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ChinaG20 average

(tCO2e/capita) 1

Country Facts 2018

Source: CAT 2018

Based on implemented policies, China"s GHG emissions are expected to increase to between 11,779 and 13,437 MtCO2e by 2030 (excl. forestry). This is not in line with an emission pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. 1 China's NDC, with CO2 emissions peaking around 2030, is not consistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature limit but would lead to a warming of between 3°C and 4°C. 2 China shows strong progress on energy efficiency for buildings and renewable energy but generally sectoral policies still fall short of being consistent with the Paris Agreement, especially on coal. 3

China's coal consumption

increased again in 2017, after a three-year decline, bringing uncertainty over the country's future coal use.

China announced in 2017

the launch of an emissions trading scheme for its power sector, with a trial period from 2019.

China has exceeded its 2020

renewable electricity target of 105 GW installed capacity three years early. More than half of new global solar PV capacity in 2016 and 2017 was installed in China.

This country profile is part of the Brown to Green 2018 report. The full report and other G20 country proles can be downloaded

at: http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2018

BROWN TO GREEN

2018
Data from 2017 | Source: Enerdata 2018Source: Enerdata 2018 CHINA

The gap:

Is China on track

to stay below the

Paris Agreement

temperature limit?

Recent

developments:

What has happened

since the Paris conference?

Brown and green

performance:

Where does

China lead or lag

compared to

G20 countries?

Data from 2017 | Source: Enerdata 2018

+ 4° + 3° + 2° + 1.5° + 1.3°

Current

NDC 2

Data from 2015 | Source: PRIMAP 2018

RENEWABLES IN THE ENERGY MIX

ENERGY INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMY

Total Primary Energy Supply in TJ

per GDP in million US$2015 (PPP)

G20 average: 32%G20 average: 4.72

5.76 64

G20 average: +27.9%

+144.8

Country Facts 2018

2

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018
CHINA

CHINA'S EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE IMPACTS

6 This indicator shows the extent to which human society and its supporting sectors are affected by the future changing climate conditions based on an approximately 2°C scenario. This sectoral exposure will be even higher given that the efforts depicted in current NDCs will lead to an approximately

3°C scenario.

Own composition based on ND-GAIN 2017 (based on data for 2016)

Projected climate impacts on cereal yields

Projected climate impacts on annual run-off

Projected climate impacts on a spread of malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases Projected climate impacts on biomes occupying the countries Projected climate impacts on frequency of high temperature periods Projected climate impacts on hydropower generation capacity low low low low low low high high high high high high

G20 country range

G20 country range

G20 country rangeG20

G20

G20 country range

G20 G20 G20 G20 G20 low low low low low low high high high high high Projected increase of food demand due to population growth Projected climate impacts on annual groundwater recharge Projected climate impacts on spread of vector-borne diseases

Projected climate impacts on marine biodiversity

Projected climate impacts on frequency and severity of floods Proportion of coastline impacted by sea level rise FOOD WATER

HEALTH

ECOSYSTEM

SERVICE

HUMAN HABITAT

INFRASTRUCTURE

G20 country range

Source: World Bank 2017Data from 2017 | Source: UNDP 2018

20,79016,302

G20 averageChina

0. 75
(PPP US$ const. 2015, international) lowvery high high

Country Facts 2018

3

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018
CCPI PERFORMANCE RATING OF GHG EMISSIONS PER CAPITA 8

Agriculture

Industrial processes

Energy Total emissions (excl. forestry),

historical and projected

Historical emissions/removals

from forestry

WasteOther emissionsHistorical emissions

Solvent and other process use

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000MtCO

2e/year

199019952000200520102015202020252030

MtCO2e

12,700

China"s emissions more than tripled between 1990

and 2015, and per capita emissions are now above the G20 average. Since 2013 this trend has slowed down considerably and is expected to flatten towards 2030. The energy sector is by far the largest contributor to national emissions.

Source: CCPI 2018

Source: PRIMAP 2017; CAT 2018

Recent

developments (2010-2015) very low lowmediumhighvery high very low lowmediumhighvery high very low lowmediumhighvery high

Current level

(2015)

Current level

compared to a well below

2°C pathway

2

EMISSIONS

9

TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS ACROSS SECTORS

7

Emissions from fuel combustion (MtCO

2 /year)

1990199520002005201020152017Share of total CO

2 emissions in 2017

Industries

(incl. auto-producers)

Electricity,

heat and other

Transport

Households, services,agriculture9

8 28
53

12,000

10,000

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 MtCO2

Source: Enerdata 2018

The largest driver for

overall GHG emissions are CO2 emissions from energy, which increased in China by 8% (2012-

2017), at a much slower

pace than in previous years. Power generation and industries make up the largest share.

Country Facts 2018

4

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018
very lowlow mediumhighvery high

ENERGY MIX

10

Share in 2017

64
19 2 6 6 Gas Renewables(incl. hydro and excl.residential biomass)

Nuclear

Oil Coal 3 Other

Total primary energy supply (PJ)

Fossil

New renewables 'Zero-carbon'

(excl. new renewables)

Others (traditional biomass in residential)

New renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Total 'Zero-carbon'

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2

Share of fossil, 'zero-carbon', new renewables and others in energy supp ly (%)

1990199520002005201520102017

25
23
52
22
38
41
CHINA G20

020 %40 %60 %80 %100 %

Source: own evaluation

Source: Enerdata 2018

Source: Enerdata 2018

SHARE OF FOSSIL FUELS AND 'ZERO-CARBON' FUELS IN ENERGY SUPPLY 11

OF FOSSIL FUELS

12

PERFORMANCE RATING OF SHARE

OF ZERO-CARBON TECHNOLOGY

12 very lowlow mediumhighvery high very lowlow mediumhighvery high very lowlow mediumhighvery high

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Current level

(2017)

Current level

(2017)

Source: own evaluation

Zero-carbon fuels include nuclear,

hydropower, new renewables.

In China, the share of these in

the energy mix has more than doubled (2012-2017) but at 8%, is still below the G20 average (14%). CHINA

Country Facts 2018

5

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018

Source: Enerdata 2018

NEW RENEWABLES

13

Source: Enerdata 2018

PERFORMANCE RATING OF

ENERGY USE PER CAPITA

12

PERFORMANCE RATING OF

NEW RENEWABLES

12 very lowlow mediumhighvery high very lowlow mediumhighvery high very lowlow mediumhighvery high very lowlow mediumhighvery high 7A

ENERGY USE PER CAPITA

14

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Current level

(2017)

Current level

(2017)

Source: own evaluation

Source: own evaluation

"New renewables“ includes solar, wind, geothermal and biomass (excl. traditional biomass in residential use) energy. China sources only 2% of its energy supply from new renewables but shows one of the highest growth rates in the G20: energy production from wind, biomass, solar and geothermal energy increased by 170% (2012-2017).

Share of TPES in 2017

Biomass

(excl. traditionalbiomass in residential)

Geothermal

Solar Wind

05001,0001,5002,0002,500

Total primary energy supply (TPES) from new renewables (PJ)

1990199520002005201520102017

of totalPJ Total primary energy supply (TPES) per capita (GJ/capita)

1990199520002005201520102017

G20 100
80
60
40
20

0GJ/capita

Energy use per capita in China

has increased by 7% (2012-2017) and is now slightly below the G20 average. CHINA

CHINAG20

01020304050607080

Tonnes of CO

2 per unit of total primary energy supply (tCO 2 /TJ)

1990199520002005201520102017

tCO2 72

Country Facts 2018

6

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018
12

ENERGY INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMY

15

CARBON INTENSITY OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

16 Total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP (PPP)(TJ/million US$ 2015)

1990199520002005201520102017

05101520

China 0

5101520

G20

05101520

G20

TJ/million$

Source: Enerdata 2018

Source: own evaluation

12

This indicator quanties how

much energy is used for each unit of GDP. China's energy intensity has decreased rapidly (-22% over

2012-2017) and much faster than

the G20 (-11%) but the level is still slightly above the G20 average.

The carbon intensity of China's

energy sector has decreased slightly, reflecting a decreasing share of fossil fuels in the energy mix, but at

72 tCO2/TJ, it remains well above

the G20 average (59 tCO2/TJ).

Source: Enerdata 2018

Source: own evaluation

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Current level

(2017) very low lowmediumhighvery highvery low lowmediumhighvery high

Recent

developments (2012-2017)

Current level

(2017) very low lowmediumhighvery highvery low lowmediumhighvery high CHINA

Country Facts 2018

7

BROWN TO GREEN

THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOWffiCARBON ECONOMY

2018
0.63 CHINA

SECTOR-SPECIFIC INDICATORS

POWER SECTOR

TRANSPORT SECTOR

BUILDING SECTOR

MARKET SHARE OF ELECTRIC

VEHICLES IN NEW CAR SALES

SHARE OF RENEWABLES

IN POWER GENERATION

(incl. large hydro)

SHARE OF POPULATION

WITH ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

SHARE OF POPULATION

WITH BIOMASS

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