Introduction .

SESP '?YOCE?SS .

Transportation

arming Studies

ImpactsVS. Transportation P"

3.0

Introduction

Water Mode .

20. . . . . ..!

213.2.1 Marine Terminals...,.. . . . .

3.2.1.1 Port of Nome . .

3.2.1.2 Port of

Kotzebue

3.2.1.3 Port of Unalaska/Dutch tla~bor. . . . . . .

3.2.2 Marine Carriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.2.1 Common and Contract Carriers . . . . . . .

3.2.2.2 Contract

Lighteraging Service. . . . . . .

3.2.3 Carrier Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,

3.2.4 Regulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Air Mode. . .

73.
77
82
8A. 84
88

3.3.1 Air Terminals.

Page 89
90
98
101
104
~ 05 109
109
109

117l~o

121
s.,.. . . . .

3.3.1.1 Nome..

3.3.1.2 Kotzebue. . . . . . . .

3.3.1.3

Unalakleet. . . . . . .

3.3.1.4 Anchorage InternationalAirport

3.3..2 Air Carriers . . . . . . . .

3.3.2.1 Air Taxi Operators.

3.3.2.2 Contract Carrier~ .

3.3.2.3 Scheduled Carr

3.3.3 Equipment Operations .e rs

3.3.4 Regulations. . . . . . . . .

3.3.5 Technology . . . . . . . . .

4.0 BASE CASE

4.1 Introduction. . . .

4.2 Significant Factors

4.3 Water Mode . . . .

125
126
131
131
133
135
137
140
140
142
144
146
147

Affecting Growth .

4,3.1 Description of Marine Activities

4.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation

Demands and Requirements. . . .

4,3.3 Identification of 'idari.ne Transportation Impacts.

4.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . . . , . . , . .

4.4 Air Mode. . . . . . .

4.4.1 Description of

4.4.2 Forecast of Av

4.4.3 Identification

Air Activities. . . . . . . . .

.ation Demands and Requirements. of Aviation Impacts . . . . . .

4.4.4 Aviation Issues. . . . . . . , . . . .4. . . .

4.5 Summary ofBase Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.0 IMPACTS OF THE EXPLORATION ONLY SCENARIO

5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . =. 149

5.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

VI Page

5.3 Water Mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153

l5.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . . . ,+. . . . . . . . 153

5.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation

Demands and Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

5.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. . . . . 162

5.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

l5.4 Air Mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

5.4.1 Ilescription of Aviation Activities . . . . . . . . . . . 164

5.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands and Requirements. . . . . . 165

5.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . 168

05.4.4 Aviation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

5.5 Summary of Exploration Only Scenario.

." . . . . , . . . . . . . 169

6.0 IMPACTS OF THE

MEIIIUM FIND SCENARIO

6.1 Introduction. . . , . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . 171

6.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

@6.3 'daterMode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 l

6.3.1 !3escription of Marine Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . 176

6.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation

Demands and Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

6.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. . . . .

190

6.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192

6.4 Air Mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , 193

6.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . . . . . . . . . . . 193

6.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Oemands and Requirements. . . , . . 194

6.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . 196

6.4.4 Aviation Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

7.0 IMPACTS OF THE LOW FINO SCENARIO

l

7.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . , . . . . . . . . , 201

7.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. , . . . . . , . . . . . .

201
l7.3 ~WaterMode. . . , .", . . , . . . . . . , , . . . . . . . . . . 207 lVII Page

7.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

q

7.3.2 Forecastof Marine Transportation

Demands and Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . , 208

7.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. . . . . 219

7.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221

7.4 Air Mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 ,

7.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . . . . . . . . . . . 223

7.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands

and Requirements. . . . . . 223

7.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . 227

7.4.4 Aviation Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228

8.0 IMPACTS OF THE HIGH

FIND SCENARIO.

8.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

8.2 Significant factors Affecting Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.294

8.3 Water Node. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

8.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . 235

8.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation

Oemands and Requirements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236Q

8.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. . . . . 247

8.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

8.4 Air Mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

8.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . . . . . . . . . . . 251

a

8.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands and Requirements. . . . . . 251

8.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . 255

8.4.4 Aviation Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258 l

APPENDIX A

Glossary. , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1 l

APPENDIX B --TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY

8.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . B-1

VIII Page lB.2 OCS Demands on Transportation Generally. . . . . . . . . . . . . B-2

6.3 General Assumptions Concerning Baseline" Data . . . . . . . . . B-9

B.4 General Assumptions Concerning Forecast Data . . . . . . . . . B-9 lB.5 Population Based (Indirect) Transportation Demands . . . . . . 8-11 B.5.1 Population Based Dry Freight and Liquid Bulk. . . . . . B-12 B.5.2 Population Eased Air Passengers . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-15

8.6 OCS 8ased (Direct) Transportation Demands. . . . . . . . . . . B-17

lB.6.1 OCS Industrial Freight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-18

6.6.1.1 Inbound Drilling Supplies. . , . . . . . . . . B-18

'3.6.1.2 Construction Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . B-21

6.6.1.3 Outbound Logistics . . . . . . . . . , . . . . B-23

B.6.2 OCS Passenger Movements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-23

6.6.2.1 Description of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-23

B.6.2.2 Helicopter Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-27 B.6.2.3 OCS Air Carrier Passenger Movements. . . . . . B-28 B.6.3 OCS Consumables . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . B-33

6.6.4 OCS Oil and Gas Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-33

5.7 Threshold and Impact Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-34

8.7.1 Water Mode.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-34

B.7.1.1 Port Capacity. . . . . , . . . . , . . . . . . B-34 B.7.1.2 Vessel Routes. . . , . . . . . , , . . . . . . B-35 B.7.2 Air Mode . . . . , . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . 3-35 B.7.2.1 Air Passenger Thresholds . . . . . . . . , . . !3-36 B.7.2.2 Airport Facilities . . . , . . , . . . . . . . B-36 Table 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

LIST OF TABLES

Page

Comparison of Transportation Planning Process

to the Transportation Impact Process. . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Marine Facilities Inventory . . , . . . . . , . . . . , . . 22

Climatic Conditions in the Vicinity of

Nome, Alaska . . . . 30

Characteristics of Bureau of Indian Affairs

Ship North Star III. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Annual Commercial Vessel Activity in

Nome Harbor, 1972-1977 39

Port of Nome Throughput Tonnage for Period 1970 to 1977 . , 41

Port of Nome Annual Per Capita

Throughput Tonnage, 1970 to 1977. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Port of Nome -1977 Commodity Tonnage

by Origin and Destination.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Port of Nome -Projected 1980 Tonnage

by Linehaul Handling Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Dates of Ice Breakup and Freezeup

In the Vicinity ofKotzebue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Climatic Conditions in the Vicinity of

Kotzebue, Alaska . , 60

Port of

Kotzebue -1977 Commodity Tonnage

by Origin and Destination . . . . . . . . . . . .

Port of Kotzebue -Projected 1980 Tonnage

by Linehaul Handling Categories . . . . . . . . .

Iliuliuk Harbor -Vessel Activity - 1972-1977 , .

Iliuliuk Harbor -Throughput Tonnage - 1968-1977.

Iliuliuk Harbor -1977 Domestic Commodity Tonnage

by Origin and Destination . . . . . . . . . . . .

Iliuliuk Harbor -Percentage Distribution of

Outbound Commodities - Domestic Ports - 1977. . .

Marine Carriers Serving Norton Sound. . . . . . .

. . . . .64 . . . . .66quotesdbs_dbs19.pdfusesText_25