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Effects of Novel Coronavirus

(COVID-19) on Civil Aviation:

Economic Impact Analysis

Montréal, Canada

27January 2023

Economic Development -Air Transport Bureau

Contents

Executive Summary:

Economic Impact in Brief

Scenario Building

Analytical consideration

Shapes of Economic

Recession and Recovery

Indicative Scenarios and

Paths Forward

2

2020/2021 Results and 2022

Estimates: Global

2020/2021 Results and 2022

Estimates: Regional

Breakdown

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

Executive Summary: Economic Impact in Brief

3

2022 figures and estimates herein are subject to changes, and will be updated

with the situation evolving and more information available. Source: ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form A and A-S plus ICAO estimates.

World passenger traffic collapses with

unprecedented decline in history 4

World passenger traffic evolution

1945 -2022

2021 vs. 2019-49%

2020 vs. 2019-60%

2022 vs. 2019-28% to -29%

Decline in world total passengers

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2020 (actual results), compared to 2019 levels: Overall reduction of 50% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 2,703 million passengers (-60%) Approx. USD 372 billion lossof gross passenger operating revenues of airlines 5

Year 2020/2021 results:

World total passenger traffic

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2021 (preliminary estimates), compared to 2019 levels: Overall reduction of 40% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 2,201 million passengers (-49%) Approx. USD 324 billion lossof gross passenger operating revenues of airlines 0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450

Passenger Numbers (million)

InternationalDomestic2019 total

Moderate recovery in domestic travel

while international travel remained stagnant

Source: ICAO estimates

Monthly passenger numbers in 2020-21-22 vs. 2019

6

Regional difference in resilience and

speed of recovery

Comparison of total seat capacity by region

(7-day average, compared to 2019)

Source: ICAO ADS-B7

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

Jan 20Mar 20May 20Jul 20Sep 20Nov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22

Scenarios for passenger number

Actual

Scenario 1

Scenario 1a

Scenario 2

Scenario 2a

Reference

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

Jan 20Mar 20May 20Jul 20Sep 20Nov 20Jan 21Mar 21May 21Jul 21Sep 21Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22

Scenarios for passenger seat capacity

Actual

Scenario 1

Scenario 1a

Scenario 2

Scenario 2a

Reference

8

Year 2022 outlook:

Due to uncertainty, consider 4 different paths

The actual impacts will depend on duration and magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence for air travel, and economic conditions, etc. -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Jan 21Feb 21Mar 21Apr 21May 21Jun 21Jul 21Aug 21Sep 21Oct 21Nov 21Dec 21Jan 22Feb 22Mar 22Apr 22May 22Jun 22Jul 22Aug 22Sep 22Oct 22Nov 22Dec 22

Outlook 2022 (compared to 2019 levels)

Seat capacity (Low)Seat capacity (High)

Passenger number (Low)Passenger number (High)

9

Domestic passenger traffic (2022, vs. 2019)

Overall reduction of 19% to 20% of seats

offered by airlines

Overall reduction of 620 to 621 million

passengers (-23% to -24%)

Approx. USD 51 to 51 billion lossof gross

operating revenues of airlines

International passenger traffic (2022, vs. 2019)

Overall reduction of 33% to 34% of seats

offered by airlines

Overall reduction of 658 to 660 million

passengers (-35% to -36%)

Approx. USD 123 to 124 billion lossof

gross operating revenues of airlines

Year 2022 outlook:

International and domestic passenger traffic

The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2022 (estimated results), compared to 2019 levels: Overall reduction of 25% to 26% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 1,278 to 1,281 million passengers (-28% to -29%) Approx. USD 174 to 175 billion lossof gross passenger operating revenues of airlines

Scenario Building

10

Scope of analysis

11 Analysis focuses on simultaneous supply shock and drop in demand in a near-term, i.e. monthly profile from January 2020 to December 2022 in terms of scheduled passenger traffic globally Taking into account the heterogeneity, distinction is made: between international and domestic by month (seasonality) by six (6) geographical region and/or 50 route groups -term traffic forecasts (LTF) Analysis is based on forward-looking scenarios, which will be continuously adjusted and updated

Analytical Consideration

12 Geographical disparity of international-domestic passenger traffic mix

Difference in market size among regions

Potential difference in resilience and speed of recovery Outbreak timing that impacts when traffic would bottom out Gap between what is scheduled and actual operations Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates

International share of passenger traffic

decreased in all regions in 2019-2020-2021 Share of international-domestic passenger traffic by region (2019-2020-2021, based on from/to State) 13 Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates

Europe accounted for over half of the world

international traffic in 2021

Number of international passengers by region

(2019-2020-2021, based on from/to State) Share

2021 vs. 2019

14 Source: ICAO long-term traffic forecasts, ADS-B and estimates

North America overtook China with over 30%

share of world domestic passengers in 2021

Number of domestic passengers by Route Group

(2019-2020-2021) Share

2021 vs. 2019

15 Asia/Pacific and North America have experienced 20% to 25% less decline in domestic passenger traffic than international in 2020 16

Domestic passenger traffic often exhibits more

resilience than international

Domestic seat capacity reduction

(7-day average, compared to 2019)

International seat capacity reduction

(7-day average, compared to 2019)

Source: ICAO ADS-B operation data

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20%quotesdbs_dbs4.pdfusesText_8