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Higher Education to 2030
VOLUME 2
GLOBALISATION
Growing flows of knowledge, people and financing cross national borders and feed both worldwide collaboration and competition. These effects of globalisation increasingly impact higher education. How then might the future higher education scene look at the global level? What are the challenges and opportunities brought by globalisation? How can countries and institutions best cope with and benefit from future changes? Through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, this book provides a comprehensive andstructured look at these essential questions. It explores the topic of cross-border higher education in
terms of student, faculty and institutional mobility, providing a specific focus on academic research.
Other issues addressed include higher education provision, financing, governance and quality assurance, with an emphasis on the use of market-like mechanisms. The book covers most OECD countries as well as many non-OECD countries and offers the reader specific reflections on China,India and European co-operation.
Higher Education to 2030 (Vol. 2): Globalisation will be of interest to policy makers, managers of higher education institutions, academics, researchers, and students - as well as to all readers interested in social issues. This is the second volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Volume 1 examines the effects of demography, while volume 3 explores theeffects of technology. The fourth and final volume will present scenarios illustrating the main trends
and driving forces for the future of higher education. The full text of this book is available on line via this link: Those with access to all OECD books on line should use this link: www.sourceoecd.org/9789264056602 SourceOECD is the OECD online library of books, periodicals and statistical databases.For more information about this award-winning service and free trials, ask your librarian, or write to us at
SourceOECD@oecd.org.
ISBN 978-92-64-05660-2
96 2009 04 1 P
-:HSTCQE=UZ[[UW:Higher Education to 2030
VOLUME 2
GLOBALISATION
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
Higher Education to 2030
VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION
Higher Education to 2030
VOLUME 2
GLOBALISATION
CENTRE FOR EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
ANDDEV ELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageingpopulation . The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation's statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members.ISBN 978-92-64-05660-2 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-07537-5 (PDF)
Series: Educational Research and Innovation
Also available in French: L'enseignement supérieur à l'horizon 2030, Volume 2: GlobalisationPhoto credits: Cover © Stockbyte/Getty images.
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This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of theOECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries.FOREWORD
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 3Foreword
Higher education and research play a key role in countries' response to globalisation. At the same time, even if no global model of the higher education system is currently emerging, higher education is increasingly becoming globalised. Higher education is thus simultaneously a response to, and a scene for, global competition, collaboration, mobility and cross-cultural encounters. This book analyses recent trends in tertiary education systems that relate to globalisation and draws up several possible future scenarios for their evolution. It looks at three main sets of questions: cross-border higher education, that is, the mobility of students, faculty, programmes andinstitutions; the trends in the governance of tertiary education as a result of globalisation, notably as
it relates to funding, quality assurance, and privatisation; and, finally, the perceived and actualforces fuelling competition and collaboration at the global level, including international rankings and
the emergence of China and India as global players. Like its companion volumes in this series, on demography (volume 1) and technology (volume3) respectively, this report will help higher education policy makers and stakeholders to better understand globalisation-related trends in higher education - and imagine several possible and plausible futures. Completed just before the recession, this book is a very timely opportunity to enlighten policy and decision making during the recovery. Business as usual cannot be the right answer. More thanever, it is essential to be forward-looking, innovative, and to question the continuation of some recent
trends. Informing and framing this forward-looking discussion is precisely the mission of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) project on the future of higher education, led bySenior Analyst Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin.
This project has benefited from the support of all our member countries, but I would particularly like to thank Austria, France and Portugal, which have generously hosted expert and stakeholder meetings in relation to this strand of the project. Walsh and Ashley Allen-Sinclair provided assistance and helped in preparing the manuscript. I would further like to thank all the book's authors who have provided original and complementary insights into this complex subject as well as Dirk van Damme, head of CERI, for his strong support to the project and Tom Schuller, former head of CERI, from whose valuable advice the project on the future of higher education has benefited.Barbara Ischinger
Director for Education
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 5Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chapter 1.The New Global Landscape of Nations and Institutions by Simon Marginson and Marijk van der Wende. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.2.Interpretations of globalisation in higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.3.Mapping th e global environment of nations and institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.4.Global power relations in higher education and research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.5.Tendenc ies to "disembedding" from national governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
1.6.Global priva te and public goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
1.7.General concl usions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Chapter 2.Cross-border Higher Education: Trends and Perspectivesby Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2.2.Trends in cross-border higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
2.3.Princi pal current strategies for the internationalisation of higher education 73
2.4.Student mobility growth perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.5.Three fu ture scenarios for cross-border higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
2.6.Closing rema rks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Chapter 3.Trends and Future Scenarios in Programme and InstitutionMobility across Borders
by Grant McBurnie and Christopher Ziguras. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
3.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2.Limitation s in forecasting growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
3.3.Scenario on e: the world of higher education becomes more foreign . . . . . . . . . 93
3.4.Scenario tw o: as the world churns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
3.5.Scenari o three: branch campus clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
3.6.Scenario fo ur: raising the bar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
3.7.Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 6 Chapter 4.Europeanisation, International Rankings and Faculty Mobility:Three Cases in Higher Education Globalisation
by Simon Marginson and Marijk van der Wende. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1094.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.2.Europeani sation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.3.University rankin gs and typologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
4.4.Global faculty m obility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
4.5.Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Chapter 5.What is Changing in Academic Research? Trends and Prospectsby Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
5.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
5.2.The mass ification of academic research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
5.3.Basic research: the main mission of academic research?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
5.4.Academi c research and new public management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
5.5.The rise of pri vate funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
5.6.The intern ationalisation of academic research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
5.7.A new soci al contract for research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
5.8.Technolog y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
5.9.Concludin g remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Annex 5.A1.Future Scenarios for Academic Research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Chapter 6.The Giants Awake: The Present and Future of Higher Education Systems in China and Indiaby Philip G. Altbach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
6.1.A difficul t history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
6.2.Contempo rary characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
6.3.China and I ndia as international higher education players. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
6.4.Societal c hallenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
6.5.The futur e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Chapter 7.European Higher Education Reforms in the Context of the Bologna Process: How Did We Get Here, Where Are We and Where Are We Going? by Johanna Witte, Jeroen Huisman and Lewis Purser . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2057.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
7.2.How did we ge t here: the Bologna Process in motion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
7.3.Where are we: the state of change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
7.4.Where are we going: future scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
7.5.Summary and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 7 Chapter 8.Mass Higher Education and Private Institutionsby Pedro Teixeira. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
8.1.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
8.2.The long history and recent expansion of private higher education . . . . . . . . . 232
8.3.Some stylise d facts on private higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
8.4.What f uture role for private higher education in times
of mass higher education?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
Chapter 9.Finance and Provision in Higher Education: A Shift from Public to Private?by Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
9.1.Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
9.2.Trends in enro lments in public and private higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
9.3.Is public f unding declining in higher education?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
9.4.Concludi ng remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Annex 9.A1.Supplementary tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Chapter 10.Scenarios for Financial Sustainability of Tertiary Educationby Jamil Salmi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285
10.1.Introductio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
10.2.Trends and factor s shaping tertiary education financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
10.3.The ch anging face of public financing: funding approaches and instruments297
10.4.Three scenario s for the future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306
10.5.Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
Annex 10.A1.Matrix of voucher systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
Annex 10.A2.Matrix of education savings accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
Chapter 11.Quality Assurance in Higher Education -Its Global Futureby Richard Lewis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
11.1.Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
11.2.The developmen t of quality assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
11.3.The growt h in external quality assurance agencies over the last 20 or so years 326
11.4.The "standar d model" and the differences within that model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
11.5.Emerging trend s and the future of external quality assurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
11.6.The breaking down of national boundaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
11.7.A possi bly more fundamental change -the end of, or the redefinition of,
higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
11.8.Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351
Annex 11.A1.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 8List of Boxes
2.1.Foreign and international students in international statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66
10.1.Demogr aphic impact on the student age population in Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .289
10.2.Forei gn competition in Indian higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .294
10.3.Perfo rmance Contracts in Spain: the "contract program" in Madrid . . . . . . . . . . . .305
10.4.Enro lment growth and quality crisis in Egyptian tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . .309
10.5.Deman d-side funding in Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .313
List of Tables
1.1.Select ed indicators of global potential, capacity and engagement,
OECD countries and selected other countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
1.2.Spoken la nguages with more than 100million voices worldwide . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
1.3.Countries' share of the top 500 and 100research universities
as measured by Shanghai JiaoTong University, compared to their shareof world economic capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
1.4.Output of published articles in science and engineering (including medicine
and social sciences), OECD countries and selected other countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . 411.5.Countries in which the number of scientific papers in science and engineering
grew particularly sharply between 1988 and2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
1.6.Selec ted indicators on selected countries and regions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
2.1.Destin ation of foreign students in the OECD area by region of origin (%)
and changes between 1998 and 2007 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68
2.2.Breakdown of fo reign students in the major OECD regions (%), 2007,
and changes between 1998 and 2007 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68
2.3.Diffe rence in salary between mobile and non mobile higher education graduates,
five years after the end of their studies (2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
3.1.Enrolments of students in transnational Australian higher education from 2000
to 2025 by region (actual and forecasted numbers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92
4.1.The Global Super-league: the world's leading universities as measured
by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2007), and The Times Higher (2007). . . . . . . .1235.1.Share of gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) performed
by sector, 1981, 2006 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .148
5.2. Distributi on of domestic basic research expenditures
across sectors of performance (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .151
5.3.Basic researc h as a percentage of R&D performed by each sector
(% of expenditure). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152
5.4.Fundi ng sources of higher education R&D (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154
5.5. Percentage of government funding of academic research, by mode of funding
(% of public funds) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155
5.6.Number, growth and share of patent applications filed under the Patent
Co-operation Treaty, owned by universities (1994-2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159
5.7. Share and breadth of international scientific collaboration over time,
by country/economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162
7.1.Impl ementation of diploma supplement in 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .212
7.2.Implementation of European credit transfer system (ECTS) in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . .213
7.3.Implementation of national qualification frameworks in line
with the overarching Qualifications Framework for European Higher EducationArea (EHEA) in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214
8.1.Tertia ry education students enrolled by type of institution in 2006
(full and part-time students). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238
8.2.Population having attained tertiary education in OECD countries in 2006 (%) . . . .240
8.3.Earnings of the popu lation with tertiary education relatively to upper secondary
and post-secondary nontertiary education (=100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240
8.4.Evolution of enrolments in Portuguese higher education from 1971 to 2006 . . . . .243
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 98.5.Main fe atures in development of private and public higher education provision
in a global scale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .244
8.6.Scal e of for-profit higher education in the UnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245
8.7.Emerge nce of private higher education institutions in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249
8.8.Most common/popular study fields in private higher education institutions
in selected countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .250
9.1.Change in the distribu tion of students (full-time equivalent) enrolled
in tertiary education and in advanced research programs by controlof institutions between 1998 and 2006 (% points) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .264
9.2.Change in the share of tertiary education students (full-time and part-time)
enrolled in public institutions (% points) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .265
9.3.Change in the distribution of funding to higher education institutions
by stakeholder between 1995 and 2005 and change in public funding and public funding per student to higher education institutions (1995-2005). . . . .2699.4.Total publ ic expenditure on tertiary education as a percentage
of public expenditure and as a percentage of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .276
9.5.Public expenditures for tertiary education by category, 2005 (and change). . . . . . .277
9.6.Chan ges in funding according to several indictors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .278
9.A1.1.Change in number of students (f ull-time equivalent) enrolled in tertiary
education and in advanced research programs by control of institutionsbetween 1998 and 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .283
9.A1.2.Tertiary educ ation expenditures by stakeholder source of funding
(selected indicators) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .284
10.1.The d emographic challenge in Pakistan, two scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .288
10.2.Average fees in public universities in selected countries in academic
year 2004-05 (USD converted using PPPs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .300
10.3.Resource diversification matrix for public tertiary institutions by category
and source of income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .301
10.4.Inno vative allocation models in tertiary education, selected countries. . . . . . . . . .306
10.5.OECD co untries with the highest proportion of public funding for tertiary
education in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .307
10.6.Worl d rankings and population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .308
10.7.Main characteristics of the financing scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .315
11.1.Cover age of quality assurance agencies (2008). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329
11.2.Do agencies grade (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .331
11.3.Do agencies publi sh reports of reviews (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .332
11.4.Diffe rences between hard and soft quality assurance models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333
11.5.Step s towards quality enhancement in quality assurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .334
11.6.Indicative specif ic and generic competences for first cycle degrees in business . .340
11.7.Use of cross-border revie wers (2008). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .343
11.8.Does an age ncy have policies and procedures in place relating to exported
higher education (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .345
11.9.Does an age ncy have policies and procedures in place relating to imported
higher education (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .345
List of Figures
1.1.Four zones of strategy making by nations and higher education institutions . . . .27
2.1.Number and percentag e of foreign and international students in the OECD area,
2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66
2.2.Number of national students abroad and mobility rate to foreign countries,
2007 (first countries of origin in terms of student numbers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
2.3.Incr ease in the number of national students abroad and foreign students
in OECD countries, 1998-2007 (1998=100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
2.4.Mobility rate to foreign countries (countries with a percentage of over 20%), 200771
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 102.5.Incre ase in the number of foreign students worldwide (1975-2007)
and projections looking forward to 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
3.1.Grow th of transnational higher education -Scenario1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
3.2.Gro wth of transnational higher education -Scenario2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
3.3.Grow th of transnational higher education -Scenario3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
3.4.Grow th of transnational higher education -Scenario4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
5.1.Science and Engineering article output by major publishing region/country
(1988-2005) (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149
5.2. Number of patent applications filed under the Patent Co-operation Treaty,
owned by universities in selected regions/countries (1994-2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1605.3.Share of world citations of Science and Engineering (S&E) articles,
by major region/country (1995, 2000, 2005). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163
5.4. Share of citations in top 1% cited S&E journals, by frequency of citation
and region or country/economy (1992-2003). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163
5.5.Percentage of w orldwide S&E articles coauthored domestically
and internationally (1988-2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166
5.A1.Four sce narios for academic research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174
6.1.Number of higher education students (in millions) in the early 1990s and 2006 . .181
6.2.Dis tribution of international students in China's higher education. . . . . . . . . . . . .188
6.3.Avera ge academic salaries, selected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .194
6.4.Higher educati on participation in China and India
(gross enrolment ratio 1991-2006, official targets for 2017 and 2020). . . . . . . . . . . .1959.1.Distribution of all tertiary education enrolments (full-time equivalent)
by control of institution, 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .262
9.2.Distribution of enrolments (full-time equivalent) in advanced research
programs by control of institution, 2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .263
9.3.Change in expendit ures on tertiary education institutions between 1995
and 2005 (Index of change 1995=100, GDP deflator and GDP,constant prices). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 7
9.4.Chan ge in expenditures on tertiary education institutions for all services
per student between 1995 and 2005 (Index of change 1995=100, GDP deflatorand GDP, constant prices) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .268
9.5.Distribution of direct funding for higher education institutions by source 2005 (%)270
9.6.Annual expenditure per student on core services, ancillary services
and R&D by source of funding (2005) (in equivalent US dollars convertedusing PPPs for GDP, based on full-time equivalents (FTE)). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .271
9.7.Change in the share of resources coming from households in tertiary
education institutions' expenditures, 1995-2005 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2729.8.Contribution of households to the expenditures of tertiary education
institutions, 2005 (USD and PPPs, based on FTE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .273
9.9.Share of direct expenditures to tertiary education institutions coming
from households, 2005 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .274
10.1.Evolution of tertiary education gross enrolment ratio from 1985 to 2007 (%) . . . . .288
10.2.Current and projected population pyramids for Korea and Denmark . . . . . . . . . . .290
10.3.Enrolment rates by age for full-time and part-time students in public
and private institutions in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .291
10.4.Average educational attainment of the Chinese and OECD working-age
population (2001). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .292
10.5.Demogr aphic shape of tertiary education in the future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .293
10.6.Change in number of students and total per student expenditures from 1995
to 2004 (2004 constant prices, Index of change 1995=100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .297
10.7.Evolution of total expenditures on tertiary education institutions as a percentage
of GDP from 1995 to 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 - VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 1110.8.Average tuiti on fees and room and board at four-year institutions
in the UnitedStates from 1975-76 to 2008-09 (Constant dollars,enrolment-weighted) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .299
10.9.Self-generate d income in public tertiary education institutions as a proportion
of total resources in 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .302
10.10.Evolution of share of private tertiary education enrolment from 1970 to 2006. . . .302
10.11.Schematic repre sentation of tertiary education financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .303
10.12.Funding ma trix: dimensions of performance and competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . .304
10.13.Private en rolment and expenditures in tertiary education: a comparison between
OECD and selected other countries (2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .314