19 oct 2020 · OVERWEIGHT Creating Telkom leadership in the tower space The Mitratel tower company owned by Telkom has been given significant
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See important disclosure at the back of this report www.danareksa.comMonday,19 October 2020 Towers OVERWEIGHT
Creating Telkom leadership in the tower space
The Mitratel tower company owned by Telkom has been given significant ammunition to improve its financials with 6,050 new towers transferred from Telkomsel. Mitratel is expected to change the market landscape with the support of the Group, commercializing ~4,000 towers that were previously unavailable for the sector. The Mitratel deal came in fast. Faster than we had anticipated, Telkom achieved major reorganization within its group before year-end and amid the Covid-19 pandemic. 6,050 towers were transferred to PT Dayamitra Telekomunikasi ʹ unit with 65% Telkom participation. We expect that this deal may change the market dynamics and landscape. Mitratel will own 22,140 towers, +870 towers more than Sarana Menara Nus. (TOWR IJ) and +6,248 towers more than Tower Bersama (TBIG). Given that this is an intragroup transaction, we do not expect (Telkomsel may need to reward its minority shareholder for potential sale gains). But it does have an edge with approx. 4,000 towers from Telkomsel having a 1x tenancy ratio only, while TOWR and TBIG towers are more mature. From previous discussions with Telkom, we understand that some 1/3 of the towers sold have over a 2x tenancy ratio. Through very rough estimates, the towers were sold at relatively logical valuation corridors in relation to the number of tower transaction in late 2019, but we reckon that this is justified given Telkomsel being the oldest player and wanting to build a footprint in the most lucrative locations. Strategic rationale ʹ necessary corporate restructuring. This is a cash transaction expecting no change in the Mitratel share composition. It signifies that Telkomsel and Singtel will relinquish tower assets preferring to focus instead on providing ISP/digital connectivity services. This may also indicate that the tower sector may not be liberalized yet for foreign ownership. In return Telkomsel will lease back towers from Mitratel at ~Rp10mn/month for the majority of tenancies, although Telkomsel preserves the right for more space in the towers to be used by Telkomsel itself, we reckon. Moreover, the Telkom group works in line with the spirit of the new Omnibus Law expected to be signed by upstreaming 6,050 towers to Mitratel aiming to commercialize these assets. There remain ~12,000 towers still in Telkomsel with only 1 tenant with no view of their future outcome, but certainly offering flexibility to Mitratel going forward. Outlook for Mitratel IPO. As mentioned on the Singapore Stock exchange, the deal will be concluded in 1Q21. This is because the deal will be concluded in 2 stages, 2,000-3,000 towers within 2020, with the rest in 2021 mainly because of technicalities. Looking beyond, the IR says that the IPO is the most likely option but that it will be conducted with a 1-2year timeframe mostly to avoid any Covid-19 pandemic effects that may weigh on market sentiment. We shouldTBIG relative to JCI Index
xxxxTOWR relative to JCI Index
xxxxSource : Bloomberg
x Niko Margaronis (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 niko.margaronis@danareksa.co.idTarget
PriceMarket
Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2021F Sarana Menara Nusanatara TOWR IJ BUY 1,400 51,460.5 17.9 16.9 4.9 4.5 27.9 Tower Bersama TBIG IJ BUY 1,500 32,014.0 29.9 22.5 5.8 5.2 24.3 2 www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report A tower portfolio transaction that makes Mitratel even stronger. Mitratel recorded Rp3.38tn of revenues as of 1H20 vs. Rp3.69tn for TOWR despite having a larger tower portfolio, while the EBITDA margin was 67.5% in 1H20 vs. 85.9% for TOWR. Moving forward, we expect the latest Mitratel transaction to give an extra boost to improve its financials, which is the main objective for the Telkom group. To get to 67.5% Mitratel has achieved a leap upwards from the 46% EBITDA margin achieved in 2018. Mitratel has recorded inorganic growth in the towers sub-sector by acquiring the tower company Persada Sokka, a regional player in East Java, and acquiring the tower portfolio from Indosat with a relatively high tenancy ratio.Exhibit 1. Telkomsel ʹ Mitratel transaction comparison with previous tower portfolio transactions.