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OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 1

Highlights

Global: Risk appetite was mixed yesterday, with the S&P 500 index falling

0.1% but 10Y Treasury yield gaining 3.6bp to 0.960%. The Dow, however,

gained 0.9%. Oil posted another day of gains while the dollar index was almost flat. Tech shares were hit by antitrust charges from European regulators, as investigations escalated on Amazon allegedly giving delivery services. US Treasuries posted losses after a $41bn auction sent the

10Y yield as high as 0.9715%. Further dampening risk sentiment was the US

posting a record 142,907 coronavirus cases yesterday, with hospitalization cases expected at record highs this week. Anthony Fauci remarked that a Covid-19 vaccine could be widely available by April, but that did little to firm risk appetite. Meanwhile, foreign leaders have begun strengthening Erdogan all extended congratulations to the US president-elect. RBNZ conducts its policy meeting today and while it is most likely to stand pat on its key cash rate, the central bank may introduce its Funding for Lending Program that seeks to provide low-cost loans to banks. Market watch: Asian markets may open with a cautious tone this morning, taking cues from the mixed performance on Wall Street last machine tool orders. The RBNZ policy decision later today is likely to see the cash rate static at 0.25%. US: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said he was UK: The House of Lords voted yesterday to remove parts of the Internal Market Bill that seeks to give the government the power to write parts of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Peers voted 433 to 165 and then 407 to

148 to remove clauses that give UK ministers the authority to rewrite parts

of the Withdrawal Agreement. SG: Details of the air travel bubble between Singapore and Hong Kong will be announced within the next 48 hours, according to Hong Kong Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung. The travel bubble is set to be launched in late

November.

EquityValue% chg

S&P 5003545.5-0.1%

DJIA294210.9%

Nikkei 225249060.3%

SH Comp3360.1-0.4%

STI2705.03.7%

Hang Seng263011.1%

KLCI1575.13.3%

Value% chg

DXY92.7490.0%

USDJPY105.3-0.1%

EURUSD1.18150.0%

GBPUSD1.32720.8%

USDIDR140580.0%

USDSGD1.34870.1%

SGDMYR3.06210.0%

Valuechg (bp)

3M UST0.090.00

10Y UST0.963.60

1Y SGS0.29-0.10

10Y SGS0.877.27

3M LIBOR0.21-0.09

3M SIBOR0.400.00

3M SOR0.170.00

Value% chg

Brent43.612.9%

WTI41.362.7%

Gold18770.8%

Silver24.230.5%

Palladium2465-0.9%

Copper69160.0%

BCOM73.961.7%

Key Market Movements

Source: Bloomberg

OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 2

Major Markets

US: US equities closed mixed on tech share loss, as markets continue to pivot away from growth stocks into small caps and cyclical picks. The S&P

500 index fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 Composite index retreated 1.4%,

although the Dow added 0.9%. Risk sentiment was dampened by antitrust charges amid fading vaccine optimism. We remain cautious of further downside to the US equity market in the sessions ahead. intact for the fourth consecutive month up by 0.5% yoy. Looking ahead, we result of high base effect and possible impact of recent resurgence of virus in Tianjin and Shanghai on service prices. We think it is almost certain that China will kick off with deflationary numbers in the first quarter of 2021. sharp deceleration of CPI may not be the catalyst for China to ease its further. SG: The STI jumped 3.7% higher yesterday, bolstered by news of a breakthrough in vaccine developments from the night before. The benchmark equity index may face some selling pressure today, following mixed performances on Wall Street overnight. SGS bond yields largely rose across the curve yesterday, with the long-term tenors posting the biggest jump in yields of 7.4-7.5bp. We expect SGS bond yields to continue inching higher this morning, given the rise in US Treasury yields last night. HK: On 10th Nov, the US announced to sanction against four additional Hong Kong officials under the Executive Order 13936 signed by President Trump in August. Meanwhile, under the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, the US Treasury will submit a report in the coming month to the Congress to propose sanctions against the foreign financial institutions that knowingly conducted significant transactions with the sanctioned officials. backbenchers club now, said that the Barisan Nasional alliance will only support the 2021 budget on two conditions. He said in the parliament that the government must extend loan repayment moratorium to June 30, 2021 and it must allow Malaysians to withdraw a lump sum of MYR10,000 from their EPF1 account. bids in the latest sukuk auction, more than 2.2 times of the IDR10tn that it had targeted ʹ and ultimately sold. Separately, it also sold a IDR1tn worth of 180-day conventional bonds at yield of 3.0269%. Bid-to-cover ratio was similar at 2.12 times, suggesting a fairly good demand from investors.

OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 3

Oil: Oil prices continued their rally, with WTI up 2.7% and Brent rising 2.9% overnight. Brent briefly tested the $44/bbl handle yesterday but it remains to be seen if it can push past that resistance today, especially given the the weekend. The direction of gold from here is still likely depending on vaccine developments and the bullishness of the dollar.

OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 4

Bond Market Updates

Market Commentary: The SGD swap curve bear steepened yesterday, with shorter tenors trading 1-3bps higher (except for the 1-year which traded almost flat), belly tenors trading 4-6bps higher and longer tenors trading 7-

8bps higher. The Bloomberg Barclays Asia USD IG Bond Index average OAS

tightened 2bps to 153bps, and the Bloomberg Barclays Asia USD HY Bond Index average OAS tightened 14bps to 728bps. The HY-IG Index Spread tightened 12bps to 575bps. There were very minimal flows in SGD corporates yesterday. 10Y UST Yields gained 4bps to 0.96% off the back of growing optimism regarding vaccine updates. New Issues: Standard Chartered PLC priced a USD1.25bn 15.25NC10.25 Tier 2 bond at T+230bps, tightening from IPT of T+260bps area. Hero Asia Investment Limited (Guarantor: China Longyuan Power Group) priced a USD300mn 3-year bond at T+140bps, tightening from IPT of T+180bps area. Redco Properties Group Ltd priced a USD266mn 3.25-year bond at

10.95%, tightening from IPT of 11.4% area. Guangxi Financial Investment

Group Co., Ltd. (Guarantor: Guangxi Investment Group Co Ltd) priced a USD400mn 3-year bond at 3.6%, tightening from IPT of 3.9% area. Bluestar Finance Holdings Ltd (Guarantor: China National Bluestar Group Co Ltd) priced a USD300mn re-tap of its CNBG 3.875% PerpNC3.5 at 3.875%, tightening from IPT of 4.05% area. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co. has arranged investor calls commencing 10 November for its proposed

USD bond offering.

OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 5

Equity and Commodity

Day Close% ChangeDay Close% ChangeIndexValueNet change AUD-USD0.7280.00%GBP-SGD1.78990.87%Nikkei 22524,905.5965.75 USD-IDR14058-0.05%SGD-MYR3.06210.04%Baltic Dry1,207.0011.00 TenorEURIBORChangeTenorUSD LiborChangeTenorSGS (chg)UST (chg)

1M-0.5390-0.53%O/N0.08110.08%2Y0.26 (+0.01)0.18(--)

2M-0.3360-0.34%1M0.12990.13%5Y0.45 (+0.03)0.45 (+0.03)

3M-0.5160-0.51%2M0.17000.17%10Y0.87 (+0.07)0.96 (+0.04)

6M-0.5110-0.51%3M0.20500.21%15Y1.14 (+0.08)--

9M-0.1940-0.20%6M0.24180.24%20Y1.18 (+0.08)--

12M-0.4830-0.48%12M0.33250.33%30Y1.06 (+0.08)1.74 (+0.03)

Meeting# of Hikes/Cuts% Hike/CutImplied RateValueChange

12/16/2020-0.039-3.90.082EURIBOR-OIS-3.17 (--)

01/27/2021-0.03900.082TED35.36--

03/17/2021-0.049-10.08

04/28/2021-0.059-10.077

06/16/2021-0.05900.077SOFR0.10

07/28/2021-0.05900.077

09/22/2021-0.069-10.075

11/03/2021-0.0680.10.075

12/15/2021-0.075-0.80.073

0.075 0.077 0.075 0.073 0.077

Foreign Exchange

Interbank Offer Rates (%)Government Bond Yields (%)

Fed Rate Hike ProbabilityFinancial Spread (bps)

Implied Rate Change

0.082 0.082 0.08

0.077Secured Overnight Fin. Rate

EnergyFutures% chgSoft CommoditiesFutures% chg

WTI (per barrel)41.362.66%Corn (per bushel)4.2303.8% Brent (per barrel)43.612.85%Soybean (per bushel) 11.3833.0% Heating Oil (per gallon)125.252.94%Wheat (per bushel)6.0851.8% Gasoline (per gallon)119.412.88%Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT)34.4400.1% Natural Gas (per MMBtu)2.953.15%Rubber (JPY/KG)2.325-7.9% Base MetalsFutures% chgPrecious MetalsFutures% chg Copper (per mt)6916.00-0.44%Gold (per oz)1877.30.8% Nickel (per mt)15754.002.55%Silver (per oz)24.20.5%

Commodities Futures

Economic Calendar

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised

11/11/2020 07:00SKUnemployment rate SAOct3.8%4.2%3.9%--

11/11/2020 07:30AUWestpac Consumer Conf SA MoMNov--2.5%11.9%--

11/11/2020 07:30AUWestpac Consumer Conf IndexNov--107.7----

11/11/2020 07:50JNMoney Stock M2 YoYOct9.1%--9.0%--

11/11/2020 07:50JNMoney Stock M3 YoYOct7.6%--7.40%--

11/11/2020 09:00NZRBNZ Official Cash RateNov-110.25%--0.25%--

11/11/2020 09:00CHMoney Supply M2 YoYOct10.90%--10.90%--

11/11/2020 14:00JNMachine Tool Orders YoYOct P-----15.0%--

11/11/2020 19:00POCPI MoMOct F----0.1%--

11/11/2020 20:00USMBA Mortgage ApplicationsNov-06----3.8%--

Source:Bloomberg

OCBC TREASURY RESEARCH

Daily Treasury Outlook

11 November 2020

Treasury Research & Strategy 6

Treasury Research & Strategy

Macro Research

Selena Ling

Head of Research & Strategy

LingSSSelena@ocbc.com

Tommy Xie Dongming

Head of Greater China Research

XieD@ocbc.com

Wellian Wiranto

Malaysia & Indonesia

WellianWiranto@ocbc.com

Terence Wu

FX Strategist

TerenceWu@ocbc.com

Howie Lee

Thailand & Commodities

HowieLee@ocbc.com

Carie Li

Hong Kong & Macau

carierli@ocbcwh.com

Credit Research

Andrew Wong

Credit Research Analyst

WongVKAM@ocbc.com

Ezien Hoo

Credit Research Analyst

EzienHoo@ocbc.com

Wong Hong Wei

Credit Research Analyst

WongHongWei@ocbc.com

Seow Zhi Qi

Credit Research Analyst

ZhiQiSeow@ocbc.com

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