[PDF] Mortality Burden of the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico - Oxford

The A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 11 1 excess all-cause deaths per 100 000 population and 445 000 YLL during the 3 waves of virus activity in Mexico, April–December 2009



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Mortality Burden of the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico - Oxford

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Mortality Burden of the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico - Oxford

MAJOR ARTICLE

Mortality Burden of the A/H1N1 Pandemic in

Mexico: A Comparison of Deaths and Years of

Life Lost to Seasonal Influenza

Vivek Charu,

1

Gerardo Chowell,

1,2

Lina Sofia Palacio Mejia,

3

Santiago Echevarr?a-Zuno,

4

V?ctor H. Borja-Aburto,

5

Lone Simonsen,

1,6

Mark A. Miller,

1 and Ce´cile Viboud 1 1

Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland;2

School

of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe; 3

Instituto Nacional de Salud Pu´

blica, Centro de Informacio´ n para Decisiones en Salud Pu blica, Cuernavaca; 4

Direccio´

n de Prestaciones Me´ dicas, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social; 5

Coordinacio´

n de Vigilancia Epidemiolo´ gica y Apoyo en Contingencias, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Me xico City, Me´ xico; and 6 Department of Global Health, School of Public Health and

Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.Background.The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic remains controversial, in part

because of delays in reporting of vital statistics that are traditionally used to measure influenza-related excess

mortality. Here, we compare excess mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) for pandemic and seasonal influenza

in Mexico and evaluate laboratory-confirmed death reports.

Methods.Monthly age- and cause-specific death rates from January 2000 through April 2010 and population-

based surveillance of influenza virus activity were used to estimate excess mortality and YLL in Mexico. Age-

stratified laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 death reports were obtained from an active surveillance system covering

40% of the population.

Results.The A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 11.1 excess all-cause deaths per 100000 population and

445000 YLL during the 3 waves of virus activity in Mexico, April-December 2009. The pandemic mortality burden

was 0.6-2.6 times that of a typical influenza season and lower than that of the severe 2003-2004 influenza epidemic.

Individuals aged 5-19 and 20-59 years were disproportionately affected relative to their experience with seasonal

influenza. Laboratory-confirmed deaths captured 1 of 7 pandemic excess deaths overall but only 1 of 41 deaths in

persons.60 years of age in 2009. A recrudescence of excess mortality was observed in older persons during winter

2010, in a period when influenza and respiratory syncytial virus cocirculated.

Conclusions.Mexico experienced higher 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic mortality burden than other countries for

which estimates are available. Further analyses of detailed vital statistics are required to assess geographical variation

in the mortality patterns of this pandemic. More than 2 years after the identification and rapid global spread of a novel pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus in April 2009 [1], there is still debate about the morbidity and mortality burden of thispandemicrelative

to that of past influenza seasons [2-5]. Quantifying thehealth burden of influenza is notoriously difficult be-

cause diagnostic tests are not conducted routinely, in- fluenzararelyappearsonmedical records,anddeath can occur after secondary bacterial infection or exacerbation of comorbidities several weeks after the primary viral infection has subsided [6]. Despite a remarkable in- crease in laboratory testing during the pandemic, labo- ratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and deaths crudely underestimate pandemic burden [2,7,8]. Because of limitations in the identification of in- fluenza as a direct cause of death, influenza-related mortalityis traditionally estimatedbyapplying statistical timeseriesmethodstobroaddeathoutcomes[9]. Age-

and cause-specific excess mortality estimates generatedReceived 26 May 2011; accepted 16 August 2011.

Correspondence: Ce

´cile Viboud, PhD, Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892 (viboudc@mail.nih.gov).quotesdbs_dbs2.pdfusesText_2