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P R W P7357
e Indirect Cost of Natural Disasters and an Economic Denition of MacroeconomicResilience
Finance and Markets Global Practice Group
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and RecoveryJuly 2015WPS7357Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized
Produced by the Research Support Team
?e Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the ?ndings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development
issues. An objective of the series is to get the ndings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. e papers carry the
names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. e ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those
of the authors. ey do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and
its aliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
P R W P 7357
is paper is a product of the Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (DRFIP), a partnership of the World Bank's
Finance and Markets Global Practice Group and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, with funding
from the UK Department For International Development. It is part of a larger eort by the World Bank to provide open
access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working
Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. e author may be contacted at shallegatte@worldbank.org.
e welfare impact of a disaster does not depend only on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Depending on the abil- ity of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct, the reconstruction will be more or less dicult, and the welfare eects smaller or larger. is ability, which can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience of the economy to natural disasters, is an important parameter to estimate the overall vulnerability of a population. Here, resilience is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immedi- ate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly. e paper proposes a rule of thumb to esti- mate macroeconomic resilience, based on the interest rate (a higher interest rate decreases resilience and increases welfare losses), the reconstruction duration (a longer reconstruc- tion duration increases welfare losses), and a "ripple-eect" factor that increases or decreases immediate losses (nega- tive if enough idle resources are available to cope; positive if cross-sector and supply-chain issues impair the produc- tion of non-aected capital). An optimal risk management strategy is very likely to include measures to reduce direct impacts (disaster risk reduction actions) and measures to reduce indirect impacts (resilience building actions).