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PROM(C) 9

EDINBURGH AIRPORT RAIL LINK (EARL) BILL

ADDITIONAL WRITTEN EVIDENCE ON BEHALF OF THE PROMOTER (TIE LTD) ON THE EARL TIMETABLE

1. In its Preliminary Stage report (paragraph 70), the EARL Bill

Committee requested indicated that it would seek written evidence from the Promoter on the ability of the proposed EARL rail timetable to accommodate the needs of all passengers, including where possible a comparison of the flight times - arrivals and departures - at Edinburgh Airport, with the band width of operating times of EARL services arriving and departing the station at Edinburgh Airport.

2. It can be demonstrated that there

is sufficient overlap between the air and rail timetables to allow the great majority of air passengers to access or depart from the airport by rail.

3. It is important to appreciate that there will be no EARL timetable per se,

but a timetable for rail services in Central Scotland, some of which are diverted via the new infrastructure and the Airport Station. In submitting the Bill to Parliament, the Promot er is not prescribing a working timetable for the services calling at the airport, but is seeking to demonstrate that the defined numbers of trains would be able to call at the Airport Station with an acceptable level of timekeeping and reliability (termed performance in the railway industry), given the design of the infrastructure, and assumed rolling stock performance characteristics.

4. The timetable which will eventually operate, together with which

operators will deliver the services through the airport station (i.e. GNER and/or Virgin as well as ScotRail), will be decided through the normal bidding process at the annual "timetable conference" operated by Network Rail following rules laid down by the Rail Regulator, the year before commencement of services.

5. The Bill assumes a timetable based on the December 2005 timetable,

with 8 trains per hour in each dire ction diverted through the Airport Station. However there will be many changes to this timetable before the commissioning of EARL including inter alia: the commissioning of the other major projects, particularly Airdrie-

Bathgate (new services and

infrastructure changes); ongoing work by Network Rail to improve the network e.g. line speed improvements in Fife and at Grangemouth Junction, signalling improvements in the Larbert-Stirling area and the Forth Bridge and many others; 1 changes to Rules of the Route and Rules of the Plan; 1 service alterations or additions in response to Transport Scotland's provision of capacity in response to growing demand.

6. At this stage of the development of the project we can provide

commentary in two areas: what happens now - first and last trains compared with the airport hourly profiles of arrivals and departures; and what could happen in the future. Comparison of Existing Railway and Airport Timetables.

7. Taking the current railway timetable (summer 2006), the following table

shows the first and last trains on the routes which will access the airport station, together with their estimated arrival times there. Edinburgh- Airport Depart Edinburgh Park Airport (Est)*

First 05:18 05:27 05:30 (Stirling service)

Last 23:33 N/A 23:44 (Perth service)

Glasgow-Edinburgh Depart Linlithgow Airport (Est)

First 06:00 06:28 06:42

Last 23:30 00:01 00:09

Stirling-Edinburgh Depart Linlithgow Airport (Est)

First 05:30 06:01 06:11

Last 23:08 23:38 23:47

Kirkcaldy-Edinburgh Depart Dalmeny Airport (Est)

First 06:00 06:29 06:33

Last 23:12 23:43 23:46

Dunfermline-Edinburgh Depart Dalmeny Airport (Est)

First 06:55 N/A 07:14

Last 23:22 23:37 23:41

Perth-Edinburgh Depart Dalmeny Airport (Est)

First 06:14 07:40 07:45

Last 22:25 N/A 23:45

Dundee-Edinburgh Depart Dalmeny Airport (Est)

First 06:16 N/A 07:39

Last 22:18 N/A 23:50

1 Rules of the route: Detailed accounts of access available to operators. RotR provides details of engineering works and No Trains Periods, to inform train operators of network capability and availability, and to facilitate planning of rail services based on common and correct understanding. Rules of the Plan are rules regulating factors necessary to enable trains to be scheduled into the Working Timetable, such as engineering and performance allowances. 2

8. The schedule of flights from Edinburgh Airport is complex, varies from

day to day and contains freight and military flights. It is therefore unwieldy and difficult to assimilate.

9. Typically scheduled flights get underway with the 05:10 easyJet flight

to Luton and the 05:15 British Midland flight to Heathrow. At the other end of the day flights are infrequent after 23:00 hours finishing with the

23:55 hours flights to Birmingham and Gatwick.

10. However times of first and last flights are less meaningful than an

illustration of the volume of passengers accessing the terminal. This reflects not just flight times, but also the size of aircraft and their passenger loads. A Twin Otter flight to Broadford, Isle of Skye cannot be considered comparable to Boeing 767 flights to Heathrow or

Atlanta.

11. Also, flight departures and arrivals

at the very begi nning and end of the timetable are much less frequent than in the peak hours of the schedule.

12. A much more meaningful analysis is presented in the diagram below,

which shows the hourly distribution of passengers passing through the terminal building, both arrivi ng and departing (Source: Edinburgh Airport Master Plan 2006). This is the analysis which is required to assess the relevance and functionality of EARL.

13. The graph shows that the volume of flights is much greater between

the first and last times mentioned above. There is a sharp morning peak associated with business travel to London and a more spread out and slightly lower peak in the afternoon/early evening. The trough between these peaks has partially filled in recent years with the advent of more international traffic, e.g. the

Delta Airlines direct flight to Atlanta

Georgia, and the Continental flight to Newark, New Jersey. 3

14. Comparison of the railway timetable and the airport hourly profile

shows that the number of airport passengers arriving or departing after railway services cease is almost zero. In the morning there is a slightly greater issue, with the departure peak from the airport starting to build before the commencement of the railway timetable. One train service arrives at the airport as early as 05:27, with most routes in full swing by

0600, although no "up services" (i.e. going to Edinburgh) could arrive at

the Airport before 0600 on the current timetable. Even so, the area under the curve which precedes the commencement of the railway timetable is relatively small.

15. This demonstrates clearly that the great majority of airport departures

and arrivals would be serviced by the existing timetable, although a significant minority of early morning departing air travellers would not be able to access the airport by rail.

16. It should also be remembered that other dedicated links, including

Heathrow Express, do not provide services which cover the entire airport flight timetable. Despite this Heathrow Express is considered to be an outstanding success.

17. The Heathrow Express timetable begins and ends as shown below and

is broadly similar to the proposed operating times for EARL.

Heathrow-Paddington Depart Arrive

First 05:02 05:17

Last 23:52 00:07

Paddington-Heathrow Depart Arrive

First 05:10 05:25

Last 23:40 23:55

4

Future Possibilities

18. Although it has been demonstrated that the existing rail timetable does

provide service coverage comparable with Heathrow Express and makes possible rail travel to meet the great majority of flights, it may also be possible further to widen the morning access window. The Promoter is aware of various strategies which could be brought to bear to widen the operational window. However, these are broad tactical opportunities at this stage and not worked-up options currently under consideration and evaluation.

19. It should be clearly understood that the EARL business case modelling

only assumes existing services, i.e. the worst-case scenario which assumes that the earliest flights in and out are not going to contribute to rail patronage. Potential developments therefore represent an additional revenue generation opportunity.

Summary

20. The Promoter notes that:

passengers on the great majority of inbound and outbound flights would have access to train services; some services in the existing timetable would call at the airport before

0600 e.g.:

05:18 Edinburgh to Stirling ETA Edinburgh Airport 05:27

05:40 Edinburgh to Kirkcaldy ETA Edinburgh Airport 05:51;

at present no "up" services (i.e. to Edinburgh) access the Airport before 0600;
a number of possible broad strategies exist for widening the operation window; and the patronage modelling used for the EARL business case reflects only the current times of operation, and so any future widening of the access window would represents an opportunity for increased revenue.

11 December 2006

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