FHA loan modifications (including FHA-HAMP and mods with a “partial claim”) • “ In-house” monthly payment using a mortgage calculator or MS Excel formula
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[PDF] The Math Behind Loan Modification
FHA loan modifications (including FHA-HAMP and mods with a “partial claim”) • “ In-house” monthly payment using a mortgage calculator or MS Excel formula
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TheMathBehind
LoanModification
AWebinarforHousingCounselors
andLoanModificationSpecialistsPresentedbyBillAllen
DeputyDirector,HomeCorps
Overview
•Typesofloanmodifications •Estimatingeligibilityatintake -estimatingDebtToIncomeratio(DTI) -estimatingLoanToValueratio(LTV) •Understandinganoffer -confirmingfullamortizationTypesofLoanModifications
•HAMP •HAMPTier2 contractualtermsoftheloan •Temporarymodification- interestratereturnstothecontractualrateaftertime •Forbearance- portionofpaymentisdeferredforatimeperiodbutisstillowed •Refinancing(including •2MP-forsecondliensonlyReview- simplifiedHAMP
modificationwaterfall •Determineatargetpayment - 31%DTI -Extendthematuritydatetoamaxof40yearsTheIntakeInterview
(1)BreakdownoftheMonthlyMortgagePayment (2)EstimateofMonthlyGrossIncomebySource -Unemploymentbenefitsarenotcounted (3)EstimateofthePropertyValueExample#1-TheSimpleFamily
(1)BreakdownoftheMonthlyMortgagePayment -$2115principalandinterest -$300propertytaxes -$75homeowner'sinsurance -$2490totalmonthlymortgagepayment (2)Grossincomebysource -Mr.Simple'sSSDI:$1200. -Grossmonthlyincome=$3800 (3)EstimatePropertyValue -Zillowshows:$225,000EstimatingDTIandLTV
$1178Ͳ$300Ͳ$75=$803/mo.CalculateLTVafterCapitalization
•LTV=UnpaidBalance/PropertyValue
•$268,693/$225,000=1.19=119%LTVEstimatetheMonthlyPaymentofthe
"BestͲCase"LoanModification -HAMPtier2:Principalreducedto115%LTV,30yr PMMSrate+0.05%(4.25%),40yearsCalculatingaMonthlyPayment
MicrosoftExcel
Functionforcalculatingaloanpayment
=PMT(.02/12,40*12,Ͳ225000,0) $681.36UsingaCalculator
M=P*(J/(1Ͳ(1+J)^ͲN)).
681.36
CompareResults
TheNetPresentValueTest
oftheNPVanalysisalongwithanydenial.NPVFactors
Probability
WeightedValue
ofLoanModification
Probability
WeightedValueof
NonͲModification
Outcomes
=NPVNoreͲdefaultͲ>Presentvalue
ofthenewmodifiedloanReͲdefaultͲ>lossfrom
escrowadvancesandloss fromforeclosureLossfrom
ForeclosureReinstatement
PositiveImpactonNPV
HigherCreditScore
DecreaseinPropertyValue
NegativeImpactonNPV
LowerCreditScore
IncreaseinPropertyValue
BorrowerEquity
PositiveImpactonNPV
Affordabilityofmodification
NegativeImpactonNPV
Likelihoodofreinstatingtheloan
NPVExample,FDICmodel
SimpleFamily
Ͳ=NPV
Lossfrom
ForeclosureReinstatement
60%40%85%
15%ReͲdefaultrateandreinstatementrate
arecreditorassumptionsspecificto thepropertylocationandborrower specificdatasuchascreditscoreNoreͲdefaultͲ>Presentvalue
ofthenewmodifiedloanReͲdefaultͲ>lossfrom
escrowadvancesandloss fromforeclosure (271,436)+206,324= (65,112) (255,449)+137,511= (117,938)Presentvalueoffuture
cashflowof modificationpayments discountedbyFreddieMacRate:5.4%
Unpaid
Principal
Balance
Presentvalueofanticipated
LossfromforeclosureafterreͲ
defaultPresentvalueofREOpropertyless
foreclosurecostsandfuture escrowadvances $0Modification
Ͳ$65,112
DefaultonMod.
Ͳ$117,938
(260,062)+144,041= (116,021)Presentvalueof
lossfrom foreclosurePresentvalueof
REOproperty
Foreclosure
Ͳ$116,021
0.60x(65,112)
+0.40x(117,938) ________________________ (86,242)0.85x(116,021)
+0.15x0 ________________________ (98,618) $12,376Positive
NPVNotethateventhoughthebankislosing
moneybymodifyingtheloan,themodel showstheyarelikelytolosemoremoneyif theydonotmodifytheloan.UnderstandinganOffer -
Amortization
•Amortization-Onewaytoconfirmthis,istocalculatethefullyamortizedpaymentbyusingtheinterestbearingprincipal astheloan