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Phase 1

Trans-European Railway High-Speed

Master Plan StudyUNECEUNITED NATIONS

Trans-European Railway High-Speed

Master Plan Study

Phase 1

Trans-European Railway High-Speed

Master Plan Study

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

Note

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression

of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any

country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Copyright © United Nations, 2017

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may, for sales purposes, be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted

in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise,

without prior permission in writing from the United Nations.

ECE/TRANS/263

UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION

eISBN: 978-92-1-362939-0

Acknowledgements

The Trans-European Railway (TER) High-Speed Master Plan Study was prepared by the consultant Helmut

Adelsberger (InfraConceptA) and completed thanks to the work and contributions of National Coordinators and

country experts from participating TER member countries, without whose commitment and input this study would

not have been possible. The TER Project Manager and Deputy Project Manager; the United Nations Economic

Commission for Europe as the executing agency of the project; as well as other experts also provided valuable

input into the preparation of the document.

Disclaimer:

Views expressed in this document are of the consultant and of the TER Project Steering Committee that has approved

this report. They should not be considered as the views of UNECE or as binding on any United Nations entity.

iv

TER High-Speed Master Plan Study - Phase 1

Contents

1. Introduction and historical background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

1.1. Introduction into the present study

1.2. A brief history of conventional and high-speed railways

1.3. European railway infrastructure policy since 1990 .....................................................6

1.4. Some principle considerations of high-speed rail .....................................................11

2.

Benets, political background, best practice and status of high-speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

2.1. Benets of high-speed rail .......................................................................

...13

2.2. Social, environmental and safety aspects ............................................................17

2.3. Political background and goals of high-speed rail

2.4. Rolling Stock

................20

2.4.1. Traction type

......................................20

2.4.2. Bogie arrangement

................................20

2.5. Country examples .......................................................................

...........24

2.6. High-speed rail status in TER countries

2.7. The EU railway infrastructure package and its impacts on TER region ..................................34

3.

Review of Related Work, Initiatives, Policies and Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . .41

3.1. Collection of relevant studies and achievements made by other institutions

............................41

3.1.1. “High-speed Europe", a brochure of the European Commission [19] ........................................................41

3.1.2. High-speed rail: CER"s perspective [20] .......................................................................

.............41

3.1.3. UIC brochure “High-speed rail — fast track to sustainable mobility) [21]

3.1.4. UIC handbook “High-Speed Railway System Implementation Handbook" [22] ..............................................45

3.1.5. “Track geometry for high-speed railways" by Martin Lindahl [23] ...........................................................49

3.1.6. “25 Jahre Hochleistungsbahnen in Österreich" by Norbert Ostermann [24]

3.1.7. “Cost-eectiveness of speed upgrades in the Austrian railway system" by Peter Veit [25] ....................................50

3.1.8. High-speed rail in Europe [26] .......................................................................

.....................51

3.1.9. Infrastructure of high-speed lines in Japan by Atsushi Yokoyama [27] ......................................................51

3.2. The technical challenges of high-speed rail trac

3.3. Specications of technical, operational and maintenance parameters

..................................59

3.4. Prefeasibility, feasibility and alignment studies ......................................................72

3.4.1. Feasibility study for “Süd-Ost-Spange" (south-east link) in Austria, 1991 [28] ................................................72

3.4.2. First intermediate report

..........................73

3.4.3. Second intermediate report .......................................................................

.......................74

3.4.4. Final report .......................................................................

3.4.5. Koralm Railway alignment study 1998 [30] .......................................................................

.........75 v

Contents

3.4.6. Feasibility Study on Rail Baltica Rail Baltica Railways [31]

3.4.7.

Feasibility Study for pan-European Railway Corridor IV of the Czech Republic/Slovakian Border — Kúty —

Bratislava — Nove Zamky — Štúrovo/Komarno — Slovakian Hungarian Border [32] 3.5

Construction costs and times of high-speed infrastructure, maintenance costs; funding and nancing ...80

3.5.1. Construction costs .......................................................................

................................80

3.5.2. Construction times

................................82

3.5.3. Maintenance

......................................82

3.5.4. Funding and nancing .......................................................................

............................83

4. Methodology and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85

4.1. Methodology to identify future trac demand potentials

4.2. Gravitation approach .......................................................................

........86

4.3. Economic and trac forecasts

88

4.4. Questionnaires and responses

94

4.5. Input data of nodes and links of TER backbone network

4.6. Examples of the application of the methodology ....................................................110

5.

Results, Assessment, Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

117

5.1. Reference high-speed links

..117

5.2. Identication of potential high-speed links. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

5.3. Assessment, cost-benet analysis ..................................................................131

5.3.1. Micro-economic project assessment .......................................................................

..............138

5.3.2. Macro-economic project assessment .......................................................................

.............139

5.4. Conclusions and recommendations

6.

Registers of literature, gures and tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

6.1. Literature references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . 147

6.2. Figures .......................................................................

....................151

6.3. Tables .......................................................................

.....................155

Annex I: Questionnaires

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Annex II: Extracts from the Project-Specic Technical Specication Design of the Moscow —

Kazan section of the Moscow — Kazan — Yekaterinburg High-Speed Railway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Annex III: Trac demand potentials: calculation tables . . . . . 213

Annex IV:Cost Benet Analysis excel tool

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293 vi

TER High-Speed Master Plan Study - Phase 1

Executive Summary

While the benets of high-speed, i.e. considerable time savings are evident, there is also a strong impact on

distances. Currently, shorter travel times essentially make distances shrink, which results in a higher attractiveness

of aected regions as a location for economic activity. This makes high-speed rail investment attractive in addition

to the local economic benets that arise. These eects are illustrated by an Austrian example, the Koralm railway

Graz-Klagenfurt, a new high-speed railway link closing the gap between these two cities.

At the European level, one can distinguish between monocentric countries such as e.g. France or Hungary and

polycentric countries like the Czechia, Germany, Italy or Poland. Whereas in polycentric countries speeds on radial

high-speed lines may be as high as technically, operationally and economically feasible, in polycentric countries

network eects have to be taken into account, mostly by ensuring that integrated clock-face timetables are best

integrated with speed needs.

Examples in France and other large countries show that time savings due to high-speed are high enough to cause

a relevant shift from both road and air trac to railways, sometimes even replacing air trac completely. The

reduction of emissions from fossil fuels has a very benecial eect on climate and environment. Depending on

selected speed levels, high-speed trains are competitive against road for distances above 100-200 km and against

air up to 800 and 1,000 km. A project in the Russian Federation may extend this threshold to about 1,500 km.

The reduction of travel times may induce new commuting behaviour, with distances of 200 km and more in

everyday commuting.

Furthermore, the gain of safety is not negligible, as in general, railways are safer than road by a factor of at least 10.

The only disadvantage of rail, including high-speed, is the emission of noise. This can be mitigated or avoided by

noise protection measures such as walls or tunnels, which though expensive, are supported by the progress in

technology for reducing noise emissions of vehicles.

All the advantages of high-speed rail are reasons for political decisions to implement concrete projects, mainly

along the most important corridors and mainly linking the large urban agglomerations. But in many cases, even

lower trac demand is accepted, with the goal to foster regional development.

Running at speeds of at least 200 km/h has a number of eects that have to be taken into account for the layout and

equipment of high-speed rolling stock: air resistance and dynamic air pressure, etc. The study gives an overview of

high-speed rolling stock, comparing the basic design types as well as infrastructure parameters.

Examples are provided of existing high-speed lines in Austria, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are described as

well as projects in the TER countries, including Rail Baltica, the “Centralna Magistrala Kolejowa" and the postponed

“double Y" in Poland, the Czech projects, mainly along the Orient-EastMed and the Baltic-Adriatic Corridor, and

projects in Croatia, Hungary, Greece, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. There are also important projects, partly already

implemented, in the Russian Federation, e.g. the existing Moscow-St.Petersburg high-speed line, with the project

of a parallel new line, even faster, and the Moscow-Rostov na Donu-Adler and the Moscow-Nizhny Novgorod-

Kazan-Yekaterinburg project. Finally, high-speed lines also exist in Turkey, such as the new Ankara-Polatli-Eskiehir-

Istanbul line.

For high-speed lines in TER countries, the most important EU legislation consists of the TEN-T Regulation 1315/2013

with its counterpart for implementation, the CEF Regulation 1316/2013, as well as the set of Technical Standards for

Interoperability (TSI).

vii

Executive summary

A literature review was prepared with the aim of covering the whole eld of high-speed rail, in particular the

socioeconomic benets and the political framework, the technical aspects of planning, construction, operation

and maintenance, track geometry and practical experience, as well as costs of implementation and operation. This

review has provided a basis for the detailed information on the key characteristics necessary for all components

of high-speed infrastructure. This analysis is supplemented by a discussion on the challenges associated with

track maintenance and renewal. Finally, the analysis explains operational requirements and the trade-o between

speed and capacity on mixed use lines and highlights some key prefeasibility and feasibility studies as examples of

potential projects.

Of particular importance for high-speed lines is the provision of the adequate technical parameters. For EU member

States, the most relevant regulations are comprised in the “Technical Specications for Interoperability" (TSI). These

specications have passed through a twenty years process of development and consolidation, during which the

initially separated prescriptions for conventional and high-speed rail have been merged. TSIs cover all parts of the

railway system, namely infrastructure, rolling stock, power supply and signalling. For non-EU countries a comparison

has been provided of these standards with TSIs. Although not mandatory, non-EU TER countries are recommended

to apply TSI to ensure full interoperability also across EU external borders and, for those seeking further integration

with the EU, to be prepared for possible future EU accession. Alongside TSIs, the use of national standards may

complement the design of high-speed railways.

This analysis also covers construction and maintenance costs, implementation schedules, funding and nancing of

high-speed projects. This shows that construction costs vary greatly, depending on the morphology and the actual

land use as well as a result of the economic level of the corresponding country. In terms of nancing, most of the

TER countries that are also EU member States, are so called “Cohesion countries", as such they are entitled to receive

up to 85 per cent co-funding for railway projects, including high-speed. Analysis, results, conclusions and recommendations

A signicant component of the study focused on the calculation of trac demand potentials are often the reason

for implementing high-speed. The calculations have been undertaking using as a basis Lill"s travelling law of

1891 where the trac demand between two cities is directly proportional to the number of their inhabitants and

reciprocally proportional to almost the square of their mutual distance. The advantage of this methodology is that

it can produce results with limited data. This methodology is applied in two examples: the existing high-speed line

Vienna-Linz and the high-speed line Linz-Salzburg with the forecast for the Vienna-Linz line being about twice as

high as that of Linz-Salzburg.

In a rst step, this methodology was used for a set of “reference links", i.e. existing high-speed lines, mainly in Western

Europe and in the Russian Federation and Turkey. The results obtained can be used as the reference values, meaning

that they may be understood as the minimum requirements necessary for high-speed investment.

Then, calculations were made for about 80 dierent sections that cover most of the TER area, but are focused on the

international main corridors. The results are seen in ve maps within the report showing present potential trac

demand, and two forecasts for each of the two scenarios which give an indication of where priorities could be in the

future. The high-speed strategy of Turkey is underlined as an example of good practice. This is followed by examples

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