[PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California PDF S

26 oct 2016 · November 2016 Election 6 State and National Issues 14 Regional Map 20 Methodology 21 Questionnaire and Results 23 Supported with

1 United States President • Map: 2016 Electoral Vote Distribution 13 • Map: 2016 Presidential Popular Vote Differential 14 • Map: 2016 Popular Vote: Trump

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The 2016 presidential election in the United States ended in surprise victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump GIS can offer a geographic perspective of

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To gauge where this type of gerrymandering is taking place and its magnitude, this report used election results in states with six or more congressional districts to

[PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California

Regional Map 20 Methodology SAN FRANCISCO, September 21, 2016— California's likely voters favor Hillary Clinton over Donald While likely voters' interest in the election is high, their satisfaction with the choice of candidates is low

[PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California

26 oct 2016 · November 2016 Election 6 State and National Issues 14 Regional Map 20 Methodology 21 Questionnaire and Results 23 Supported with

[PDF] California Local Redistricting Commissions

In 2008, California voters passed Proposition 11 to strip the Legislature of its power to redraw its own election districts and to instead vest this responsibility with

[PDF] Advancing Justice State of Language in Californias Election 2016

during the November 2016 elections, sending volunteer poll monitors to 1,286 polling places across the State of California In this report, we summarize the

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

Californians

& Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner David Kordus Lunna Lopes

Press Release ͯ

Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle

© 2016

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͯ

CONTACT

Linda Strean

Serina Correa Ͱͭͱ-ͮ͵ͭ-ͰͰͭͳ

News Release

Clinton

"s Lead Grows, ͮ to ͭ

MAJORITIES FAVOR

MARIJUANA MEASURE, TAX INCREASES ON HIGH EARNINGS, CIGARETTES

SCHOOL BOND

SAN FRANCISCO,

ͮͲǡͮͬͭͲHillary Clinton"s lead over Donald Trump has increased ͮͲ

These ar

Stein and the Libertarian ticket headed by Gary Johnson ȋͰͱάǡͯͲάȌȋͳͭάͭͮάȌ and members of other

Only ͯʹ percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidatesfar fewer than before

the presidential election ǣͲͬ percent of likely voters say they are , and ȋͰ͵άȌ say they are more enthusiastic than usual about

In the US Senate race between two Democratic candidates, Harris leads Sanchez Ͱͮ percent to ͮͬ

Sanchez in the ȋͯͮάͮͱάȌ, ȋͯʹάͮͬάȌǡ ȋͯͰάͮͲάȌsurveys, which

did not Harris has majority ȋͱͲάȌͮͭ ȋͯʹά

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government Ͱ

Ȁ, Sanchez has a lead

Baldassare summed up: In this US Senate race between two Democrats, Attorney General Kamala

Harris has built a two-to-ǡ

Most Prefer Democratic Control of Congress

Attention is focused this election year on whether or not Republicans will maintain control of the US

controlled by voters ǡͰͭpercent ǡͭͮ this measure, would vote yes on the measure, but fewer ȋͰͱάȌ percent say it is very important to them, with supporters more likely than o

͈ͮǡ prevention, and law enforcement

Latinos (

for ͱͲ (ͱͲάȌ somewhat lower

ͯʹά no,

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͱ

ͲͰȋͱͱάȌsimilar to the

ǲǡearlier support

With all seats in the state assembly and about half of the seats in the state senate up for election, t

he survey asks about the possibility of Democrats

Likely voters are more likely to name jobs and the economy than any other issue as the most important

California likely voters are divided in their views about the state"s economic future, with just under half

ǣͲ͵percent say

never be trusted (ͮͰά to ͯάȌǡȋ͵ͬά to ͱͳάȌǡ

Low Fa

At the end of a contentious political season, half of California likely voters (ͱͬάȌhave a favorable

One of the casualties of this national election is Californians" view of the Republican ǡǳaldassare

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government Ͳ

Key Findings

ȋͱͰ% ͮʹ%) in

ǡand

Fifty-

Forty-

Forty-one

Fifty-nine

Fifty-

Forty-seven f

Fifty-five

Fifty-one

6170
47
57
46
37

020406080

DemRepInd

Percent likely voters

Oct 2012

Oct 2016More enthusiastic than usual about voting

in the presidentialrace 4754
4659

020406080

Prop 51: School bondProp 55: Tax extension

to fund education

Percent likely votersSeptember

OctoberSupportfor Propositions 51 and 55

5960
5655

020406080

Prop 56: Cigarette taxProp 64: Marijuana

legalization

Percent likely voters

September

OctoberSupportfor Propositions 56 and 64

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͳ

Presidential Election

TͮͬͭͲ ǣ Ͳͬ

ǡand Ͱ͵

"If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: the Democratic ticket

of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Libertarian

ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, or the Green Party ticket of Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka?"

Likely voters only

Clinton

Kaine

Trump-

Pence

Johnson

Weld Stein

Baraka

Someone

else (volunteered)

Would not

vote for president (volunteered) Don"t know All likely voters 54% 28% 5% 5% 2% 1% 4% Party

Democrats 88 4 1 4 - - 2

Republicans 12 70 5 1 4 2 6

Independents 48 24 11 6 4 2 6

Gender

Men 48 32 7 6 3 1 3

Women

59 25 3 5 2 1 5

Race/Ethnicity

Latinos 71 12 6 7 1 1 3

Whites 45 36 5 7 2 1 5

Other groups 72 15 3 2 3 - 5

ten ȋͯʹάȌsimilar to "In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US president in 2016?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Age

Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older

Satisfied 38% 47% 36% 22% 27% 34% 45%

Not satisfied 58 49 60 74 69 64 50

Both (volunteered) 2 3 1 2 3 1 2

Don"t know 1 1 2 2 1 1 2

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ʹ

US Senate Election

ͳ sȋͯͮάͮͱάȌǡͭʹsȋͯʹάͮͬάȌǡ ǡͮͳ s ȋͱͭάͮͰάȌ ͭʹ ȋͱͲάȌͮͭȋͯʹάto ͭͳάȌ; ͯͲ

Harris is similar ǡ and and

"If the November 8 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Kamala Harris, a

Democrat, Attorney General of California, or Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat, United States Congresswoman?"

Likely voters only Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez

Would not vote

for US senator (volunteered)

Don't know

All likely voters 42% 20% 18% 20%

Party

Democrats 56 22 5 16

Republicans 24 21 36 18

Independents 38 17 16 28

Income

Less than $40,000

36 22 20 22

$40,000 to $80,000

37 28 14 22

$80,000 or more 50 13 19 18

Race/Ethnicity

Latinos 33 41 6 19

Whites 39 17 22 22

Other groups 60 11 12 17

Ͱʹsͱͳ

ȋͳͬάȌǡ ȋͰʹάȌten

"In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate in 2016?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Race/Ethnicity

Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Other groups

Satisfied 51% 70% 27% 48% 63% 45% 61%

Not satisfied 36 18 64 30 25 42 27

Both (volunteered) 1 1 1 - - 1 -

Don"t know 12 11 8 22 11 12 11

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͵ Outcome of Congressional and Legislative Elections

Fifty- and ͯͱas

ͮͬͭͮǡ ȋͱͮάǡͯ͵ά in "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Age

Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older

Republicans 35% 5% 84% 30% 23% 34% 42%

Democrats 55 91 7 55 68 55 50

Neither (volunteered) 5 3 4 7 6 5 5

Don"t know 4 1 5 8 2 6 3

In Californiaǡ ǡ ǡ

-thirds "If the Democrats in the state legislature gained a two-thirds majority as a result of the November 2016 election, do you think that this would be a good thing or a bad thing for

California, or does it make no difference?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Race/Ethnicity

Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Other groups

Good thing 41% 66% 8% 38% 58% 35% 49%

Bad thing 31 8 65 31 15 39 16

No difference

24 21 23 26 23 22 28

Don"t know 4 5 4 4 5 3 7

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͬ

"Proposition 51 is called the 'School Bonds. Funding for K-12 School and Community College Facilities.

Initiative Statute.' If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 51?"*

Likely voters only Yes No Don't know

All likely voters 46% 41% 12%

Public school parents 47 34 19

Party

Democrats 62 25 13

Republicans 29 62 8

Independents 45 42 14

Region

Central Valley 41 52 7

San Francisco Bay Area 43 41 16

Los Angeles 52 33 15

Orange/San Diego 53 34 13

Inland Empire 37 52 11

For complete text of proposition question,

see p. 25.

Forty-one ͱͭǡ similar

to the "How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Vote on Proposition 51

Dem Rep Ind Yes No

Very important 41% 42% 42% 31% 46% 38%

Somewhat important 38 40 33 41 47 31

Not too important 10 7 15 13 5 18

Not at all important 5 5 5 6 1 11

Don"t know 6 7 4 9 2 2

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͭ ͮʹǢͭͲs ȋͱͰάǡͯʹά

"Proposition 55 is called the 'Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional

Amendment.' If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 55?"*

Likely voters only Yes No Don't know

All likely voters 59% 31% 10%

Public school parents 60 32 8

Party

Democrats 76 14 10

Republicans 35 57 9

Independents 55 32 12

Region

Central Valley 51 43 6

San Francisco Bay Area 60 28 12

Los Angeles 67 19 14

Orange/San Diego 59 33 8

Inland Empire 45 45 11

Income

Under $40,000

72 18 10

$40,000 to $80,000

59 32 9

$80,000 or more 54 35 10 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25.

Forty-seven ͱͱǡ

"How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Vote on Proposition 55

Dem Rep Ind Yes No

Very important 47% 51% 47% 36% 53% 43%

Somewhat important 37 36 30 45 40 35

Not too important 9 7 14 9 6 14

Not at all important 2 1 3 3 - 8

Don"t know 5 5 5 7 1 -

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͮ "Proposition 56 is called the 'Cigarette Tax to Fund Healthcare, Tobacco Use Prevention, Research, and Law Enforcement. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.' If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56?"*

Likely voters only Yes No Don't know

All likely voters 56% 38% 6%

Party

Democrats 69 25 6

Republicans 45 50 5

Independents 55 39 7

Region

Central Valley 47 49 5

San Francisco Bay Area 60 31 8

Los Angeles 67 28 5

Orange/San Diego 49 47 4

Inland Empire 51 43 6

Income

Under $40,000

55 40 5

$40,000 to $80,000

50 44 7

$80,000 or more 64 31 5 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 26.

Forty-seven ͱͲǡ similar to the

"How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Vote on Proposition 56

Dem Rep Ind Yes No

Very important 47% 46% 51% 46% 49% 48%

Somewhat important 36 40 27 40 42 29

Not too important 10 7 15 6 6 15

Not at all important 4 4 3 6 2 7

Don"t know 3 3 4 2 - 1

ͱͲ%) is

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͯ

"Proposition 64 is called the 'Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.' If the election were held today,

would you vote yes or no on Proposition 64?"*

Likely voters only Yes No Don't know

All likely voters 55% 38% 6%

Party

Democrats 66 27 7

Republicans 33 60 7

Independents 56 38 5

Region

Central Valley 51 44 5

San Francisco Bay Area 66 29 5

Los Angeles 55 39 7

Orange/San Diego 55 42 4

Inland Empire 51 42 7

Race/Ethnicity

Latinos 47 48 6

Whites 55 39 7

Other groups 65 29 7

For complete text of proposition question,

see p. 26.

Fifty-one ͲͰǡ similar

no ͲͰare more yes "How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 64?"

Likely voters only

All likely

voters

Party Vote on Proposition 64

Dem Rep Ind Yes No

Very important 51% 49% 57% 43% 50% 60%

Somewhat important 31 32 28 38 35 24

Not too important 12 12 9 11 13 10

Not at all important 3 4 2 5 2 6

Don"t know 2 3 3 2 - -

%) is similar

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͰ

State and National Issues

Key Findings

Approval of Governor Brown (ͱͱ%) is

higher than approval of the state legislature (ͰͲ%). Approval ratings of state elected officials today are higher than they were four years ago. (page

A strong majority of Californians approve

of President Barack Obama (Ͳʹ%); approval of Congress (ͯͭ%) is much lower, and approval ratings for federal elected officials are similar to four years ago. (page

A majority of Californians say the state is

headed in the right direction (ͱͰ%), and four in ten say the nation is heading in the right direction (Ͱͯ%). (pages ͭͱ, ͭͲ)

When asked to name the most important

issue facing the state, about ͮʹ percent say jobs and the economy. Slightly fewer than half of Californians say that the state (Ͱͳ%) and the nation (ͰͲ%) will have good times economically over the next ͭͮ months. (page

About two in three Californians think the

federal government is run by a few big interests. Fifty-five percent say that the federal government wastes a lot of the money we pay in taxes, and about two in three say they think you can trust the federal government to do what is right some or none of the time. (page ͭʹ)

About half of Californians have a

favorable opinion of the Democratic Party (ͱͯ%), while ͮͯ percent have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party. Fifty- eight percent say that the two major parties are doing such a poor job that a third major party is needed. (page ͭ͵) 55
46
0

20406080

Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16

Percent all adults

Governor Brown

California Legislature

Approval ratings of state elected officials

68
31
0

20406080

Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16

Percent all adults

President Obama

US Congress

Approval ratings of federal elected officials

54
43
3950
0

20406080

California United States

Percent all adults

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Perceived direction of California and the US

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government ͭͱ

Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials

More than half ȋͱͱ%ȌȋͱͲάȌ approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his seven in ten Democrats approve of Governor Brown compared to one in three Republicans and half of independents. Across regions, approval is highest in the San ȋͲͭ%) and Los Angeles ȋͲͯ%Ȍǡȋͱ͵%), ȋͱͲάȌare more likely than whites (Ͱʹ%) to approve.

In November, all seats in the California State Assembly and half of the seats in the California State

, but it was much loweͮͬͭͮȋͮʹάǡͮͭά voters). Today, about six in ten Democrats approve of the state legislature, compared to fewer ȋͮͯ%Ȍȋͯͱ%). About half of residents in ȋͱͭάȌthe San Francȋͱͬ%) approve, compared to fewer elsewhere (ͰͱάȀǡͰͭά ǡͯͳ% Central Valley). Approval is higher among Asian ȋͱ͵%) ȋͱͱ%) than among African Americans (ͯʹ%) and whites (ͯͳ%). "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of...?" All adults Party

Likely

voters

Dem Rep Ind

the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California

Approve 55% 69% 34% 50% 56%

Disapprove

24 12 59 35 32

Don't know 21 18 8 15 12

the way that the California

Legislature is handling

its job

Approve 46 59 23 35 43

Disapprove

33 25 69 42 43

Don't know 20 16 8 22 14

With the November election drawing closer, California adults and likely voters are divided about the direction of the state. A majority of adults ȋͱͰ%) and half of ȋͱͬάȌ going in the right direction. Findings were similar in September ȋͱͮάǡͰͱ% likely voters). Positive

views were less prevalent ͮͬͭͮ ȋͯ͵άǡͯͰάlikely voters). Today, a strong majority of

ȋͲͳ%) say things are going in the right direction, compared to one in five Republicans (ͮͮάȌ

and under ȋͰͱ%). Optimism declines as age increases, ȋͳ͵%),

ȋͲͭάȌǡAfrican Americans (ͱͰ%) are more likely than whites (ͰͰ%) to hold a positive view.

"Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?"

All adults Party

Likely

voters

Dem Rep Ind

quotesdbs_dbs17.pdfusesText_23

[PDF] [PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California

[PDF] FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2016 - FEC

[PDF] Presidential Election Data: Predominant Mapping - Esri

[PDF] EXTREME MAPS - Brennan Center for Justice

[PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California

[PDF] PPIC Statewide Survey - Public Policy Institute of California

[PDF] California Local Redistricting Commissions

[PDF] Advancing Justice State of Language in Californias Election 2016

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

Californians

CONTENTS

Press Release ͯ

© 2016

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

CONTACT

Linda Strean

News Release

Clinton

MAJORITIES FAVOR

SCHOOL BOND

SAN FRANCISCO,

These ar

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

Ȁ, Sanchez has a lead

Harris has built a two-to-ǡ

Most Prefer Democratic Control of Congress

͈ͮǡ prevention, and law enforcement

Latinos (

ͯʹά no,

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ͮͬͭͲ

ͲͰȋͱͱάȌsimilar to the

ǲǡearlier support

ǣͲ͵percent say

Low Fa

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

Key Findings

ȋͱͰ% ͮʹ%) in

ǡand

Fifty-

Forty-

Forty-one

Fifty-nine

Fifty-

Forty-seven f

Fifty-five

Fifty-one

020406080

DemRepInd

Percent likely voters

Oct 2012

Oct 2016More enthusiastic than usual about voting

020406080

Prop 51: School bondProp 55: Tax extension

Percent likely votersSeptember

OctoberSupportfor Propositions 51 and 55

020406080

Prop 56: Cigarette taxProp 64: Marijuana

Percent likely voters

September

OctoberSupportfor Propositions 56 and 64

PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER ͮͬͭͲ

Presidential Election

TͮͬͭͲ ǣ Ͳͬ

ǡand Ͱ͵

Likely voters only

Clinton

Trump-

Johnson

Baraka

Someone

Would not

Democrats 88 4 1 4 - - 2

Republicans 12 70 5 1 4 2 6

Independents 48 24 11 6 4 2 6

Gender

Men 48 32 7 6 3 1 3

59 25 3 5 2 1 5

Race/Ethnicity

Latinos 71 12 6 7 1 1 3

Whites 45 36 5 7 2 1 5

Ͱʹsͱͳ