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SPRING

2020

Cut through the noise

Actuarial systemsevolution

Focused on solutionsPERSEVERE

WITH PASSION

Meet SOA member and advocate for

diversity, Rolande S. Mbatchou, ASA, MAAA

VOLUME 17 ISSUE 2

THE

The Actuary

welcomes both solicited and unsolicited submissions. The editors reserve the right to accept, reject or request changes to so

licited and unsolicited submissions, as well as edit articles for length, basic syntax, grammar, spelling and punctuation.

The Actuary

is copyedited according to Associated Press (AP) style. For more info rmation about submitting an article, please contact Jacqu e Kirkwood, magazine staff editor, at 847.706.3572, jkirkwood@soa.org

or Society of Actuaries, 475 N. Martingale Rd., Suite 600, Schaumburg, IL 60173-2226. Copyright © 20

20 Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without the ex press written permission of the Society of Actuaries.

CONTENTS

32

ACTUARIAL SYSTEMS EVOLUTION

New possibilities emerge as hardware, soware

and collaboration methods improve, thanks to technological advances

By Tom Peplow

38

FOCUSED ON SOLUTIONS

How modern technology can help manage and run

complex models

By Andy Smith

44

PERSEVERE WITH PASSION

Q&A with Rolande S. Mbatchou, ASA, MAAA,

managing actuary, Provider & Network Data Science, at Health Care Service Corporation

PHOTO: JOEL MAISONET

10

CUT THROUGH THE NOISE

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are a leap forward for life and annuity actuarial modeling By Dave Czernicki, Peter Carlson, Jean-Philippe Larochelle and Jonathan DeGange 18

BETTER WITH AGE

Predicting mortality for post-level term insurance

By Martin Snow and Adam Haber

26

RIDING THE ERM WAVE

A brief history of ERM modeling and what"s coming next

By Rich Lauria

M.J. Mrvica Associates Inc.

2 West Taunton Avenue

Berlin, NJ 08009

Phone: 856.768.9360

Fax: 856.753.0064

Email: dmather@mrvica.com

ADVERTISING INFORMATION

Inquiries about advertising

should be directed to:

DEPARTMENTS

CONTENTS

CREATIVE SERVICES

Kathleen Hagan

Associate Director of Content

Enrique “Rick" Cruz

Senior Art Director

Kory Olsen, FSA, CERA, MAAA

Kory.Olsen@PacificLife.com

Andrew D. Rallis

FSA, MAAA

arallis@metlife.com

Anna Clarke

Senior Director, Marketing &

Communications

aclarke@soa.org

Cheré LaRose

Director of Member &

Candidate Communications

clarose@soa.org

Julia Anderson Bauer

Publications Manager

jandersonbauer@soa.org

Jacque Kirkwood

Magazine Staff Editor

jkirkwood@soa.org

Erin Pierce

Magazine Staff Designer

epierce@soa.org

The Actuary

is published bimonthly (February/March, April/May, June/July,

August/September, October/November,

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Actuaries, 475 N. Martingale Rd., Suite

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The Actuary is free to members of the

Society of Actuaries. Send subscription

requests to customerservice@soa.org

Matthew Cuculic, FSA, CERA

mcuculic@humana.com

Sara Goldberg, FSA, MAAA

sara.goldberg@genre.com

Kelly Hennigan, FSA, CFA

Kelly.Hennigan@venerableannuity.com

Jason Hiquet, FSA, CERA

jhiquet@deloitte.com

Olga Jacobs, FSA, MAAA

olga_jacobs@uhc.comTim Koenig, ASA, MAAA timothy.koenig@pwc.com

Dave Snell, ASA, MAAA

Dave@ActuariesAndTechnology.com

Martin Snow, FSA, MAAA

martin@atidot.com

Ricardo Trachtman, FSA, MAAA

ricardo.trachtman@milliman.com

Nimmie Veerappen, FSA, FCIA

nveerappen@rgare.com 6 8 4848
8

EDITORIAL

Fitting In

NEW + NOTEWORTHY

COVID-19—SOA Updates Page,

Actuaries in the Time of Coronavirus

and more

EDUCATION

The New Guide to SOA Exams

Bill Sayre, FSA, MAAA

bill.sayre@milliman.com

Making Tomorrow"s Connections Today

Contact us for our latest Exclusive and Retained searches.

ANDOVER RESEARCH, LTD.

Lindsay SandsBrittany CarterKathie SpencerSusan SobelAlex Harper Deborah TurnerSarah PriceLisa EvansDebbie FineHillary Steele

Alexandra Stark

Andover_2020_0304_TheActuary.indd 11/23/20 12:33 PM 6

The ActuaryThe Actuary

EDITORIAL

As actuaries,

we need to do a better job at maintaining the relevance and sustainability of our profession and work products.

“The advance of technol

ogy is based on making it t in so that you don"t really even notice it—so it"s part of everyday life."

By this measure, the

technology that actuaries use has not succeeded. We notice it all the time. For example, how often is a project late because the model took longer than anticipated? In this issue of The Actuary, we explore what can be done to make technology t in so that it is not noticed. But rst, let us start with some histori cal context.

The evolution of actuarial

practice over the past 40 As models started to play a larger and larger role in our professional lives, there were those who predicted the shrink age of our profession.

After all, the computer

could do everything we used to do. How wrong they were, as our profes sion continued to grow at a rapid clip. The ability to understand what needs to be done and analyze the results, together with the increasing needs and requirements, has required more and more actuaries.

Today, some say articial

intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) will replace actuaries. I believe they will likewise years has been revolution- ary. Teams of actuaries now build, implement and main tain extremely sophisticated models using technology that does things we only could have dreamed of in the 1980s. We work on requirements that did not exist—and were totally unanticipated—as well as in newly created disciplines. Sometimes we try to do this on our own, but increasingly we are working with software engineers and other pro fessionals. What problems do we face in addressing the resultant challenges, how can we summarize our accomplishments, and where do we go from here?

Fitting In

BY MARTIN SNOW

ISTOCK.COM/ABU

7 theactuarymagazine.org | S PRING

20 The Actuary

be proven wrong as more actuaries than ever will be required to understand what can be done, assure this work is done effectively, and interpret the results.

The machine will never do

all of this on its own.

What then is the chal

lenge? Well, as models have become more sophis ticated and requirements more detailed, many actuaries have become caught up in the minutiae of doing their existing jobs correctly. Often this is necessary to produce an accurate, reliable and replicable result for the audience. But this has come at the expense of communicating our nd ings effectively, making our processes repeatable and producible, and being ahead of the curve on the next big thing that will truly add value that we should be working on. In other words, we need to do a better job at maintaining the relevance and sustainability of our profession and work products.

Oftentimes when we

hear of these types of challenges, we are told about all of the soft skills we need to improve on— and there"s no doubt that we, as a profession, need to improve our communi cation and collaborationquotesdbs_dbs6.pdfusesText_11